Cooling, rather than a fresh acceleration, is the immediate ZIP-level rent signal. The five-digit label 75150 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI stood at $1,296, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, and it was 0.5% below its year-earlier level. Exact same-month history shows a 0.5% annualized decline over one year, a 0.9% annualized decline over three years, and a 3.9% annualized gain over five years. The recent negative direction therefore breaks from the longer positive path. These are backward-looking rent measurements, not a forecast or an investment recommendation.
Source differences matter before treating any rent figure as interchangeable. The ACS 2024 five-year survey for the matched ZCTA reports median gross rent of $1,461 among occupied renter homes; gross rent includes selected utilities, unlike Zillow's asking-rent index. That survey measure is therefore not a direct contradiction of the current asking-rent reading. The arithmetic 30% required-income screen converts the current monthly Zillow index into $51,840 of annual income, below the ZCTA median household income of $65,440. This is a rent-to-income calculation only, not affordability advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence that any household can secure a unit at that rent.
The matched ZCTA's renter base is substantial enough that burden and stock conditions deserve attention alongside the asking-rent index. Of 10,974 renter households, 5,970, or 54.4%, reported paying at least 30% of income toward rent in the ACS survey. The area had 24,719 housing units, an 8.7% vacancy rate, and 1,618 units classified as vacant for rent. Its structure inventory included 14,540 single-family units and 3,308 units in larger multifamily buildings. These aggregates describe a survey area and its housing stock, not the vacancy, availability, lease terms, or cost burden of a particular property.
The bedroom figures should be read as modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces monthly estimates of $1,062 for a studio, $1,105 for one bedroom, $1,296 for two bedrooms, $1,629 for three bedrooms, and $2,075 for four bedrooms. The local HUD two-bedroom standard is $1,830. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard used for program purposes; it is not asking rent and should not be substituted for a listing quote. The model preserves the ZIP index level while using HUD's bedroom spacing, so the figures help compare unit sizes without claiming observed rents for those categories.
Broader geographies provide context but do not replace the ZIP reading: Mesquite city context rent was $1,436.65, Dallas County context rent was $1,646, and the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metro context rent was $1,673. Each is above the ZIP's Zillow asking-rent index, placing the local reading below its named city, county, and metro context. The ZIP's renter share also differs from the city context, but that comparison does not identify the type, condition, or location of available rentals. Wider-area figures are useful reference points only because their boundaries and rental mixes differ from the Zillow ZIP market identifier and matched Census ZCTA.
The history record supports confidence in the direction of the index while limiting confidence in any single current snapshot. Coverage is 100%, and annualized monthly-return variability of 2.6% indicates that month-to-month movements were present even in a generally measured series. Separately, the maximum drawdown reached 3.7%, showing that the historical path contained a meaningful retreat from a prior high. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,583 for momentum, 891 for stability, and 2,203 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. Those rankings describe past observed patterns, not future rent performance.
Redfin's direct rolling ZIP resale observation belongs to the for-sale market, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $259,191, down 4.0% year over year; 128 homes sold, median marketing time was 49 days, inventory was 118 homes, and months of supply measured 2.8. Average sale-to-list was 98.8%, while 17.8% of sales closed above list. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price produces a 6.0% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Resale price softness confirms the cooling rent direction, while the supply and sale-to-list signals caution against reducing the for-sale evidence to a simple weak-market label.
Important limits remain. Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin tracks ZIP resale activity; none supplies verified economics for a specific rental. The ACS burden result cannot prove that a particular tenant is cost-burdened, just as vacant-for-rent inventory cannot prove immediate availability in a particular building. Relevant property-level checks include the exact address and ZIP designation, advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, concessions, availability date, unit condition, and whether a resale listing reflects an active offer or a completed sale. Which of those property facts would materially change the comparison with these area-level screens?
