The defining measured tension in ZIP 76107 is that the for-sale market's recent price movement is much stronger than the rent index's recent movement. That gap does not establish a property outcome: rent evidence and resale evidence describe different transactions, while the affordability screen is still another lens. The useful reading is therefore conditional. A current asking-rent snapshot shows stable upward motion, but the faster resale signal challenges any assumption that the two markets are moving in step. This report keeps those observations separate and treats them as recorded conditions, not forecasts, investment recommendations, or evidence of a particular unit's economics.
At June 2026, Zillow's ZIP-level ZORI was $1,766 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a survey median or a bedroom-specific lease record. The Fort Worth city context was $1,635, the Tarrant County context was $1,639, and the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metro context was $1,673; each is wider-geography context rather than a ZIP substitute. On this asking-rent measure, 76107 stands above all three benchmarks, though the differences do not identify the condition, lease terms, utilities, or availability of any individual rental.
The rent history supports a positive but uneven backward-looking path. The exact same-month one-year annualized change was 2.74%, compared with 0.90% over three-year history and 3.82% over five-year history. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer path's positive sign and exceeds the three-year pace, yet it does not match the stronger five-year pace. History coverage was 100% across 138 observations. Monthly-return variability measured 2.85% annualized, which supports somewhat more confidence in one index snapshot than a highly erratic series would, while still not turning it into a unit-level quote. Separately, the maximum drawdown reached 6.07%, showing that the series experienced a meaningful historical retreat despite net growth. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,524 for momentum, 1,340 for stability, and 1,502 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks place higher. These are discovery measurements, not forecasts.
Bedroom detail requires a model rather than a claim of observed bedroom rents. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,447 for a studio, $1,507 for one bedroom, $1,766 for two bedrooms, $2,223 for three bedrooms, and $2,827 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,931; HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. By contrast, ACS median gross rent was $1,609 with a $48 margin of error. That five-year survey describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, making the current asking index 9.8% higher without making either source a replacement for the other.
The affordability arithmetic is less strained than the burden data might initially imply, but the measures answer different questions. At a 30% screen, the current asking rent requires $70,640 in annual household income, versus a ZCTA median household income of $79,990; annualized asking rent equals 26.5% of that median income. This 30% required-income screen is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. ACS reports 4,279 of 8,916 renter households, or 48.0%, as paying at least 30% of income toward rent. That population result cannot prove affordability or burden for a particular unit. The matched area contains 18,171 housing units, has a 12.3% all-unit vacancy rate, and includes 1,083 units vacant for rent. Renters account for 55.9% of occupied homes, while the structure mix includes 9,347 single-family units and 5,688 units in larger multifamily buildings.
Wider context sharpens the distinction between local arithmetic and broader conditions. The ZIP's 26.5% asking-rent-to-median-income calculation is above the 22.2% metro context ratio, while Fort Worth city and Tarrant County context burden shares are higher than the ZIP's ACS burden share. Those comparisons should not be collapsed into one affordability verdict because the city and county survey measures concern occupied renter households, whereas ZORI reflects asking rents. Likewise, the metro context apartment vacancy rate was 9.0%, but it is not directly interchangeable with the ZCTA's all-housing-unit vacancy rate. The ZIP's higher renter share and above-context asking index describe composition and pricing signals, not causes of housing outcomes.
Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation provides the counterweight to the rent reading. Median sold price was $434,902, up 8.7% year over year, with 118 homes sold and median days on market of 35. Inventory stood at 188 homes and months of supply at 4.8. The average sale-to-list result was 98.45%, while 14.8% of sales closed above list price. These are for-sale liquidity, pricing, and negotiation signals, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 4.87% screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The stronger resale price increase challenges a simple reading of stable rent growth as a fully aligned market signal, even though both series are positive.
Several limits remain material. The five-digit label 76107 is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS 2024 five-year estimates, HUD standards, Zillow asking-rent observations, and Redfin resale records each use distinct populations and timing. A property-level review would still need the actual asking rents for comparable bedrooms, included utilities, lease length, unit condition, availability, and current listing or sale records. The central unresolved question is whether a specific unit's verified terms resemble the broad rental index more closely than the local resale evidence.
","findings":[{"body":"The one-year Zillow rent change of 2.74% is faster than the three-year annualized pace of 0.90%, but slower than the five-year annualized pace of 3.82%. Full historical coverage and relatively contained variability improve confidence in the index direction, although the prior 6.07% drawdown shows that historical rents did not rise without interruption.","title":"Rent growth is positive, but not uniform across horizons"},{"body":"Zillow's $1,766 ZORI is 9.8% above the ACS median gross rent of $1,609. This is not necessarily a discrepancy requiring resolution: ZORI reflects current typical observed asking rents across rental types, while ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities.","title":"Asking rent exceeds survey gross rent for definitional reasons"},{"body":"The 30% arithmetic screen places required annual income at $70,640, below the ZCTA median household income of $79,990. At the same time, ACS reports that 48.0% of renter households pay at least 30% of income toward rent. Area-level household burden does not determine the affordability of a specific available unit.","title":"Burden data and income arithmetic create a two-sided affordability signal"},{"body":"Redfin's direct ZIP resale data show an 8.7% year-over-year median sold-price increase, materially above the one-year Zillow rent change. With 118 sales, 35 median days on market, and 4.8 months of supply, the resale evidence is a meaningful but separate for-sale signal. The 4.87% rent-price screening ratio is not a property yield measure.","title":"Resale appreciation outpaced the current rent measure"}],"risks":["The ZIP asking-rent index, ACS occupied-household survey, HUD administrative standards, and Redfin resale observations cover different universes, so combining them as though they were interchangeable can create false precision.","A single ZORI snapshot can obscure unit-level variation in bedroom count, included utilities, lease duration, availability, condition, concessions, and property type, despite the history showing relatively contained aggregate variability.","The ACS renter-burden share describes surveyed renter households over a five-year period and cannot demonstrate that a particular available apartment is affordable or that a particular tenant would be rent burdened.","Redfin's resale price and sale-to-list information concern for-sale transactions only; interpreting the screening ratio as a cap rate, expected return, net return, or property yield would exceed the evidence."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different rental universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Differences can therefore reflect timing, unit mix, occupied-versus-marketed homes, and utility treatment without showing an error in either source.","q":"Why does the Zillow asking-rent figure differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"The one-year annualized increase was positive and exceeded the three-year pace, which confirms recent upward direction. It remained below the five-year annualized pace, so the latest period does not represent the strongest historical growth rate. Moderate historical variability supports more confidence in the index snapshot than a highly volatile series would, but the earlier drawdown remains an important caution.","q":"What does the rent-history pattern say about the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"Redfin should be read as direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale evidence, including sold prices, transaction count, marketing time, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It is not a source of rental comps or unit operating economics. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price produces only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate or expected investment outcome.","q":"How should the Redfin resale data be used with the rent data?"},{"a":"A listing would need verification of its actual asking rent, bedroom count, square footage where relevant, utility responsibilities, lease term, concessions, condition, availability date, and comparable current offerings. For a resale comparison, the relevant property would also require current listing, sale, and market-status verification. The ZCTA match and ZIP rental index are geographic summaries, not property records.","q":"What property-level checks remain necessary before comparing a listing with this report?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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