At $1,619 in June 2026, the 76502 asking-rent signal is caught between a nearly flat recent year and a weaker medium-term path. The exact same-month one-year change was 0.04%, while the three-year annualized change was negative 0.79%; the five-year annualized change remained positive at 2.10%. That near-stall therefore extends the more recent retreat rather than confirming the longer five-year advance. This is backward-looking rent evidence, not a forecast: the current level is still the central ZIP asking-rent snapshot, but its meaning depends on how consistently the history has held and how it compares with household and resale measures.
The history file has full 100% coverage, with 137 Zillow ZIP observations producing 136 consecutive monthly returns, which supports continuity in the measurement rather than certainty about future rents. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.03% suggests that the observed asking-rent index has moved within a comparatively narrow range, so one current snapshot carries more confidence than it would in a highly erratic series. Separately, the maximum drawdown of 3.53% shows that declines have nevertheless occurred. In the national history-eligible ZIP discovery universe, where a lower rank is higher, 76502 placed 2,479th for momentum, 149th for stability, and 1,581st for the balanced measure. Those transparent ranks describe past rent patterns only; their main implication is that stability is stronger than recent directional momentum.
Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a record of every lease or a measured bedroom-by-bedroom rent survey. Scaling that ZIP ZORI through the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,291 for a studio, $1,300 for one bedroom, $1,619 for two bedrooms, $2,247 for three bedrooms, and $2,715 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The local FY2026 HUD two-bedroom standard is $1,233; HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The 76502 label is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The matched Census ZCTA ACS five-year survey provides a different housing universe: occupied renter homes, with median gross rent including selected utilities, rather than current listings. Its 2024 median gross rent was $1,480, placing the Zillow asking-rent index 9.4% higher. Median household income was $82,088. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, annual income of $64,760 is arithmetically associated with the current annualized asking-rent index; that screen is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. Survey burden data add a separate caution: 3,434 of 6,992 renter households, or 49.1%, were reported as spending at least 30% of income on rent. ACS margins of error mean the household and burden figures should be treated as survey estimates, not exact counts.
The ZCTA's housing base offers context for that burden result without establishing conditions at any specific address. Of 20,863 housing units, 1,371 were vacant, a 6.6% vacancy rate, while renters represented 35.9% of occupied households. The vacant inventory included 493 units classified as for rent; that category does not prove availability, condition, price, or concessions for a particular unit. The structure mix was led by 15,685 single-family units, alongside 1,165 units in large multifamily buildings. Together, the relatively modest renter share and the large single-family count describe the survey stock, while the measured asking-rent level and the burden statistic remain separate evidence streams.
Wider geographies provide context, not substitutes for ZIP evidence: Temple city context showed a typical rent of $1,428 and a 47.7% renter share; Bell County context showed $1,346 and a 43.5% renter share; and Killeen-Temple, TX metro context showed a typical rent of $1,339. The ZIP asking-rent index sits above each of those broader rent measures, while its renter share is lower than both the named city and county context. These comparisons do not convert city, county, or metro values into ZIP rental comps, and they should not be merged with the ZCTA's ACS gross-rent survey or HUD's administrative standard.
Redfin supplies direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence, a for-sale market observation rather than rental transactions. In that resale universe, the median sold price was $294,933, down 2.58% year over year; 317 homes sold and median marketing time was 86 days. Inventory stood at 500 homes, 9.1% below a year earlier, with 4.8 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 98.55%, and 9.1% of sales closed above list price. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price produces a 6.59% cross-source screening ratio only, not a measure of transaction economics. Softer sold prices, lengthy marketing time, and below-list average sales challenge any reading of the stable rent index as evidence of uniformly strong housing-market pressure.
Several limits remain material. Zillow reflects asking rents rather than executed leases; ACS is a multi-year survey of occupied homes; HUD standards are not market quotations; and Redfin's ZIP resale series concerns sold homes rather than rentals. Property-level resolution requires checking the actual bedroom count, current advertised rent, utilities included, lease term, fees, concessions, condition, availability date, and whether a home's list and sale details match the rolling resale measure. It also requires distinguishing a unit's observed asking price from the modelled bedroom ladder. The key unresolved question is whether a specific property can support its quoted rent and sale comparison after those unit-level facts are separated from these broad ZIP indicators.