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow asking-rent index declined from the same month a year earlier and the three-year annualized path was also negative. That contrasts with a positive five-year annualized history, making the central historical tension a recent cooling phase after a longer expansion. The evidence is descriptive and backward-looking rather than predictive.","title":"Recent rent direction has turned negative"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI represents typical observed asking rent across blended rental types. ACS median gross rent covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific benchmark. The modelled bedroom estimates use HUD's local relative ladder to scale ZIP ZORI, so they should not be presented as measured rents for actual listings.","title":"Asking rent, survey rent, and HUD standards answer different questions"},{"body":"The current asking-rent-to-income screen is below the matched ZCTA median household income when calculated at the stated 30% threshold. At the same time, more than half of surveyed renter households reported spending at least that share of income on rent. Those facts can coexist because the screen uses an area median and current index, while ACS burden reflects surveyed household circumstances.","title":"Burden remains prominent despite the arithmetic income screen"},{"body":"Direct ZIP resale data show a year-over-year decline in median sold price, which aligns directionally with the cooling Zillow rent history. Yet recorded sales, limited months of supply, and sale-to-list results show that price change alone does not summarize resale conditions. The rent-price figure remains a cross-source screening ratio, not an operating-property return measure.","title":"Resale softness aligns with rent cooling, but liquidity signals are mixed"}],"risks":["Zillow asking-rent indexing, ACS gross-rent surveying, HUD administrative standards, and Redfin resale observations use different populations, definitions, timing, and purposes, so comparisons should not be treated as interchangeable rental comps.","The matched ZCTA is a Census statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, meaning an individual address, listing, or property may not align perfectly with the geographic boundary used for survey estimates.","Historical rent changes, volatility, drawdown, and discovery ranks are backward-looking measures. They do not establish future rent movement, future resale pricing, tenant demand, or the financial outcome of owning a particular property.","Vacancy counts and renter burden are area aggregates. They cannot verify a particular unit's availability, concessions, utilities, lease requirements, physical condition, tenant income, or actual rent paid."],"qa":[{"a":"It annualizes the current ZIP Zillow asking-rent index and calculates the income level at which that amount equals 30% of gross income. It is arithmetic for comparison with area income data, not affordability advice, a lending standard, or an applicant approval rule.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates generated by scaling the Zillow ZORI level through the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD's bedroom-specific FMR or SAFMR standard is administrative rather than asking rent, so the resulting figures are not measured rents from listing-level bedroom data.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin's direct ZIP median sold price to create a cross-source screening ratio. Because it excludes expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy experience, unit quality, and actual lease revenue, it is not a cap rate or property yield.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-price ratio be interpreted?"},{"a":"The figures measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. A difference therefore does not by itself indicate a data error or rent mispricing.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent higher than Zillow ZORI here?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":867.570423},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":867.003823},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":866.100759},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":872.436114},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":880.708888},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":879.624775},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":888.900222},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":887.900547},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":902.267129},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":901.576334},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":902.363813},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":897.955964},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":906.481539},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":911.389238},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":920.678694},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":918.201723},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":912.956652},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":909.852682},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":924.968179},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":932.60104},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":933.779936},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":937.46102},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":941.384035},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":947.735784},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":950.366611},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":954.505527},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":954.37399},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":960.139753},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":965.155856},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":972.229241},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":961.416524},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":962.421652},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":961.421841},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":981.218912},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":987.93196},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":994.175219},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":992.448812},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":989.267243},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":993.860139},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1005.796259},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1019.170174},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1030.682755},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1040.662378},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1050.528477},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1058.4234},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1068.01249},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1070.5242},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1069.576074},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1067.647521},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1082.655358},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1104.916071},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1126.966822},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1146.948344},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1155.534247},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1172.236898},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1184.861287},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1201.05802},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1213.914767},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1227.316063},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1248.231448},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1272.557995},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1291.196403},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1296.391137},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1298.487961},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1295.147243},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1300.476292},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1294.290253},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1290.155166},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1294.179765},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1300.653126},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1312.449015},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1318.777665},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1330.646904},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1329.219433},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1318.188171},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1306.216046},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1306.753412},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1314.588691},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1316.486464},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1318.702263},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1309.462898},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1301.937076},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1295.023326},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1290.240671},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1285.767376},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1281.832873},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1287.202184},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1300.382928},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1306.381493},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1310.584878},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1295.426519},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1297.16691},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1284.32878},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1301.271719},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1297.605836},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1309.732807},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1302.129319},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1303.719453},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1304.71147},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1300.566885},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1296.984307},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1289.782917},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1301.220531},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1299.394487},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1311.711816},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1299.972158},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1302.300564},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1292.362548},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1295.721554}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":109,"firstPeriod":"2017-06-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":109,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1302.129319,"endRent":1295.721554,"change":-0.004920989725445191,"cagr":-0.004920989725445191},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1330.646904,"endRent":1295.721554,"change":-0.02624689532212665,"cagr":-0.008826645552058143},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1067.647521,"endRent":1295.721554,"change":0.2136229687363269,"cagr":0.039481483221078806}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03668443585842507,"annualizedVolatility":0.026027575726655417,"consecutiveReturnCount":108}}