In June 2026, the five-digit label 76133 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s direct ZIP ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, was $1,802 per month, down 0.04% from a year earlier. That level produces a $72,080 annual income figure under a 30% rent screen, against the ACS median household income of $75,523; the arithmetic asking-rent-to-income screen is 28.6%. This is a current price comparison rather than advice, an applicant qualification rule, or a claim about any household’s lease.
The direct ZIP for-sale observation creates a useful counterpoint to that nearly unchanged asking-rent reading. Redfin’s rolling-three-month resale data show a $289,385 median sold price, down 0.66% year over year, with 169 homes sold and a median 39 days on market. Supply was 2.2 months, while the average sale closed at 98.33% of list price; 18.92% of sales were above list and 33.6% of listings went off market within two weeks. Those are ZIP resale signals, not rental transactions. Annualized ZORI divided by the median sold price is 7.47%, solely a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
The recent rent pause breaks from the longer backward-looking ZORI path rather than confirming it. Exact same-month annualized change was negative 0.04% over one year, compared with gains of 2.36% over three years and 4.74% over five years. Monthly rent changes annualize to 2.45% variability, which suggests limited historical movement around the trend and lends more confidence to the index as a broad snapshot than would a highly erratic series. The largest observed peak-to-trough decline was 1.50%, also modest. Coverage was 100% across 138 observations. Transparent national discovery ranks were 1,964 for momentum, 585 for stability, and 1,390 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower is higher; these are historical discovery tools, not forecasts.
The bedroom ladder is a model, not a set of measured bedroom rents. It scales the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder and estimates $1,476 for a studio, $1,538 for one bedroom, $1,802 for two bedrooms, $2,269 for three bedrooms, and $2,885 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its local two-bedroom standard is $1,931. The ZIP ZORI is therefore 93.3% of that HUD two-bedroom standard, an arithmetic comparison across distinct source systems. Listing-level rents can differ from these modelled estimates because ZORI is blended across rental types and the HUD ladder serves a different administrative purpose.
The matched ACS five-year survey adds a resident-household view that should not be substituted for current asking rent. Median gross rent was $1,586 with a $68 margin of error, and ACS gross rent covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The current Zillow asking-rent index is 13.6% above that survey median, a difference consistent with their unlike populations and measurement methods rather than proof of a market change. Among 7,150 renter-occupied homes, ACS counted 4,009 renter households spending at least 30% of income on rent, or 56.1%. That burden measure describes surveyed households in aggregate; it does not establish affordability, payment stress, or terms for a particular available home.
Housing counts provide scale but not unit availability. The ZCTA contained 20,180 housing units, including 18,841 occupied units and 1,339 vacant units, for a 6.6% vacancy rate. Renters represented 37.9% of occupied homes, while single-family units outnumbered large multifamily structures in the available stock counts. This mix matters when interpreting a blended asking-rent index, because it is not a dedicated apartment-only measure. Nor does the area-wide vacancy rate demonstrate that a similarly priced, suitable, or currently rentable unit exists. Availability, condition, lease structure, and actual advertised rent remain property-level questions.
Wider-context comparisons point in different directions and must retain their stated scopes. Fort Worth city context has a higher rent index than ZIP 76133, Tarrant County context also has a higher rent index, and Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro context is higher still; none is a ZIP substitute. Conversely, the ZIP’s ACS median gross rent exceeds the city-context and county-context survey medians, underscoring the distinction between current asking-rent indexes and occupied-home survey rents. The ZIP also has lower renter-share and vacancy measures than the city and county context figures. Metro apartment vacancy, apartment marketing time, job change, and rent-to-income data remain metro-level context only, not evidence about this ZIP’s listings or resident households.
