Rent and resale are pointing in different directions at 74135, a tension that matters before any single metric is treated as a market verdict. Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP-level ZORI is $1,441, up 5.37% from a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease-specific quote. The resale block examined below records a year-over-year price retreat, so the rent increase should not be read as a statement about sales. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The historical series shows exact same-month annualized ZORI changes of 5.37% over 1 year, 3.18% over 3 years, and 5.70% over 5 years. The latest pace is above the middle-period pace but below the full-period pace: it confirms a positive longer path and signals acceleration versus the recent multiyear trend, rather than a clean break. Annualized monthly-return variability measured 3.29%, quantifying past movement around the trend and tempering confidence in one current rent snapshot even with 98.4% history coverage. In a separate backward-looking stress measure, the maximum peak-to-trough decline reached 2.52%. Transparent national discovery ranks are 566 for momentum, 2,023 for stability, and 969 for balanced results, where lower ranks are higher; these are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The asking-rent reading is not interchangeable with the ACS measure. The matched ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey places median gross rent at $966. That survey describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents across rental types; the ZORI figure is 49.2% above the ACS median. The gap can reflect their different populations, timing, and included costs, not a contradiction or a change in a particular lease. The ACS result is household-survey context, while the current ZIP ZORI remains the asking-rent indicator in this report.
Bedroom detail is a model, not a set of observed bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,101 for a studio, $1,172 for one bedroom, $1,441 for two bedrooms, $1,898 for three bedrooms, and $2,203 for four bedrooms. The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and it supplies relative scaling rather than a measurement of local listings. Its two-bedroom standard is $1,230, while the ZIP ZORI is 17.2% higher. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents; the modelled two-bedroom figure matches the all-type ZORI by construction.
An affordability screen points to a close aggregate comparison rather than an applicant test. At the current ZORI, the 30% required-income arithmetic is $57,640 per year, against an ACS median household income of $62,694 with a reported survey margin of error. The calculation is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule. Separately, 48.9% of the surveyed renter-household base reported gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. The ZCTA has 10,833 housing units, a 9.6% vacancy rate, and renter occupancy accounts for 51.5% of occupied units. These burden and vacancy aggregates do not prove payment stress, availability, or lease terms for any particular unit.
Broader geographies provide context, not substitutes for direct ZIP readings. The city of Tulsa context rent is $1,272, the Tulsa County context rent is $1,352, and the Tulsa, OK metro context rent is $1,361; each is below the ZIP’s ZORI. These city-, county-, and metro-scope values should not be converted into ZIP rental comparables or used to overwrite the ZCTA survey results. The city of Tulsa context has a different renter mix and vacancy measure, while the Tulsa, OK metro combines a wider housing and labor-market scope. Their role is directional comparison across named geographies, not evidence that every location or property within them shares the ZIP’s conditions.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation ending June 30, 2026 reports a $286,435 median sold price, down 1.31% year over year. This is for-sale market evidence, not rental transactions: 84 homes sold with a median 22 days on market, inventory of 56 homes, and 2.0 months of supply. The direct resale sale-to-list signals were 97.13% on average and 17.09% sold above list. These figures describe ZIP resale liquidity through transaction pace and negotiated sale outcomes, not rental liquidity or property economics. The tension is clear: rent history recently accelerated while the reported resale median declined and average sales remained below list. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 6.04%, solely a cross-source screening ratio—not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
These aggregates resolve neither a unit’s actual condition nor its current marketability. A property-level review needs the live asking rent, bedroom count, utility responsibility, lease duration, concessions, availability date, and comparable active listings rather than a ZIP average. It should also separate an individual property’s sale history and physical attributes from the Redfin resale median, then compare any sale record with like-for-like transactions in the same observation window. Confirm the address’s relevant delivery ZIP and its relationship to the statistical ZCTA before joining sources. The central remaining question is whether specific unit evidence supports the blended asking-rent signal without treating survey, HUD standards, or resale data as a substitute for its own terms.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 typical asking-rent index was $1,441, and its same-month annual change was 5.37%. The historical path remained positive but differed by horizon, while Redfin’s separate direct resale observation showed a 1.31% decline in median sold price. That divergence is a screening tension: rent movement and resale price movement are distinct evidence streams, and neither establishes the other.","title":"Asking-rent growth and resale prices diverge"},{"body":"The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They organize a relative bedroom pattern, but they are not measured asking rents and should not replace live listing checks. HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative, bedroom-specific standards; ACS gross rent is a survey measure for occupied renter homes with selected utilities.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled, not observed"},{"body":"At the stated 30% arithmetic screen, $57,640 annual income is associated with the current ZORI, versus $62,694 ACS median household income. The aggregate comparison is close enough to require care around survey uncertainty. Separately, 48.9% of surveyed renter households reported gross-rent burdens at or above the threshold. That burden statistic does not identify the finances or lease terms of any unit.","title":"Aggregate affordability evidence is close and burden remains material"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling three-month ZIP resale record is useful for direct for-sale liquidity: sales count, days on market, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It does not provide rental transactions, rental comparables, or property operating expenses. