Resale pricing supplies the clearest counterpoint for this ZIP. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation ending June 30, 2026, median sold price was $264,940, up 6.0% year over year. This is resale evidence, not rental transactions. The period recorded 104 homes sold, a 45-day median marketing time, and 3.0 months of supply; average sale-to-list was 98.8%, while 18.8% of sales closed above list. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that median sold price is a 5.5% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or a statement of property economics. The price change is faster than the rent change reported below, creating a real screen-level tension rather than a unified market signal.
At June 2026, Zillow ZORI for 76112 was $1,207, up 3.5% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease quote for a particular home. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. As wider context, the Fort Worth city Zillow rent was $1,635, the Tarrant County Zillow rent was $1,639, and the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metro Zillow rent was $1,673. In contrast, the ACS 2024 five-year matched-ZCTA median gross rent was $1,301, a survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities.
Rent history tempers reliance on the current asking-rent snapshot. Exact same-month ZORI changes annualized to 3.5% over one year, 0.9% over three years, and 4.0% over five years. The newest result is stronger than the subdued middle-period pace but slightly below the longer five-year result, so recent direction appears to resume rather than clearly break from the broader path. Coverage was 99.1% through the stated endpoint. Monthly changes translate into 3.6% annualized variability, which reduces confidence that one current index reading fully characterizes the rent path. A 5.4% maximum drawdown also documents a meaningful prior retreat. Transparent national discovery ranks, where lower is higher, were 1,361 for momentum, 2,345 for stability, and 2,036 for the balanced measure. These are backward-looking discovery measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The bedroom ladder should be read as a model, not as a set of observed ZIP bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $989 for a studio, $1,030 for one bedroom, $1,207 for two bedrooms, $1,520 for three bedrooms, and $1,932 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The local HUD two-bedroom standard is $1,931, making the modelled two-bedroom estimate 62.5% of that benchmark. That relationship is useful for keeping bedroom estimates internally proportionate, but it does not establish what any available unit is asking, what utilities are included, or whether an individual property conforms to HUD assumptions.
The affordability screen points to a separate tension: the aggregate income comparison is less strained than the renter burden result. Applying the 30% screen to the $1,207 monthly ZORI requires $48,280 in annual income. The matched-ZCTA median household income was $57,724, and annualized ZORI equals 25.1% of that median income. This is arithmetic only, not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence of an individual household’s ability to pay. ACS nevertheless estimated that 5,597 of 8,770 renter households, or 63.8%, paid at least 30% of income toward gross rent. That burden measure reflects occupied renter households and survey uncertainty; it cannot prove affordability or rent pressure at a particular property.
Housing-stock evidence provides additional context without identifying unit-level availability. The matched ZCTA contained 19,243 housing units and had an 11.1% overall vacancy rate, including 811 units classified vacant for rent. Renters represented 51.3% of occupied households, a larger renter presence than the Fort Worth city and Tarrant County context shares. The stock included 10,702 single-family units alongside multifamily housing. These ACS categories describe a broad statistical area and its survey-era housing composition, not a contemporaneous listing count. In particular, vacancy is not proof that a specific unit is leasable, competitively priced, habitable, or suitable for a given household.
The resale and rent records therefore send a mixed but decision-relevant message. The direct ZIP resale observation showed rising sold prices while active listings and inventory both declined year over year, which supports a firmer for-sale screen than rent history alone might imply. Yet the average sale-to-list result remained below list price and only a minority of sales closed above list, challenging a simple interpretation of broad resale bidding pressure. Meanwhile, current ZORI remains below each named city, county, and metro rent context, while the ACS renter-burden share is elevated. Those measures belong to different universes, so they can frame tension but cannot establish causation between resale conditions, rent changes, household finances, or a particular home’s performance.
Important limits remain. ZORI is an index rather than unit-specific asking-rent evidence; ACS is a five-year survey of occupied homes; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin reports ZIP resale activity rather than rental comps. A property-level review would need the address’s applicable geography, current advertised rent by bedroom count, utility treatment, lease concessions, condition, square footage, days marketed, and directly comparable recent sold and listed properties. It should also distinguish occupied status from vacant-for-rent classification and verify whether an individual unit’s asking rent differs from the blended index. None of these datasets supplies a forecast, a guarantee of availability, or property-specific operating economics. The central unresolved question is whether unit-level evidence supports the broad screen’s mixed rent, burden, and resale signals.
","findings":[{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale record showed a 6.0% year-over-year increase in median sold price, compared with 3.5% same-month ZORI growth. That comparison highlights a divergence between for-sale and asking-rent evidence. It does not indicate rental transaction performance, property economics, or a forecast. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio.","title":"Resale appreciation exceeded current asking-rent growth"},{"body":"The one-year ZORI change of 3.5% exceeded the three-year annualized change of 0.9%, while remaining slightly below the five-year annualized change of 4.0%. That pattern supports a backward-looking interpretation of renewed growth after a slower middle period. Volatility and drawdown data still caution against treating the current rent index as a precise, stable unit-level price.","title":"Recent rent growth improved from the middle-period pace"},{"body":"Annualized current ZORI consumed 25.1% of matched-ZCTA median household income under a simple arithmetic comparison, below the 30% screen. However, ACS estimated that 63.8% of renter households paid at least 30% of income toward gross rent. The measures are not contradictory proof about individual households because they use different distributions, definitions, and survey-based data.","title":"Aggregate income and renter-burden measures diverge"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom asking rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard and the ACS gross-rent measure includes selected utilities, so neither source should be substituted for a current advertised rent, a lease quote, or a property-specific utility-inclusive monthly cost.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled from HUD proportions"}],"risks":["The current ZORI value is a blended ZIP asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match a particular unit’s bedroom count, condition, utility treatment, concessions, or advertised rent.","ACS renter burden, gross rent, income, vacancy, and stock measures come from a matched ZCTA five-year survey and may not represent current conditions or a particular USPS delivery ZIP address.","The modelled bedroom ladder inherits HUD administrative proportions rather than observed bedroom-specific lease data, creating risk if actual local unit mix, utilities, or rent segmentation differs from the model.","Redfin resale measures describe direct ZIP for-sale transactions and listings, not rental transactions; sale-price movement, marketing time, and supply should not be converted into rent forecasts or unit economics."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ZIP identifier also maps to a Census ZCTA, which is a statistical area rather than the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP. Different timing, unit populations, and rent definitions can therefore produce different values.","q":"Why does the Zillow asking-rent index differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled monthly estimates created by taking the ZIP ZORI level and scaling it with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not a measurement of asking rent. The figures help compare proportional bedroom levels, but they do not verify a current listing, lease term, included utilities, or a particular property’s rent.","q":"Are the bedroom rent estimates observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"The figure is an arithmetic screen: monthly ZORI is annualized and divided by 30% to produce an income amount. It is not financial advice, an applicant qualification standard, or a statement that any household can or cannot afford a specific unit. The ACS burden statistic is separate survey evidence about occupied renter households and should not be used as proof of any individual tenant’s circumstances.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"It is calculated by dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s median sold price in the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation. Because it combines an asking-rent index with a resale median from a different source universe, it is only a cross-source screening ratio. It excludes operating costs, financing, taxes, insurance, vacancies, maintenance, property condition, and unit-specific rents, so it is not a cap rate or property yield.","q":"How should the rent-to-sale-price screening ratio be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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