The immediate signal in this ZIP is rent cooling rather than an elevated current asking-rent print. Zillow's June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,673, down 2.4% from a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease-level rent or a utility-inclusive household measure. For broader context only, McKinney city context has a $1,819 rent index, Collin County context has a $1,736 rent index, and the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metro context has a $1,673 rent index. Thus, the ZIP matches the metro index while sitting below the city and county context figures; those wider geographies are comparisons, not substitutes for ZIP evidence.
The backward-looking history reinforces the current cooling label. Exact same-month ZORI changes were negative over the one-year period at 2.4% and over the three-year period at 2.4%, while the five-year path still showed a 1.7% annualized increase. Recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer positive path. The history has 100% coverage, giving complete available series coverage rather than a partial-sample read. Month-to-month rent changes imply 2.3% annualized variability, which limits confidence in treating one current snapshot as permanent. Separately, the index experienced an 8.8% maximum drawdown from an earlier high. National discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 370 for stability, 2,842 for momentum, and 2,126 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher, but these transparent discovery measures are descriptive only, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The bedroom view should be read as a modelling tool, not a set of observed ZIP bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled estimates of $1,373 for a studio, $1,673 for two bedrooms, and $2,678 for four bedrooms, with one- and three-bedroom estimates between those points. HUD's two-bedroom standard is $2,230. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and the modelled two-bedroom estimate is 75.0% of that standard. These estimates can organize a search by bedroom count, but an actual listing may differ by condition, lease terms, utilities, location, and available concessions.
The affordability picture requires a separate survey universe. The 75070 Zillow market identifier is matched to a Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes in that ZCTA, median gross rent was $1,858 with a $67 margin of error at the stated confidence level. ACS gross rent includes selected utilities, unlike the asking-rent index, and Zillow ZORI is about 10.0% below that survey median. Arithmetic at a 30% rent-to-income screen puts the income associated with the current annualized ZORI at $66,920, compared with ZCTA median household income of $112,352; the corresponding asking-rent-to-income ratio is 17.9%. This is a mechanical screen only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule.
Housing composition adds an important caution to that screen. The ZCTA contained 25,707 housing units and had a 4.8% vacancy rate in the ACS five-year evidence. Renters occupied 11,573 homes, representing a 47.3% renter share, while 6,315 units were in large multifamily structures. Of vacant homes, 929 were reported as available for rent, but that aggregate count does not identify availability, quality, price, or terms for any particular unit. The share of renter households spending at least 30% of income on gross rent was 43.5%, below the 48.4% McKinney city-context share. Burden and vacancy describe groups and stock in the ZCTA survey; neither proves affordability or vacancy for a specific apartment, house, or lease.
Direct ZIP resale evidence offers a different, and partly conflicting, market lens. In Redfin's rolling three-month ZIP for-sale observation, the median sold price was $459,896, down 3.2% year over year, with 214 homes sold and a median 33 days on market. The same resale series reported 479 active listings, inventory of 241 homes, and a 13.7% year-over-year inventory decline, alongside 3.4 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.3%; 14.0% of sales closed above list, and 35.0% went off market within two weeks. These are resale liquidity and pricing signals from for-sale transactions, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property-level economics.
The rent and resale evidence create a useful tension rather than a single conclusion. Falling ZIP asking rent and a lower median sold price point in the same direction, while the sale-to-list and above-list measures also indicate that many resale outcomes were not above asking price. Yet lower resale inventory and a moderate months-of-supply reading challenge a simple interpretation of uniformly abundant housing supply. The supplied annualized-ZORI-to-median-sale-price screening ratio is 4.4%, but it is only a cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or estimate of property operating economics. The income screen also looks less restrictive at the median than the renter burden share suggests, underscoring the difference between a current asking-rent calculation and surveyed renter household outcomes.
