For 76542, the five-digit label is Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and has a matching Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI was $1,453 per month, down 2.6% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-specific quote or a measure of occupied-home rents. For wider context, the Killeen city-context rent was $1,253.85, the Bell County context rent was $1,346, and the Killeen-Temple, TX metro-context rent was $1,339. Those city, county, and metro figures are broader-geography context, not substitutes for the ZIP reading.
The current decline breaks from the longer rent path rather than confirming it. Exact same-month ZORI change was -2.6% over 1 year, compared with annualized gains of 0.1% over 3 years and 2.8% over 5 years. The history is complete at 100% coverage, so the cooling classification is based on the available monthly ZIP series rather than a partial interval. Monthly ZORI changes had 2.5% annualized volatility, which supports only moderate confidence in any single current asking-rent snapshot because month-to-month movement has occurred. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 3.2%, showing that the prior retreat was limited in scale. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,714 for momentum, 706 for stability, and 2,215 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The ZIP resale record presents the central tension. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation reports a $284,936 median sold price, up 3.3% year over year, while the asking-rent index was declining. It recorded 190 homes sold and a median 74 days on market. Active listings stood at 546, reported inventory was 323 homes and had fallen 10.7% from a year earlier, and months of supply were 5.1. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.8%; 10.8% of sales closed above list, while 22.0% went off market within two weeks. This is resale liquidity and pricing evidence, not rental transaction evidence. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price equals a 6.1% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a property-level performance measure. Rising resale pricing challenges the cooling rent signal, while the slower marketing and below-list average leave that challenge incomplete.
The bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. They scale the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder, producing monthly estimates of $1,158 for a studio, $1,167 for a one-bedroom, $1,453 for a two-bedroom, $2,016 for a three-bedroom, and $2,437 for a four-bedroom. HUD’s two-bedroom fair-market-rent standard is $1,233. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard and is not asking rent; it supplies the local relative ladder used in the model, rather than direct evidence that a listed unit rents at any of these amounts. Differences by condition, utility treatment, lease term, and exact unit characteristics remain unresolved by the modelled ladder.
The supplied ACS matched-ZCTA five-year survey reports median household income of $74,055 and median gross rent of $1,355. ACS gross rent is a survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it belongs to a different evidence universe from Zillow’s observed asking-rent index. The current asking-rent reading is 7.2% above that ACS median. Applying the arithmetic 30% income screen to the ZIP ZORI produces required annual income of $58,120. That screen is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule; it simply compares a monthly asking-rent index with annual household income. Within the ACS renter survey universe, 47.3% of renter households reported paying at least that share of income toward rent, a burden measure that cannot establish the circumstances of a particular unit or household.
The ZCTA housing base contains 20,903 units, including 15,230 single-family units and 739 units in large multifamily structures. Its vacancy rate is 5.7%, and renters account for 34.7% of occupied homes. The survey also identifies 553 units as vacant for rent. These stock and vacancy figures describe an area-wide housing inventory and renter composition, not a count of units currently comparable with ZORI or the modelled bedroom rents. In particular, vacant-for-rent status does not prove that a unit is available at the current asking-rent index, has a given bedroom count, or is suitable for a particular household. The relatively limited large-multifamily count also cannot by itself determine the mix of actively marketed rental types within Zillow’s blended index.
The evidence therefore has to remain compartmentalized. Zillow supplies the ZIP asking-rent signal and its history; ACS supplies occupied-renter, income, burden, housing-stock, and vacancy survey context for the matched ZCTA; HUD supplies the administrative bedroom ladder; and Redfin supplies ZIP resale observations. The Killeen city, Bell County, and Killeen-Temple metro comparisons help position the ZIP’s current asking-rent level, but they do not alter the direct ZIP results. The notable decision tension is not a confirmed causal relationship: it is the coexistence of cooling observed asking rent, a comparatively modest historical drawdown, and a resale median that rose in the Redfin window. Each source captures a distinct population, timing convention, and market activity.
Important limits remain before translating area evidence to a property. Concrete property-level checks include the exact bedroom count, asking rent, included utilities, lease term, property condition, listing date, concession treatment, and whether a listing is newly available or merely still marketed. For a sale comparison, relevant unresolved details include property type, living area, condition, transaction date, list-price changes, and the comparability of recent nearby sales. The ACS burden and vacancy measures should not be used to infer a specific tenant’s finances or a specific home’s occupancy. The practical unresolved question is whether a particular unit’s verified terms align with the ZIP asking-rent index and its modelled ladder while remaining distinct from the separately observed resale market.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP Zillow ZORI was $1,453 in June 2026, down 2.6% year over year, following nearly flat three-year annualized growth and positive five-year annualized growth. In contrast, Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation showed a $284,936 median sold price, up 3.3%. The contrast is informative but does not show that either market caused the other.","title":"Cooling rent signal contrasts with resale appreciation"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures use ZIP ZORI scaled by the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are modelled monthly estimates intended to express relative bedroom sizing, not measured rents from unit-level listings or leases. HUD’s standards are administrative bedroom-specific benchmarks, while ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types.","title":"Bedroom rents are scaled estimates, not observed unit rents"},{"body":"The 30% arithmetic screen converts the current ZIP asking-rent index into $58,120 of annual income, below the matched-ZCTA ACS median household income of $74,055. ACS nevertheless reports that 47.3% of renter households were burdened at that threshold. The comparison is descriptive and cannot determine qualification, household circumstances, or affordability for a particular dwelling.","title":"Affordability evidence changes with the source universe"},{"body":"Redfin reported 190 ZIP home sales, 74 median days on market, 5.1 months of supply, and an average sale-to-list ratio below list. Inventory had declined from a year earlier, yet the marketing and sale-to-list measures do not indicate an unqualified bidding environment. These are direct for-sale observations, not rental-market transactions or rental comparables.","title":"Resale liquidity is neither uniformly tight nor clearly weak"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it can differ materially from the asking rent, concessions, utility treatment, condition, and lease terms of any specific available property.","ACS matched-ZCTA estimates describe occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and include selected utilities; they should not be treated as current advertised-rent observations or evidence about individual households.","The modelled bedroom ladder inherits the ZIP index and HUD relative standards, but it does not observe bedroom-specific listings, unit quality, building type, utility obligations, or lease concessions.","Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale metrics concern for-sale transactions and listings. A rising median sold price alongside falling asking rent is a cross-market tension, not proof of a relationship or property-level outcome."],"qa":[{"a":"The $1,453 figure is Zillow ZORI for the ZIP, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for the direction and level of advertised rent, but it is not a unit-specific lease quote, an occupied-home rent measure, or a bedroom-specific observation.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure measure?"},{"a":"The data show a divergence, not an explanation. Zillow captures asking-rent conditions, while Redfin captures direct rolling-three-month for-sale activity. The rent index declined year over year as the resale median increased, but the supplied evidence does not establish causation, timing alignment beyond the stated periods, or a common set of properties.","q":"How can asking rents fall while the median sold price rises?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than asking rent, so the resulting figures should not be read as observed listings, executed leases, or guaranteed rent levels.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual measured rents for studios through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"It performs arithmetic only: annualizing the ZIP asking-rent index and dividing by 30% produces an income comparison point. It is not financial advice, a tenant-screening rule, or an applicant qualification standard. ACS burden data provides separate survey context and cannot identify whether a particular household can afford a particular unit.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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