The central measured tension in 76137 is a nearly flat current rent path after a materially stronger five-year climb. Zillow ZORI, the ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, was $1,617 in June 2026. Its exact same-month one-year change was 0.21%, and its three-year change was only 0.05%, while the five-year change annualized to 2.55%. Recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer growth path: the current index remains above its earlier base, but the latest one- and three-year evidence offers little evidence of continuing acceleration. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The history series supplies unusually complete observation coverage but does not erase the recent slowdown. It has 138 observations and 100% coverage of the available monthly history. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.08%, a relatively restrained level that supports moderate confidence that the current ZIP rent snapshot is not dominated by large month-to-month swings. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 3.40%, showing that even this stable series experienced a meaningful retreat from a prior peak. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs place stability at 185, momentum at 2,372, and the balanced measure at 1,480. Those ranks describe historical pattern discovery only; they neither predict future rents nor establish an investment outcome.
Source definitions explain why several rent figures should not be treated as substitutes. The five-digit label 76137 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow reports asking-rent conditions, whereas ACS 2024 five-year data report a $1,741 median gross rent, with a $48 margin of error, for occupied renter homes and include selected utilities. The Zillow asking index is 7.1% below that ACS measure, but this does not establish that any current listing is cheaper than an occupied household's all-in rent. It chiefly reflects different populations, timing, rental types, and utility treatment.
The bedroom view is a scaling model, not a collection of measured bedroom rents. Using the local HUD ladder to scale ZIP ZORI produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,325 for a studio, $1,380 for one bedroom, $1,617 for two bedrooms, $2,036 for three bedrooms, and $2,588 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates only and should never be read as observed ZIP bedroom rents. The local HUD FY2026 FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its two-bedroom standard is $1,931. That higher HUD benchmark provides a policy-standard reference, not evidence that a two-bedroom listing in this ZIP asks that amount.
Income and burden measures point in different directions because one is an arithmetic screen and the other describes surveyed renter households. Applying a 30% rent-to-income calculation to the $1,617 monthly asking index gives required annual income of $64,680. Against the ZCTA median household income of $90,718, the asking-rent-to-income screen is 21.4%. This calculation is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In contrast, 50.3% of surveyed renter households were rent burdened at 30% or more, showing that the area-level median screen should not stand in for household-level affordability. ACS records 24,609 housing units, a 6.5% overall vacancy rate, a 41.4% renter share, and 775 units vacant for rent. The stock was predominantly single-family, with a smaller large-multifamily component; none of these aggregates proves availability, condition, or affordability for a particular unit.
Wider geographies supply context but cannot replace ZIP evidence. For Zillow asking-rent context, Fort Worth city measured $1,635, Tarrant County measured $1,639, and the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metro measured $1,673; each is a broader geography than ZIP 76137. On the separate ACS five-year occupied-renter universe, Fort Worth city context had $1,509 median gross rent and Tarrant County context had $1,547. Thus, the ZIP asking index sits modestly below the city, county, and metro Zillow context figures, while its ZCTA gross-rent measure exceeds the city and county ACS context measures. The contrast reinforces the need to retain geography and source scope in every comparison.
Redfin provides a separate direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, describing the for-sale market rather than rental transactions. Its median sold price was $329,925, down 1.51% year over year. Resale liquidity was visible in 160 homes sold, a median 30 days on market, reported inventory of 142 homes, and 2.7 months of supply. Sale-to-list evidence was also somewhat below full pricing pressure: the average sale-to-list ratio was 99.11%, while 23.74% of sales closed above list. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price produces a 5.88% screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or property-level economic result. The resale price decline challenges the longer rent-history gain, while the low recent rent momentum and measured resale activity together argue against treating either market snapshot as a simple directional confirmation of the other.
Several limits remain material before an aggregate ZIP reading is applied to an address. Zillow blends rental types and tracks typical observed asks; ACS has survey timing, occupied-home coverage, and sampling uncertainty; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin summarizes resale rather than leases. Concrete property-level checks should verify the actual bedroom count, current advertised rent, included utilities, lease term, listing status, and comparable active offers. For a purchase-side comparison, review the specific sale terms, list history, property condition, marketing exposure, and whether the address belongs to the same market identifier used by the data. Does the specific unit's current evidence match a ZIP picture of stable-but-currently-flat asking rents and an active, mildly softening resale market?
