At $1,447 per month in June 2026, the central measured tension in 76201 is that the current asking-rent benchmark sits materially above both local income and the survey-rent reference. The arithmetic 30% required-income screen is $57,880 annually, versus a matched-ZCTA median household income of $39,982. That creates a 43.4% asking-rent-to-income screen; it is not affordability advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,164 among occupied renter homes, including selected utilities, while 60.8% of surveyed renter households reported gross-rent burdens at or above 30%. Together, those measures indicate budget pressure within the ACS survey universe, but they do not establish the rent, utilities, or eligibility of any particular available unit.
Recent asking-rent direction breaks from 76201’s longer path. Exact same-month Zillow history shows a one-year change of −3.0%, a three-year annualized change of −0.2%, and a five-year annualized gain of 3.9%. The longer record therefore retains a positive backward-looking rise, but the nearer windows are flat to down rather than confirming it. The series contains 116 monthly observations with 100% coverage, which supports continuity of measurement. Its 3.5% annualized monthly-return variability, however, supports limited confidence in treating one current ZORI reading as a fixed market level. Separately, the 3.8% maximum drawdown records the largest observed peak-to-trough decline. Transparent national discovery ranks of 2,780 for momentum, 2,273 for stability, and 2,813 for balanced performance compare history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are higher; they are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The five-digit 76201 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes. A bedroom lens can be constructed by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder: $1,182 for a studio, $1,235 for one bedroom, $1,447 for two bedrooms, $1,818 for three bedrooms, and $2,320 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. The local HUD standards range from $1,340 for a studio to $2,630 for four bedrooms; HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent.
Housing composition makes the renter-oriented evidence especially relevant, although it remains survey evidence rather than a live inventory count. The matched ZCTA contains 13,814 housing units, including 10,183 renter-occupied homes, for an 81.0% renter share. Its housing stock includes both single-family units and large multifamily structures, so the blended ZORI and ACS median need not describe the same building type or lease terms. Overall vacancy is 9.0%, and 589 units are classified as vacant for rent in ACS. Those vacancy fields cannot prove that a specific unit is available, competitively priced, or suitable for a particular renter. ACS estimates also carry survey uncertainty and should be read as area-level conditions rather than unit-level facts.
Wider geographies place the ZIP’s asking-rent level below surrounding rent context: Denton city context rent is $1,480, Denton County context rent is $1,706, and Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metro context rent is $1,673. Those city, county, and metro figures are context only, not substitutes for the ZIP index or ZCTA survey. The contrast is sharper in tenure composition: Denton city context has a 50.0% renter share and Denton County context has a 34.5% renter share, both below the ZCTA’s renter concentration. Denton city context vacancy is 6.4%, while Denton County context vacancy is 4.3%; these are wider-area comparisons and do not convert into a ZIP-level availability estimate.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation describes the for-sale market, not rental transactions. It reports a median sold price of $286,935, down 5.9% from a year earlier, with 22 homes sold and a median 73 days on market. Inventory stood at 65 homes, up 24.1%, while months of supply reached 9.1. Sale-to-list evidence also points to a less aggressive resale setting: the average sale-to-list ratio was 96.0%, and 19.1% of sales closed above list price. These are direct 76201 resale liquidity and pricing signals, rather than rental comparables or evidence of the economics of any rental property. The lower sale price, slower marketing time, larger inventory, and ample supply reinforce rather than contradict the recent weakening in ZIP asking-rent history.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price produces a 6.1% cross-source screening ratio. It is only a screen built from an asking-rent index and a resale median; it does not measure expenses, financing, taxes, repairs, concessions, vacancy experience, or realized property economics. The resale-price decline can mechanically raise that ratio even as asking rents are falling, so the figure should not outweigh the one-year rent decline, high variability, or affordability screen. The main evidence tension remains that current ZORI is above ACS gross rent and local median income while both recent asking-rent history and direct resale conditions show softer near-term readings.
Property-level interpretation requires checks that the area aggregates cannot supply: verify the date and amount of the advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, concessions, availability status, building type, and whether a service address falls inside the relevant statistical geography. For a sale comparison, confirm the individual transaction date, condition, list-price history, and whether the property is comparable to the rental being evaluated. These checks matter because ZORI, ACS, HUD, and Redfin each observe different universes and time structures. Does the specific unit’s current quote, utility treatment, and lease structure still resemble the broad ZIP signals described here?
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP asking-rent index is above both the matched-ZCTA ACS median gross rent and the local median household income screen. The 30% income calculation is arithmetic rather than a leasing rule, but the combination with the surveyed burden share indicates that area-level renter budgets are already strained in the ACS universe.","title":"Income and survey-rent gap is the leading tension"},{"body":"The five-year same-month rent history remains positive, but both the one-year and three-year measures are negative. High variability means the current ZORI is a useful benchmark, not a precise guarantee of what every listing should command. Full historical coverage improves continuity, not certainty about future rent direction.","title":"Recent rent movement is weaker than the long record"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a lower median sold price from a year earlier, longer marketing time, increased inventory, substantial months of supply, and sale-to-list signals below full list price. Those for-sale observations are not rental evidence, but they align with rather than challenge the recent decline in the asking-rent index.","title":"Resale conditions reinforce a softer near-term reading"},{"body":"The bedroom figures are HUD-scaled modelled estimates based on ZIP ZORI, not observed bedroom rents. City, county, and metro values provide broader context, while the ZCTA survey is a statistical-area measure that does not exactly match a USPS ZIP. Different geographies, housing mixes, and source definitions prevent direct one-for-one comparisons.","title":"Bedroom and geographic comparisons require scope discipline"}],"risks":["A blended ZIP asking-rent index can differ from current quotes for a specific bedroom count, building type, lease length, utility package, concession structure, or available-unit condition.","Negative recent rent history does not prove an ongoing decline, while the high-variability classification means a single current ZORI snapshot should carry less confidence than a stable series would.","Redfin resale metrics reflect sold homes and active for-sale conditions over a rolling period, so they cannot identify rental demand, landlord expenses, tenant turnover, or a property’s realized economics.","ACS ZCTA estimates are survey-based and geographically distinct from USPS delivery ZIP boundaries; renter burden and vacancy rates describe area aggregates rather than the circumstances of a particular household or unit."],"qa":[{"a":"The Zillow figure is ZIP-level ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not a contract-rent average, a utility-inclusive rent measure, or a quote for a specific apartment. A current listing can differ because of bedroom count, property type, condition, lease terms, and concessions.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure represent?"},{"a":"No. The required-income figure simply annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index and applies a 30% arithmetic screen. It is not financial advice, a legal affordability determination, or a landlord qualification standard. Actual qualification can depend on a property’s stated rent, income policy, credit policy, lease terms, and other criteria not supplied here.","q":"Does the required-income calculation determine whether someone can rent a unit?"},{"a":"Redfin is direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence for the for-sale market. Its sold price, days on market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list measures can provide a separate liquidity and pricing context. They are not rental transactions, rental comparables, or proof of rental performance for any individual home or apartment.","q":"How should the Redfin resale data be used with the rent data?"},{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents, ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes including selected utilities, and HUD standards are administrative bedroom-specific benchmarks. City, county, and metro figures also cover wider geographies, while a Census ZCTA is statistical and does not exactly equal a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"Why do Zillow, ACS, HUD, and local context figures differ?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 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