Several limits remain material. ZORI combines rental types, ACS summarizes a five-year ZCTA survey, HUD provides an administrative standard, and Redfin records rolling ZIP resale activity; none independently reports a specific property's achievable rent, expense profile, or lease-up conditions. Property-level review would need the actual asking rent, bedroom count, square footage, included utilities, concessions, lease duration, availability date, comparable active listings, recent rental outcomes where available, and the ownership or association obligations relevant to that property. The central evidence question is whether those property facts resemble the ZIP-level index and modelled bedroom ladder closely enough to make the aggregate screens relevant.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI was $1,673 in June 2026 and declined 2.4% year over year. The three-year annualized change was also negative, while the five-year annualized path remained positive. That pattern means the recent direction is a break from the longer history, not confirmation of it. Complete history coverage supports the measurement, but the current level remains an index rather than a lease-specific quote.","title":"Cooling is evident across recent rent horizons"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom ladder is constructed by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. It should be used as a modelled estimate of relative bedroom pricing, not as measured bedroom rent evidence. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard, while ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents across rental types. A two-bedroom estimate below the HUD standard does not establish that any available unit rents for that amount.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled from two separate rent frameworks"},{"body":"Annualizing the current ZORI and applying a 30% screen produces a required income below ZCTA median household income. However, ACS reports that 43.5% of renter households spent at least 30% of income on gross rent. The two observations address different questions: one is arithmetic on a current asking-rent index, while the other is a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes with selected utilities included.","title":"Survey affordability is more mixed than the median-income screen"},{"body":"The ZIP resale median sold price fell year over year, which directionally aligns with the declining ZORI history. At the same time, Redfin reported lower inventory, 3.4 months of supply, and meaningful sales activity. Sale-to-list results below 100% and a limited above-list share point to less aggressive resale conditions, but those for-sale signals cannot be converted into rental pricing, operating performance, or expected property economics.","title":"Resale weakening aligns with rent cooling, but liquidity is not uniformly loose"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, so it may not match a particular property's bedroom count, condition, utilities, concessions, lease term, or the subset of units currently available.","The ACS evidence is a five-year ZCTA survey of occupied renter homes, while the ZCTA is a statistical area rather than the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP.","The 30% required-income calculation and renter-burden share describe different populations and methods; neither establishes whether a particular household can qualify for or sustain a specific lease.","Redfin's direct ZIP data concerns for-sale resale transactions only. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price ratio omits expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy experience, and property-specific rent evidence."],"qa":[{"a":"The figures come from different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. The difference is therefore not proof that current listings are cheaper than every occupied rental home.","q":"Why is the current Zillow rent below ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent survey. The model gives a structured comparison across bedroom counts, but listing-level rents can differ materially because unit attributes and lease terms are not captured.","q":"Are the bedroom rent estimates observed rents for 75070?"},{"a":"The one-year and three-year exact same-month annualized changes were negative, whereas the five-year annualized change remained positive. That indicates the most recent direction has departed from the longer positive path. Full coverage improves confidence that the index history is not incomplete, but volatility and drawdown show why one current monthly reading should not be treated as a forecast.","q":"What does the rent history say about the current cooling period?"},{"a":"No. It is simply annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the ZIP median sold price from a separate resale dataset. It does not measure rent collected, operating costs, financing, taxes, insurance, repairs, concessions, vacancy, or any specific property's price. It is therefore a cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, yield, net return, or expected return.","q":"Can the Redfin rent-to-price screen be used as a property return estimate?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1214.632489},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1219.963569},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1229.778997},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1233.598395},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1235.294396},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1238.191856},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1237.102539},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1236.290251},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1241.540714},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1243.668112},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1246.035921},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1254.187745},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1262.246378},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1266.746379},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1263.993051},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1262.380778},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1268.867543},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1270.232671},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1271.241909},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1272.229975},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1274.85266},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1280.533154},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1283.368808},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1283.847359},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1276.968376},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1281.270754},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1282.876197},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1292.764394},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1295.004068},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1293.515956},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1297.150737},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1300.573217},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1301.581599},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1301.025736},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1314.039859},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1315.119461},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1318.716494},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1305.861355},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1313.775503},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1311.879923},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1310.651884},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1313.752192},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1318.157046},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1324.327641},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1329.080856},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1332.358796},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1331.236189},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1331.469631},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1329.801525},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1338.032762},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1337.171749},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1339.937396},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1344.771076},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1349.38766},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1351.15985},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1352.061846},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1355.198699},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1360.251893},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1363.27105},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1371.924301},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1382.943221},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1392.730281},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1398.355247},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1391.272628},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1387.629841},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1379.940534},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1379.030921},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1379.072348},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1382.579949},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1397.50539},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1412.824524},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1420.892434},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1428.054819},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1440.987754},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1452.72525},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1473.160641},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1501.281429},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1534.147588},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1576.341453},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1616.195873},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1663.087396},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1688.851288},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1716.520028},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1740.377068},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1764.88083},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1773.037447},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1774.65585},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1784.276546},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1799.162945},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1823.083343},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1829.357616},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1833.440661},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1820.710668},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1813.121017},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1798.584463},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1798.463001},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1794.160981},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1800.291442},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1805.908468},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1809.650699},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1806.837724},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1797.592352},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1793.647065},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1781.585299},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1769.851008},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1766.39163},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1768.179793},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1764.253846},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1761.317632},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1758.337278},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1758.190131},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1748.041658},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1741.801322},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1732.098356},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1730.683127},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1723.670325},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1727.548713},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1716.835619},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1716.046541},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1710.73062},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1714.238097},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1716.359487},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1711.729151},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1710.332911},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1707.388469},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1714.374251},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1711.444617},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1715.957337},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1714.352272},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1718.953385},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1714.396787},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1712.763855},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1704.344295},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1695.177302},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1689.592797},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1685.870645},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1682.105043},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1672.900457}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1714.374251,"endRent":1672.900457,"change":-0.024191797080368116,"cagr":-0.024191797080368116},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1797.592352,"endRent":1672.900457,"change":-0.06936605780574656,"cagr":-0.023678253825197393},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1534.147588,"endRent":1672.900457,"change":0.09044297307854565,"cagr":0.01746760724943619}},"maxDrawdown":-0.0875622578984574,"annualizedVolatility":0.022680498654827422,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}