The main measured tension in ZIP 75149 is a nearly stalled recent asking-rent reading beside a distinctly stronger longer record, while the resale evidence later in this report is softer. Zillow ZORI stands at $1,642 per month, a typical observed ZIP-level asking-rent index blended across rental types. The latest reading is therefore useful as a broad price signal, not as a lease quote for any one home. Its recent direction does not extend the older pace cleanly: the data show deceleration rather than a simple continuation of the long path. That split is the central decision tension, because affordability, historical persistence, and for-sale conditions each frame the same current rent snapshot differently.
Backward-looking Zillow history clarifies the slowdown. The exact same-month annualized one-year rent change was 0.356%, compared with 1.493% over three years and 4.898% over five years. Recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the stronger five-year growth path. Monthly changes produced 2.390% annualized variability, which supports somewhat more confidence in a single ZORI reading than a highly erratic series would; however, the current slowdown still warrants restraint in interpreting that snapshot. The largest historical peak-to-trough decline was 1.765%, a limited measured setback. History coverage is 100% across 123 observations and 122 consecutive monthly changes. Among history-eligible ZIPs, the transparent national momentum discovery rank was 2,076 while the stability rank was 521, where lower ranks are stronger; that contrast fits a stable-growth history with muted recent momentum. These are historical measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The current asking-rent index must not be merged with ACS household survey evidence. The five-digit label 75149 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes in that matched ZCTA, median gross rent was $1,553 with a $102 margin of error, and gross rent includes selected utilities. That differs in population, timing, and rent concept from ZORI asking rent. Median household income was $70,774, while the arithmetic annual income associated with paying the $1,642 asking-rent index at a 30% share is $65,680. The resulting 27.8% asking-rent-to-income screen is not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Separately, 62.2% of surveyed renter households were rent burdened at or above that threshold, an aggregate condition that does not establish the burden or affordability of a particular unit.
Bedroom figures are best read as a consistent modelled ladder, not as measured ZIP bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,345 for a studio, $1,401 for one bedroom, $1,642 for two bedrooms, $2,069 for three bedrooms, and $2,625 for four bedrooms. These estimates preserve the local HUD bedroom relationship while anchoring the overall level to Zillow ZORI. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and it should not be substituted for a market listing quote. The local two-bedroom HUD standard is $1,770, placing the ZIP ZORI-based two-bedroom model 7.2% below that benchmark. The gap is a comparison between different source universes, rather than proof that any advertised two-bedroom will rent above or below either figure.
Housing composition adds an important structural constraint to the broad rent reading. The matched ZCTA had an estimated population of 58,262 and 21,000 housing units. Its overall vacancy rate was 5.6%, and renters represented 33.2% of occupied homes. Of the housing stock, 17,002 units were single-family structures, while 1,516 were in large multifamily buildings; the distribution indicates that the aggregate rent index is spanning a stock base not limited to large apartment properties. ACS also counted 475 vacant units classified as for rent. That count is a survey-based stock measure, not current leasing inventory, and neither it nor the vacancy rate proves that a specific unit is available, competitively priced, or likely to lease.
Wider comparisons provide context but do not replace ZIP evidence. For city context, Mesquite had a $1,437 rent reading, a 7.0% vacancy rate, and a 37.2% renter share; for county context, Dallas County had a $1,646 rent reading and a $1,931 two-bedroom HUD standard; for metro context, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX had a $1,673 rent reading, a 22.2% rent-to-income measure, and 9.0% apartment vacancy. The ZIP's ZORI is therefore above the city-context rent figure but near the county-context figure and below the metro-context figure. Its lower renter share and lower vacancy than the city and metro context measures describe differing aggregates, not a conclusion about local tenant demand or a property's leasing outcome.
Redfin supplies direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence, not rental transactions. In that for-sale observation, the median sold price was $249,944, down 2.37% year over year; 148 homes sold, median days on market were 56, inventory was 188 homes, and months of supply measured 3.9. Sale-to-list evidence was also below a full-price signal: the average sale-to-list ratio was 97.38%, and 15.99% of sales closed above list. These resale liquidity and pricing measures challenge any reading of the older rent history as a uniform strengthening signal, because the current for-sale price change is negative while recent asking-rent growth is nearly flat. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 7.88% screening ratio only. It is a cross-source comparison, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield, and it does not capture expenses, financing, vacancy, or a property's actual rent.
The evidence is strongest as a disciplined screen rather than a property conclusion. ZORI does not identify unit condition, lease term, concessions, included utilities, bedroom configuration, or the timing of a listing; ACS estimates carry survey uncertainty and describe occupied renter homes; HUD standards are administrative; and Redfin measures resale activity rather than rental economics. A property-level review should separately verify the advertised asking rent, bedroom count, utility treatment, concession terms, listing availability, days listed, and the exact-address sale and list history. It should also distinguish a modeled bedroom estimate from actual rental comparables with matching unit characteristics. The practical unresolved question is whether the specific property's current terms align with the moderated rent trend while remaining defensible against the softer direct ZIP resale signals.