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price yields a 6.04% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","title":"Resale data informs sales conditions, not rental operations"}],"risks":["The matched ZCTA is a statistical construct rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, so boundaries and populations may not align perfectly with Zillow’s ZIP market identifier for a specific address.","ZORI blends rental types and reflects observed asking rents, while ACS covers occupied renter homes and selected utilities; their gap cannot establish a current rent, utility bill, or concession for a given unit.","The burden and vacancy measures are survey aggregates with sampling uncertainty. They cannot prove that a listed home is vacant, affordable to a household, or subject to the same rent terms.","Resale statistics describe sales rather than rental operations, and the rent-to-price screen excludes expenses, financing, taxes, repairs, lease turnover, and property-specific attributes; it cannot measure investment performance."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. The measures use different populations, timing, and cost treatment, so their difference is context rather than a direct measure of a listing, lease renewal, or tenant payment.","q":"How should the ZORI and ACS gross-rent gap be interpreted?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled estimates. They start with the ZIP’s all-type ZORI and apply the relative local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. Because HUD is an administrative standard and ZORI is blended across types, the output cannot establish observed rents for a bedroom count, building, or individual unit.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed asking rents?"},{"a":"The required-income value divides the annualized current ZORI by the 30% screen. It is an arithmetic comparison tool only, not financial advice, an underwriting result, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual affordability depends on household income, recurring costs, utility obligations, concessions, and particular lease terms, none of which ZIP aggregates determine.","q":"Does the required-income screen determine rental eligibility?"},{"a":"Redfin reports a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale window, so it can describe median sold prices, volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. Those are sales observations, not rental transactions. The resale median can contextualize the ZORI-to-price screen, but it does not supply a property’s expenses, rents, financing, or return.","q":"What does the Redfin resale record add to rental analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1039.753808},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1052.122982},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1074.555483},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1091.702035},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1086.114169},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1090.546872},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1105.466183},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1122.942715},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1133.330789},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1157.776697},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1183.395411},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1204.213648},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1224.696429},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1214.136232},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1212.545797},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1213.895863},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1240.118773},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1253.011792},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1274.146991},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1266.600253},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1252.060621},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1258.265544},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1259.170175},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1278.346361},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1266.39923},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1292.665146},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1311.526858},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1334.697831},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1327.403826},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1321.876701},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1316.332879},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1316.918972},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1327.175062},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1318.402704},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1319.998723},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1308.586156},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1323.094373},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1333.715427},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1343.92203},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1360.571485},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1358.307193},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1349.564817},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1341.538964},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1351.533408},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1372.224323},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1377.334131},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1383.094773},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1382.75496},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1388.118763},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1377.804438},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1367.190052},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1353.094168},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1362.556914},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1378.775819},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1393.5693},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1397.221589},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1389.433576},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1398.069204},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1402.46627},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1414.669082},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1417.111689},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1427.393619},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1440.555556}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":63,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":0.984375,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1367.190052,"endRent":1440.555556,"change":0.053661525617946904,"cagr":0.053661525617946904},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1311.526858,"endRent":1440.555556,"change":0.09838052283333432,"cagr":0.03177327449797751},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1091.702035,"endRent":1440.555556,"change":0.31955012431574326,"cagr":0.05702480367435547}},"maxDrawdown":-0.02523169914100487,"annualizedVolatility":0.03285911167810082,"consecutiveReturnCount":61}}