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP asking-rent index remains at a level shaped by longer-run growth, but the one-year and three-year same-month changes are nearly flat. That breaks from the stronger five-year annualized path. Complete history coverage and low variability make the present index a usable snapshot, yet they do not convert weak recent momentum into a forward-looking rent conclusion.","title":"Recent rent momentum has stalled"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI measures a blended typical asking-rent index, ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and selected utilities, and HUD FMR/SAFMR provides an administrative bedroom standard. The modelled bedroom ladder uses Zillow and HUD together, but it is not observed bedroom-rent evidence. Comparisons across these measures require their timing, population, and utility treatment to remain visible.","title":"Rent benchmarks answer different questions"},{"body":"The area-level 30% income screen places the current asking-rent index below the matched ZCTA median household income threshold, while about half of surveyed renter households are burdened at 30% or more. This divergence means the aggregate median screen is not a substitute for household circumstances, lease terms, utilities, or a unit-specific affordability determination.","title":"Median-income arithmetic and renter burden diverge"},{"body":"Redfin's rolling-three-month ZIP data show substantial resale activity, limited months of supply, and sale-to-list results slightly below full list-price realization, alongside a year-over-year median sold-price decline. The annualized-rent-to-sold-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio. It cannot establish a cap rate, return, rental demand level, or economics for any individual property.","title":"Resale evidence is active but not a rental comp set"}],"risks":["The current asking-rent index is supported by complete historical coverage and relatively low variability, but nearly flat one-year and three-year changes mean a single current observation should not be interpreted as evidence of renewed rent growth.","ACS burden, income, vacancy, and gross-rent figures are ZCTA-level five-year survey estimates for aggregate households, not evidence that a particular available unit has the same utilities, rent, condition, lease structure, or tenant affordability.","HUD bedroom standards and modelled bedroom estimates can be useful reference points, yet neither is measured asking rent for a specific apartment, house, floor plan, or lease term in the ZIP.","Redfin's direct ZIP resale indicators concern sold homes and active for-sale conditions, not rental transactions; combining its sold price with ZORI creates only a screening ratio and omits financing, expenses, property condition, and transaction-specific terms."],"qa":[{"a":"The two figures are drawn from different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and reports gross rent with selected utilities. Different timing, household occupancy, utility inclusion, and rental composition can produce a gap without showing an error or a unit-level bargain.","q":"Why is the Zillow figure lower than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP Zillow asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for maintaining a consistent bedroom relationship, but they are not measured rents from listings, leases, property managers, or a bedroom-specific ZIP rent survey.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for 76137?"},{"a":"It is arithmetic that divides the annualized ZIP asking-rent index by a 30% income share. It provides a standardized comparison with the area median household income, not underwriting guidance, tenant advice, or an applicant qualification rule. Individual affordability can differ because income, household size, utilities, debts, concessions, and lease terms are not captured by this screen.","q":"What does the required-income calculation mean?"},{"a":"It should be treated only as a cross-source screen formed by annualizing ZIP ZORI and dividing it by Redfin's ZIP median sold price. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or valuation conclusion. Property-level analysis would require actual rent, operating costs, financing terms, condition, taxes, insurance, and transaction details.","q":"How should the Redfin screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1029.340725},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1026.784984},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1030.638087},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1037.59611},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1044.759061},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1043.354505},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1044.834722},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1048.305295},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1060.925286},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1066.604644},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1079.56318},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1078.337177},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1081.36962},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1081.549062},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1081.082526},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1083.393643},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1078.725172},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1086.536747},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1093.275688},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1106.860361},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1105.956979},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1101.85002},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1095.467358},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1096.180118},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1103.835443},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1117.489614},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1130.707486},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1134.812272},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1136.127466},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1140.275764},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1142.716821},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1145.801034},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1153.461008},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1161.220593},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1164.980997},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1163.254622},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1168.770806},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1170.553652},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1161.91656},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1160.743093},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1167.109698},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1179.044575},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1186.352069},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1185.014055},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1191.398654},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1198.654325},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1205.877023},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1220.950255},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1218.289045},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1222.244131},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1233.715025},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1243.151643},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1249.371248},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1247.224848},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1249.850997},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1257.394704},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1259.337469},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1261.370908},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1265.622389},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1265.167126},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1273.007035},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1276.017232},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1271.424361},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1273.280736},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1270.003961},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1273.897116},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1275.188536},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1279.349776},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1290.481814},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1290.331438},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1308.479215},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1324.767727},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1353.295389},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1366.855109},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1371.341713},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1379.929142},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1397.97434},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1426.164612},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1447.707692},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1466.151683},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1478.874713},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1505.029929},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1524.018521},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1538.226584},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1536.238201},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1535.433053},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1548.45748},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1567.060328},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1576.876162},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1593.153577},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1600.395937},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1610.296},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1612.471508},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1617.993842},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1618.14641},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1619.644842},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1617.561255},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1620.521556},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1616.285961},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1618.30386},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1623.731768},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1614.877961},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1621.606709},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1616.212474},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1631.690036},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1615.767525},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1615.836481},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1609.799107},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1627.852767},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1631.378749},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1649.163728},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1647.446465},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1660.304179},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1647.971456},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1641.239092},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1633.7349},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1639.521891},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1646.983247},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1638.430765},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1628.632046},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1626.538645},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1640.527065},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1629.748539},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1624.269422},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1607.860998},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1614.106054},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1614.589596},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1620.625968},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1608.619561},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1608.600097},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1614.136402},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1623.218629},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1616.564844},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1603.828573},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1604.140598},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1608.508638},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1614.343374},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1617.46271}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1614.106054,"endRent":1617.46271,"change":0.002079575869058603,"cagr":0.002079575869058603},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1614.877961,"endRent":1617.46271,"change":0.0016005847267861473,"cagr":0.0005332438427236852},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1426.164612,"endRent":1617.46271,"change":0.13413465485707898,"cagr":0.02549352888259926}},"maxDrawdown":-0.034015216437035756,"annualizedVolatility":0.02084404180494772,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}