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP's current Zillow asking-rent index is supported by a relatively stable historical series, but the one-year change is materially weaker than the three-year and five-year changes. Limited measured drawdown and low variability improve confidence that the index is not unusually erratic, yet they do not convert past growth into a forecast. Recent momentum is the key historical limitation.","title":"Rent growth has decelerated despite a stronger multi-year record"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen based on current asking rent sits below the area-wide median household income, while the ACS renter survey reports a large share of renter households paying at least the selected burden threshold. Those measures answer different questions because household income is not renter-specific and ACS gross rent includes selected utilities. Neither measure determines an applicant's qualification or a unit's affordability.","title":"Aggregate affordability signals point in different directions"},{"body":"The ZCTA housing inventory contains far more single-family homes than large multifamily units, with renters comprising roughly one-third of occupied households. This composition matters because a blended asking-rent index can span differing unit types. Survey vacancy and vacant-for-rent counts are useful aggregate context, but they are not live availability data for a particular listing.","title":"The ZIP stock is weighted toward single-family structures"},{"body":"Redfin's direct ZIP resale observation shows a year-over-year decline in median sold price, marketing time measured in weeks rather than days, supply below a half-year, and average sales closing below list. Those for-sale signals are not rental comps, but they challenge an unqualified interpretation of the longer rent-growth record. The rent-to-price figure remains only a cross-source screening ratio.","title":"Direct resale conditions temper the rent-history screen"}],"risks":["A ZIP-level asking-rent index blends rental types and is not a property comp. A particular unit's asking rent, concessions, included utilities, condition, and availability can differ materially from the index.","ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in a statistical ZCTA, not a real-time count of advertised units in a USPS delivery ZIP. Its margins of error and scope limit direct comparison with current asking rents.","The bedroom ladder is modelled from ZIP ZORI and HUD relationships. It should not be treated as observed bedroom rent evidence, and it cannot establish the market rent of a unit with different amenities, utility terms, or condition.","Redfin resale results describe for-sale transactions and marketing conditions, not rental transactions. The screening ratio omits operating costs, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and the actual rent obtained by a property."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for tracking broad asking-rent movement, but it is not a signed lease rate, a specific property's advertised price, or a measured rent for any bedroom count.","q":"What does the Zillow rent figure measure?"},{"a":"ACS median gross rent comes from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched Census ZCTA and includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is a current asking-rent index. Different timing, populations, rent definitions, and the fact that a ZCTA is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP can produce different values.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent different from Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP-level Zillow ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than asking rent, so the resulting ladder should be used for comparison only, not as measured bedroom-rent evidence.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"It is simply annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin's median ZIP sold price, combining two distinct source universes. It can flag a cross-source relationship for further review, but it is not a cap rate, property yield, expected return, net return, or estimate of an individual property's economics.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-to-price screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":989.89442},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":993.728272},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":991.823824},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1000.21387},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1000.466171},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1011.472648},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1018.738373},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1020.272442},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1026.239411},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1034.953005},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1048.516471},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1051.744787},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1040.720134},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1045.937253},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1055.026447},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1063.980693},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1071.246896},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1077.180341},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1085.035432},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1086.763239},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1091.059452},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1089.657553},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1080.766082},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1083.882529},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1096.225335},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1098.037217},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1103.051328},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1099.221895},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1111.30119},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1116.049711},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1124.321956},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1123.374233},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1129.378118},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1134.263119},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1144.382181},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1148.295008},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1153.998833},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1158.474863},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1159.49032},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1165.19101},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1160.663304},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1159.83175},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1156.005191},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1162.753164},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1161.783026},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1162.66358},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1161.74168},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1177.926056},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1193.4305},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1212.854351},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1218.281582},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1223.605876},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1224.717952},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1236.111179},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1244.832293},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1244.755202},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1240.267181},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1261.239602},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1274.853778},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1292.152114},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1284.372191},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1283.900385},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1292.431857},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1305.224279},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1312.410895},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1324.680922},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1352.857881},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1389.794772},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1425.063974},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1421.302557},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1412.852367},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1415.85825},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1435.66617},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1455.719371},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1469.739633},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1489.806748},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1509.665136},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1520.975106},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1527.174788},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1526.380762},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1509.614444},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1520.147687},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1537.164568},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1547.873731},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1549.826332},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1551.924764},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1570.174469},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1572.277429},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1582.630692},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1581.871507},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1567.160678},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1554.692677},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1575.672094},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1595.702979},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1618.724672},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1622.694582},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1630.256936},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1625.683588},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1624.585827},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1628.661135},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1627.487101},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1631.306801},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1647.587183},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1651.296539},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1641.856602},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1632.547747},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1638.791186},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1635.831495},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1636.396233},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1627.840596},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1635.71355},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1635.313816},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1634.577997},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1636.4533},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1635.554369},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1643.600526},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1647.978049},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1648.286875},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1634.057088},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1636.623509},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1635.789941},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1647.226576},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1641.54329}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":123,"firstPeriod":"2016-04-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":123,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1635.71355,"endRent":1641.54329,"change":0.0035640347908105774,"cagr":0.0035640347908105774},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1570.174469,"endRent":1641.54329,"change":0.04545279674904723,"cagr":0.014927008024524957},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1292.431857,"endRent":1641.54329,"change":0.2701197986641706,"cagr":0.04898417671125066}},"maxDrawdown":-0.017652895992238182,"annualizedVolatility":0.023900885596057547,"consecutiveReturnCount":122}}