In the stated June 2026 Zillow period, the ZIP-level ZORI is $1,051 per month. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not an advertised price for a specified available unit. The central evidence tension is immediate: this asking index is cooling, whereas Redfin's direct ZIP resale median sold price is $424,904, 14.84% above its year-earlier level. Annualizing ZORI and dividing it by that sale median produces a 2.97% cross-source screening ratio. That arithmetic only juxtaposes an asking-rent index with a resale median; it cannot establish property-level economics. The two sources need separate readings rather than a combined market conclusion.
ZORI history has 100% coverage through its stated endpoint. Exact same-month annualized change is -3.56% over one year and -2.32% over three years, versus +1.53% over five years. The newest decline therefore confirms the intermediate path but breaks from the longer positive path. Annualized monthly-return variability measures 2.67%, which means one current index snapshot merits limited precision even with complete coverage. Separately, the worst prior peak-to-trough decline reached 8.18%, evidence that declines have occurred within the observed record. Transparent national discovery ranks are 2,877 for momentum, 1,007 for stability, and 2,506 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation ending June 30, 2026, records 113 homes sold, a 46-day median marketing time, and 182 homes of inventory, down from a year earlier. It also reports 4.9 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 96.58%, while 13.65% of sales closed above list. Those signals, alongside the median price increase cited above, describe for-sale liquidity rather than rental transactions. Rising resale price and lower inventory challenge the ZORI cooling pattern, yet the below-list average closing result and the stated supply leave the resale evidence mixed rather than decisive. Neither the sales count nor the marketing-time measure is a rental comparable, and neither changes the interpretation of the asking-rent index.
The five-digit label 75243 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the matched ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent is $1,285 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. That is a different evidence universe from ZORI; the survey median exceeds the current asking index. The packet's FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,820. HUD FMR/SAFMR standards are administrative and bedroom-specific, not asking rent, so neither the ACS result nor the HUD standard should be substituted for a current unit listing.
Bedroom figures provide a scaling lens, not direct rent measurements. The model scales ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder to produce monthly ZIP estimates of $860 for a studio, $895 for a one-bedroom, $1,051 for a two-bedroom, $1,322 for a three-bedroom, and $1,680 for a four-bedroom. Each is a modelled estimate rather than a measured bedroom rent. The two-bedroom number aligns with the index by construction, while the other figures reflect only the HUD ratio sequence. Without unit-level bedroom asking data, they cannot describe a specific floor plan, lease offer, or available unit.
At the structural 30% rent-to-income screen, the current index corresponds arithmetically to $42,040 in annual income. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $53,618, placing this asking-index calculation at 23.52% of that median. It is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. ACS estimates that 11,777 of 20,200 renter households, or 58.30%, spend at least that share of income on gross rent. This burden statistic is a five-year survey result for occupied renters, not today's asking market; it cannot prove a particular household's burden or a particular unit's availability. The distinction is consequential because gross rent includes selected utilities whereas ZORI does not supply a unit-level utility bill.
ACS describes a renter-majority ZCTA housing base in which large multifamily structures outnumber single-family structures and renter share is 73.41%. Its 12.02% vacancy rate includes 2,948 units vacant for rent, a stock measure that does not demonstrate that any named unit is immediately obtainable or suitable. For wider context only, the Dallas city rent context is $1,618.11, the Dallas County rent context is $1,646, and the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro rent context is $1,673. Those city, county, and metro values are broader geographies, not ZIP substitutes, and they do not alter the direct index or resale observations.
Aggregate measures leave important unit-level gaps. ZORI has no unit identifier, ACS cannot time a current offer, the HUD ladder is a scaling input, and Redfin summarizes resales rather than rental transactions. Concrete property-level checks are the dated advertised rent, bedroom count, utility inclusions, lease term, concessions, fees, availability status, and the property's actual list and sale dates, condition, and property type. Those checks belong in their source universe instead of being overwritten by a ZIP average or by a modelled bedroom estimate. Which dated lease and resale facts, if any, align with the distinct benchmarks reported here?
","findings":[{"body":"At $1,051, the latest ZORI is 3.56% below its same-month level a year earlier. The three-year annualized change is also negative at 2.32%, while the five-year annualized change remains positive at 1.53%. Redfin's $424,904 median sold price, up 14.84%, moves differently. The evidence therefore shows a cross-universe tension, not a unified price signal.","title":"Asking-rent cooling conflicts with resale price strength"},{"body":"The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey's $1,285 median gross rent reflects occupied renter homes and selected utilities. The current ZORI is an asking-rent index instead. HUD's FY2026 $1,820 two-bedroom standard is administrative and bedroom-specific. These values are useful benchmarks only when their different populations, timing, and construction are kept separate; none is a unit-specific rent quote.","title":"Rent benchmarks describe distinct populations"},{"body":"Scaling the local HUD ladder makes the bedroom figures modelled rather than observed: $860 for a studio, $895 for a one-bedroom, $1,051 for a two-bedroom, $1,322 for a three-bedroom, and $1,680 for a four-bedroom. Separately, the arithmetic 30% screen requires $42,040 annual income. Neither calculation establishes eligibility, availability, or a unit-specific rent.","title":"Bedroom and income figures are arithmetic constructions"},{"body":"In the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, 113 homes sold with a 46-day median marketing time. Inventory totaled 182 homes and supply was 4.9 months. Average sale-to-list was 96.58%, while 13.65% sold above list. These direct resale liquidity measures qualify the price increase but remain separate from rental transactions and ZORI.","title":"Resale liquidity is measurable but separate from rental activity"}],"risks":["ZORI blends rental types and does not identify a unit's bedroom count, utility charges, concessions, condition, lease term, or availability date. Current listing quotations can differ from the index without contradicting the ZIP measure.","ACS is a multi-year survey of occupied renter homes in a statistical ZCTA, not an update of current listings in a USPS delivery ZIP. Survey margins of error and utility treatment limit point-in-time comparison.","HUD bedroom standards are administrative inputs, so their ratio-scaled model can miss actual bedroom premiums, unit mix, lease inclusions, and concessions. The ladder cannot validate an advertised unit rent.","Redfin observes direct ZIP resales, not rental transactions. Its price, inventory, and selling-pace signals can move differently from ZORI, while the screening ratio omits property condition, financing, expenses, and transaction-level matching."],"qa":[{"a":"Not necessarily because the two measures observe different universes. ZORI is a typical ZIP asking-rent index blended across rental types at its stated date. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent figure includes selected utilities. The matched ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, so timing, population, geography, and rent definitions differ.","q":"Why does the ACS gross-rent figure differ from the ZORI reading?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled estimates created by applying local HUD bedroom-standard ratios to the ZIP ZORI. They preserve the ladder's relative pattern, and the two-bedroom estimate equals ZORI by construction. The packet supplies no observed unit-level bedroom rents, unit mix, utility treatment, concessions, or current leasing terms with which to validate them.","q":"Are the bedroom figures evidence of measured rents?"},{"a":"The history has 100% coverage, but this only establishes completeness of the index record. Same-month change is -3.56% at one year and -2.32% annualized across three years, against +1.53% annualized across five years. Variability and drawdown show movement around the endpoint; those measures describe the past and do not forecast rent.","q":"Does the history support confidence in a single current ZORI value?"},{"a":"Redfin's rolling-three-month statistics cover for-sale transactions and resale liquidity, including price, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. The 2.97% figure annualizes ZORI and divides it by the ZIP median sold price. It is a cross-source screening ratio only and cannot establish the economics of any specific home.","q":"How should the resale data and cross-source screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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