ZIP 75206 presents a measured rent-versus-availability tension: the current Zillow ZORI is $2,042 per month, 14.9% above the matched ACS median gross rent, while the ZCTA vacancy rate is 13.3%. This juxtaposition does not establish whether any individual home is available or affordable. It instead puts a current asking-rent signal beside occupied-home survey evidence and stock utilization. The tension is sharpened because 39.8% of surveyed renter households reported spending at least 30% of income on rent. The question is therefore not simply whether the ZIP's headline rent is high, but how much weight a reader can place on that snapshot when it is set against distinct survey, stock, and resale measures.
History supports a stable-growth reading, but its pace has changed. The exact same-month one-year rent change was 1.81%, the three-year annualized change was 1.21%, and the five-year annualized change was 4.39%. Thus, the recent direction remains positive and confirms the three-year path, yet it breaks from the materially faster growth embedded in the five-year record. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.47% suggests that the index has generally moved with limited month-to-month dispersion, supporting moderate confidence in the current snapshot rather than certainty. Separately, the maximum drawdown reached 2.98%, showing that even this relatively steady history included a meaningful decline. Coverage was 100% across 138 observations. The transparent national discovery ranks were 1,736 for momentum, 634 for stability, and 1,194 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs; these backward-looking measurements are not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a census median and not a utility-inclusive lease ledger. The ACS value is a matched Census ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes; its median gross rent includes selected utilities and has a $39 margin of error. Accordingly, the stated gap between ZORI and ACS should not be treated as two interchangeable measures of the same rental inventory. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the geographic match is useful but not a claim that every postal delivery address or rental listing falls into the same statistical universe.
The bedroom ladder should be read as a set of modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces estimates of $1,671 for a studio, $1,747 for one bedroom, $2,042 for two bedrooms, $2,574 for three bedrooms, and $3,266 for four bedrooms. The modelled two-bedroom figure equals the ZIP index mechanically; it does not demonstrate an observed two-bedroom asking-rent median. The local HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is $2,420, placing the ZIP index at 84.4% of that benchmark. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so it supplies the scaling pattern but does not validate a particular advertised rent or unit quality.
The required-income screen is arithmetic only. Applying a 30% rent-to-income threshold to the current asking-rent index produces required annual income of $81,680, compared with ZCTA median household income of $91,023; the resulting asking-rent-to-income relationship is 26.9%. That comparison is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence that a median-income household will obtain a lease. ACS burden data add an occupied-renter perspective: 6,553 of 16,454 renter households were counted at or above the 30% burden threshold. The burden share identifies aggregate reported pressure among surveyed occupied renters, but cannot prove the expense profile, income, utilities, concessions, or affordability of a particular household or available unit.
Housing stock also argues against treating the index as a complete market description. The ZCTA counted 26,000 housing units, including 22,547 occupied units and 3,453 vacant units. Its 13.3% vacancy rate is an aggregate stock calculation, while 2,559 units were classified as vacant for rent. Renters occupied 73.0% of occupied housing, making renter households the dominant tenure group in this statistical area. The structure mix includes 6,849 single-family units and 9,709 units in large multifamily structures. These counts describe the surveyed stock and vacancy statuses, not a verified count of currently marketable rentals, actual concessions, lease terms, or a direct vacancy condition for any one building.
Wider comparisons put the ZIP premium in perspective without replacing ZIP evidence: the reported rent is $1,618 in the Dallas city context, $1,646 in the Dallas County context, and $1,673 in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metro context. Each is a wider-geography context value, not a ZIP rental comp or a substitute for the direct ZORI reading. The city-context renter burden rate is 51.7% and the county-context rate is 52.1%, both above the ZIP ZCTA figure cited earlier. That difference may help frame the aggregate screen, but it does not reconcile the distinct asking-rent, survey, and geographic universes or establish why they differ.
Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation describes the for-sale market, not rental transactions. It reports a median sold price of $784,123, down 1.98% year over year, with 151 homes sold and a median 28 days on market. Inventory was 244 homes and months of supply stood at 4.9. Sale-to-list signals were an average 98.07% sale-to-list ratio and a 17.7% share sold above list. Those resale measures create a tension with the still-positive rent history: declining sold prices and below-list average execution challenge any simple reading of the rent snapshot as uniformly strengthening, while sales activity and marketing time show direct ZIP resale liquidity. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is a 3.125% cross-source screening ratio only, without operating-cost, financing, or property-specific economics. A property-level review would still need current advertised rent, bedroom count, utilities, concessions, occupancy, condition, listing history, and confirmation that the unit matches the relevant ZIP and time window.