The central tension is therefore a long historical run-up that has recently cooled, alongside a resale market with slightly lower prices but continuing transaction activity and limited months of supply. Neither side resolves the other: resale values are not rental economics, and ZORI is not a property-specific lease quote. Before using these screens for a specific address, verify the live advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities and fees, concessions, lease term, listing date, and condition against comparable current listings. For a purchase-side comparison, inspect property-specific sold comparables, list-price history, condition, and transaction timing. The question is not whether area averages guarantee an outcome, but whether the actual property matches the source universe being used.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI was essentially unchanged from a year earlier after stronger three-year and five-year annualized gains. The historical pattern supports a cooling description, not a continuation assumption. Modest monthly-return variability and a limited historical drawdown make the index a relatively stable broad measure, while still leaving any individual listing subject to property-specific differences.","title":"Current asking rent is flat, not accelerating"},{"body":"Applying the 30% arithmetic screen to current ZIP ZORI produces an annual income figure slightly below the ACS median household income. That comparison is not an eligibility rule or recommendation. ACS also reports that a majority of surveyed renter households were rent burdened, showing that median-income arithmetic and resident household cost burdens answer different questions.","title":"The affordability screen is close to the area income median"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom ladder is modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom relationship. It should be used only as an internally consistent estimate set, never as observed rents by bedroom. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard, while ZORI is a blended observed asking-rent index across rental types.","title":"Bedroom figures are HUD-scaled estimates"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation shows a small annual median-price decline, below-list average sale outcomes, and meaningful sales volume within a limited supply setting. That combination challenges a simple extension of the longer rent-growth history. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price figure is useful only as a cross-source screen and does not measure operating income or investment performance.","title":"Resale evidence tempers the longer rent history"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the rent, amenities, condition, lease term, utilities, or concessions attached to a specific available property.","ACS figures are five-year survey estimates for the matched ZCTA and occupied households. Margins of error, survey timing, and the distinction between a ZCTA and USPS delivery ZIP constrain precision.","Redfin figures describe direct rolling resale activity rather than rental transactions. Median sold prices, sale-to-list outcomes, and supply measures cannot establish rental demand, rental operating costs, or a property’s lease economics.","The modelled bedroom ladder and rent-to-price screen are mechanical comparisons. They omit property-level characteristics and should not be treated as measured bedroom rents, income qualification outcomes, or expected financial results."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different populations and concepts. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A gap between them does not by itself identify market appreciation, concession changes, or a household’s actual lease payment.","q":"Why does Zillow ZORI differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for a consistent comparison across bedroom sizes, but they are not measured listings, lease transactions, or a replacement for checking current like-for-like advertised properties.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"It does not directly describe rental transactions or rental supply. The Redfin block is a direct ZIP rolling-three-month for-sale observation covering sold prices, sales activity, marketing time, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list signals. It can provide a cross-market tension against rent history, but it cannot establish rental performance or rental availability.","q":"What does the resale information say about the rental market?"},{"a":"Use them as aggregate ZCTA context only. Vacancy is an area-wide housing-stock measure and cannot prove that a suitable unit is available at a particular price. Rent burden is an ACS survey measure of occupied renter households and cannot determine whether an individual household can qualify for, afford, or sustain a specific lease.","q":"How should the vacancy and burden statistics be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":974.344091},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":974.002201},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":979.563643},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":988.93083},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1005.712671},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1014.405676},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1012.823473},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1004.231819},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1006.929928},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1011.630394},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1022.777662},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1025.179454},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1029.252255},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1035.079354},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1045.493314},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1044.036983},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1037.511851},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1038.156724},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1046.070549},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1054.293728},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1063.26375},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1071.844027},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1075.565565},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1071.553707},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1077.381678},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1084.225279},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1093.360391},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1102.421147},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1113.287908},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1120.717385},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1123.216105},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1130.408291},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1136.14401},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1141.739669},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1147.025617},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1162.701181},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1172.81739},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1177.258617},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1175.519311},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1176.458481},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1181.811765},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1179.03137},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1184.029381},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1189.580704},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1199.315755},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1198.906576},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1204.008277},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1215.366155},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1213.986869},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1212.853506},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1219.8525},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1227.258044},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1231.067711},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1241.636691},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1247.257843},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1250.169387},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1249.908581},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1257.709663},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1262.311335},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1258.773342},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1265.881415},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1275.430672},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1279.015684},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1279.265126},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1288.906042},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1287.276204},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1289.22125},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1292.687356},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1316.598489},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1348.896918},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1357.055641},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1361.497136},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1356.949484},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1371.678792},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1391.021201},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1408.210211},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1411.759523},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1429.549635},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1457.0208},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1481.840465},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1503.299451},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1489.672351},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1517.27724},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1539.818967},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1570.878543},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1581.19825},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1586.725257},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1611.715881},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1629.224441},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1646.160311},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1633.961985},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1631.540048},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1626.314947},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1628.503954},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1637.688377},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1643.776161},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1666.255542},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1657.374356},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1671.691586},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1648.643225},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1674.281818},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1680.041784},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1710.971899},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1717.113655},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1713.944554},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1754.222805},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1759.009972},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1777.013774},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1753.993072},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1757.651978},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1761.772774},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1773.58113},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1772.853503},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1773.42053},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1762.392104},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1777.853306},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1776.991571},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1789.762402},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1800.673657},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1796.265889},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1802.45729},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1783.497514},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1799.281216},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1799.397899},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1803.116557},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1802.523729},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1806.003886},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1799.31841},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1810.156223},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1788.615242},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1782.954583},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1782.928227},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1790.136363},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1810.151659},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1798.894488},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1802.382221},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1798.907816},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1801.873611}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1802.523729,"endRent":1801.873611,"change":-0.00036067098010450493,"cagr":-0.00036067098010450493},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1680.041784,"endRent":1801.873611,"change":0.0725171410379637,"cagr":0.02361053566248894},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1429.549635,"endRent":1801.873611,"change":0.2604484425614224,"cagr":0.04738178589795261}},"maxDrawdown":-0.01504179343972556,"annualizedVolatility":0.024451023415285683,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}