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP's one-year asking-rent movement was essentially flat, while its three-year annualized path was negative despite a positive five-year annualized gain. Full historical coverage and low measured variability make the current ZORI reading more dependable as a descriptive snapshot than a volatile series would be. However, the history does not support treating the current level as evidence that prior long-run growth is continuing.","title":"Rent history is stable, but recent momentum is weak"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom figures are generated by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are useful for organizing bedroom-size scenarios around the ZIP-wide asking-rent index, but they are not measured rents for available apartments or houses. HUD FMR/SAFMR remains an administrative standard, so neither it nor the derived ladder should replace property-specific asking-rent verification.","title":"The bedroom ladder is a scaling model, not a rent survey"},{"body":"Median household income exceeds the arithmetic income threshold associated with the current asking-rent index at a 30% screen. Yet nearly half of surveyed renter households were rent burdened at or above that same percentage. These results are not contradictory: household median income, renter-only burden, ACS gross rent, and Zillow asking rent represent different populations and measurement concepts.","title":"Household affordability indicators point in different directions"},{"body":"Redfin's direct ZIP resale data show a year-over-year decline in median sold price, long marketing time, supply near five months, and average sales below list price. Those for-sale signals do not establish rental pricing, but they challenge an overly strong interpretation of the steady asking-rent index. The ZORI-to-price figure is only a cross-source screen and contains no expense, financing, vacancy, or property-condition information.","title":"Resale evidence tempers the rent snapshot"}],"risks":["The ZIP asking-rent index blends rental types and reflects advertised market conditions, so it may differ materially from signed lease rents for a specific bedroom count, condition level, utility package, or lease term.","ACS rent, income, occupancy, vacancy, and burden figures are five-year survey estimates for the matched ZCTA, with sampling uncertainty, and should not be interpreted as a current count of occupants or available homes.","The modelled bedroom estimates inherit the ZIP-wide ZORI and HUD ladder structure; they cannot identify concessions, fees, furnishing, utility treatment, unit condition, or actual availability at an individual property.","Redfin resale statistics describe sold homes and current for-sale market conditions over a rolling three-month period. They do not provide rental comparables, operating costs, transaction-specific economics, or evidence about a property's future performance."],"qa":[{"a":"The two figures cover different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A higher ZORI can therefore reflect current advertised pricing without contradicting the lower survey median.","q":"Why does the ZIP asking-rent index exceed ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. They organize a bedroom-size scenario around the ZIP-level index, but they are not measurements of listings, signed leases, apartment transactions, or rents at particular properties.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents for 76502?"},{"a":"It is a mechanical affordability screen: annualizing the current ZIP asking-rent index and dividing by 30% produces the stated income amount. It is not financial advice, a rent recommendation, a tenant-screening threshold, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual affordability depends on household income, debts, utilities, fees, and lease terms.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"It should be used only as a cross-source comparison between annualized ZIP ZORI and Redfin's median ZIP sold price. It is not a property-level return measure because it excludes expenses, taxes, insurance, maintenance, financing, vacancy, renovations, and transaction costs. Redfin's data remain evidence about the for-sale market, not rentals.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-price screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1087.198209},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1100.112094},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1098.15353},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1099.963755},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1099.069017},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1097.463049},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1105.010504},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1111.585156},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1116.519744},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1105.123296},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1103.601754},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1103.768966},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1111.23913},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1117.822625},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1122.06466},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1120.790323},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1118.536947},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1123.932817},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1122.517954},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1124.574416},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1123.839836},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1132.666993},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1138.322491},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1137.931747},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1140.562854},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1137.506481},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1136.658634},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1134.801399},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1136.312464},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1143.329782},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1145.181221},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1145.874177},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1142.480311},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1143.989479},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1155.820075},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1165.94007},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1169.038733},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1163.074044},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1163.669542},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1160.675891},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1168.736939},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1165.876054},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1168.599709},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1165.518565},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1175.574116},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1183.294954},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1185.331011},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1188.138691},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1190.275146},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1203.162048},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1210.983182},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1223.023276},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1225.154226},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1231.544195},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1237.252667},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1247.502625},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1250.002654},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1250.646684},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1250.983475},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1253.10021},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1258.351257},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1263.791165},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1262.002807},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1258.42867},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1260.329228},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1277.318851},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1295.497855},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1303.893889},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1320.738828},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1335.791609},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1354.334804},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1349.920861},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1364.480379},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1377.288291},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1410.236228},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1429.076513},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1459.312544},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1473.062976},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1498.434594},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1517.141162},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1535.02994},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1544.91011},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1559.443699},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1577.989101},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1586.084644},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1603.061024},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1611.689943},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1629.808997},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1633.792103},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1639.890723},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1638.02428},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1636.130085},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1629.1706},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1627.207017},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1635.322871},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1656.231964},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1662.844368},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1656.892122},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1646.527125},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1650.436067},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1657.999428},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1661.657514},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1655.020081},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1650.463878},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1651.165687},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1656.040879},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1650.595766},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1639.488305},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1635.401901},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1639.363389},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1641.177932},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1629.041276},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1612.962359},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1604.093824},{"period":"2024-0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