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow ZORI of $2,042 is 14.9% above the matched ACS median gross rent of $1,777. This is a meaningful comparison, but it crosses distinct source universes: ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents, while ACS surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference should not be interpreted as a direct lease premium for a specific unit.","title":"Asking rent exceeds the occupied-home survey median"},{"body":"Exact same-month rent growth was 1.81% over one year and 1.21% annualized over three years, compared with 4.39% annualized over five years. The positive recent path supports a stable-growth classification, but it is substantially slower than the longer-period pace. Low measured variability supports moderate confidence in the snapshot, while the historical drawdown remains an important caution.","title":"Growth remains positive but is slower than the longer record"},{"body":"The local-HUD-scaled model produces estimates from $1,671 for a studio to $3,266 for four bedrooms. These are modelled ZIP estimates, not measured bedroom rents. The $2,042 modelled two-bedroom value is 84.4% of the $2,420 HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR. HUD is an administrative bedroom standard and should not be used as an asking-rent comp.","title":"Modelled bedroom estimates are below the HUD two-bedroom standard"},{"body":"Redfin's direct ZIP resale data show a $784,123 median sold price, down 1.98% year over year, alongside 4.9 months of supply and a 98.07% average sale-to-list ratio. Those for-sale signals do not describe rental transactions, but they challenge a simplistic interpretation of positive rent history. The 3.125% rent-price figure remains only a cross-source screening ratio.","title":"Resale evidence complicates the rent signal"}],"risks":["Zillow asking-rent index values, ACS occupied-home survey medians, and HUD administrative standards answer different questions. Comparing them without preserving their source scopes can create a false impression of precise unit-level rent alignment.","The ZCTA vacancy rate and vacant-for-rent count describe aggregate statistical-area stock statuses. Neither metric confirms that a specific property is currently available, competitively priced, habitable, or offered without concessions.","The required-income and rent-burden figures are aggregate arithmetic and survey screens. They do not account for household composition, credit review, deposits, utilities, lease concessions, or the qualification policy of a particular landlord.","Redfin resale observations are direct ZIP for-sale evidence, but they are not rental comparables or property economics. Sale price, inventory, marketing time, and sale-to-list measures should not be translated into a specific rental outcome."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different timing, sampled homes, tenancy status, and rent definitions mean the two figures are complementary context rather than interchangeable estimates.","q":"Why does Zillow ZORI differ from the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP-level Zillow ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom-specific asking-rent medians, and they do not identify the rent, condition, utilities, location, or availability of a particular apartment or house.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents for apartments in this ZIP?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply divides the annualized current asking-rent index by 30% to show an arithmetic income reference. It is not financial advice, a household budget, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence that any household with that income would be approved under a landlord's actual lease standards.","q":"Does the 30% required-income screen determine whether someone can rent here?"},{"a":"It adds a separate direct ZIP view of the for-sale market: sold price, price movement, homes sold, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. Those signals can test whether resale conditions align with or challenge rental indicators, but they do not describe rental transactions, rents, operating costs, or unit-level economics.","q":"What does the Redfin resale block add to the rental analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1233.764689},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1240.737719},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1262.606281},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1258.002271},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1271.183494},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1289.631442},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1307.54246},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1319.204432},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1315.030321},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1315.201037},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1325.559454},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1349.34321},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1354.093236},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1355.659338},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1332.912237},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1350.021948},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1346.536414},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1369.879824},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1371.974667},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1386.30903},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1390.226044},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1409.704702},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1416.389727},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1426.468868},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1423.276126},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1432.645178},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1445.452146},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1455.638846},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1466.653562},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1455.344206},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1453.842993},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1454.277311},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1471.657856},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1473.192213},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1479.513238},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1481.023686},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1494.038553},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1501.876522},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1514.11464},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1519.246698},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1522.98586},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1530.052307},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1530.196583},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1531.509049},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1529.897868},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1536.038172},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1544.767209},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1542.648372},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1552.066525},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1546.231989},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1546.36673},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1545.363269},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1548.510143},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1553.803456},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1563.799089},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1569.23135},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1570.899052},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1570.721805},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1568.402874},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1575.434561},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1571.334089},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1578.702602},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1576.95288},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1565.93973},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1551.774864},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1538.783854},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1537.078621},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1531.620903},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1542.623929},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1553.137028},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1568.740961},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1564.763758},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1566.798475},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1565.870381},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1584.115331},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1603.277809},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1622.991269},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1647.334761},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1680.853276},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1711.689729},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1751.86255},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1771.342986},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1792.636415},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1808.146895},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1838.036924},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1861.776951},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1883.150324},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1903.358151},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1929.384256},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1946.431666},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1949.751126},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1956.911084},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1957.353153},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1966.775441},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1969.158706},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1972.053779},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1961.876152},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1966.5555},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1977.289189},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1990.95997},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1987.008362},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1970.021596},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1964.598205},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1967.811407},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1970.417606},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1961.561822},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1959.200776},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1971.392344},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1983.369306},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1979.904217},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1951.099855},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1939.564476},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1943.573729},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1983.010958},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2003.282159},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2013.918033},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1993.671437},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1996.37867},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1979.568942},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1982.261508},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1984.599263},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1997.618881},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2014.344988},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2011.294394},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2017.060502},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2006.090825},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1999.729936},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1995.623849},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2015.53701},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2022.347003},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2041.899039},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2039.150902},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2038.53784},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2033.855837},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2037.172615},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2046.7715},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2045.414648},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2042.319561}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2006.090825,"endRent":2042.319561,"change":0.018059369769561684,"cagr":0.018059369769561684},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1970.021596,"endRent":2042.319561,"change":0.03669907230803782,"cagr":0.012086355586411468},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1647.334761,"endRent":2042.319561,"change":0.23977203016114834,"cagr":0.04392276121622474}},"maxDrawdown":-0.029823032495388313,"annualizedVolatility":0.024686407787007817,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}