The five-digit label, 76543, is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the match for a Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI was $1,174 per month, down 0.3% from a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-level measure for a defined unit. In wider context only, Killeen city’s rent context was $1,253.85, Bell County’s rent context was $1,346, and the Killeen-Temple, TX metro rent context was $1,339. The ZIP’s lower current asking-rent index is therefore the leading tension: it sits below each broader benchmark while its own recent direction has softened.
The historical path qualifies that current softness. Exact same-month ZIP ZORI changes were -0.3% over one year, +0.13% over three years, and +3.12% over five years. The latest annual decline breaks from the modestly positive medium- and longer-term path, making the cooling category more informative than a single month’s rent level. Month-to-month rent changes were relatively contained, with 2.35% annualized variability, but the historical series also experienced a 2.21% maximum drawdown. Those measures should not be collapsed into one conclusion: low variability supports somewhat more confidence in the stability of a current index reading, while the drawdown shows that declines have occurred. History has full coverage through the stated endpoint. Its transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 464 for stability and 2,473 for momentum, where lower ranks are higher; these are backward-looking discovery measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The ACS comparison is useful only after keeping its universe separate. In the matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,143 with a $47 margin of error; that survey covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The current asking-rent index is 2.7% above that historical-survey median, a modest difference that does not establish what a newly marketed unit will cost. HUD’s local two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard was $1,233, placing the ZIP asking-rent index 4.8% below that administrative benchmark. HUD FMR/SAFMR is bedroom-specific program-standard information, not asking rent, and it should not be used as a substitute for a lease comp or as proof of market availability.
Bedroom figures here are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. They scale the ZIP’s overall ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder, preserving the local standard’s relative bedroom steps rather than claiming that Zillow observed separate bedroom medians. The resulting monthly estimates are $936 for a studio, $943 for one bedroom, $1,174 for two bedrooms, $1,629 for three bedrooms, and $1,969 for four bedrooms. The unusually small step from studio to one bedroom and the much larger steps above two bedrooms are features of that modelling ladder. A reader comparing a particular listing should therefore treat the figures as a structured benchmark for bedroom size, then verify the actual unit’s bedroom count, rent components, condition, and availability.
The income and burden screen adds a second form of tension. Median household income in the ZCTA was $48,564, while annual income required to devote 30% of gross income to the current annualized asking-rent index is $46,960. That arithmetic produces a 29.0% asking-rent-to-income screen, close to but below the 30% threshold. It is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or a statement about any household’s budget. The ACS burden measure nevertheless shows that 4,771 of 8,271 renter households, or 57.7%, were paying at least 30% of income toward rent. Thus, a ZIP-level income screen that appears near the threshold coexists with a high observed survey burden among occupied renter households; the measures describe different populations and should not be treated as contradictory unit-level facts.
Housing composition and vacancy reinforce the need for caution when reading the asking-rent snapshot. The ZCTA housing stock included 8,110 single-family units and 1,018 units in large multifamily structures. Renters occupied 60.5% of occupied homes, making rental conditions particularly relevant to the area-wide housing picture. The vacancy rate was 11.3%, and 922 units were reported vacant for rent. That vacancy rate is above the wider Killeen city and Bell County context rates, while the ZIP’s renter share is also higher than those broader context shares. These ACS measures are area-level estimates, not a live count of vacant listings. They cannot demonstrate that a particular property is available, that its owner is reducing rent, or that its condition and lease terms match another advertised unit.
The direct ZIP resale evidence points in a different direction from the cooling rent index. In Redfin’s rolling-three-month 76543 for-sale observation, the median sold price was $194,956, up 1.8% year over year; 82 homes sold, median marketing time was 47 days, and inventory was 158 homes. Months of supply stood at 5.8. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.34%, while 13.76% of sales closed above list price. These are resale-market observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 7.23% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Higher resale prices alongside a slightly lower asking-rent index challenge any simple claim that both markets are moving together, while the supply and sale-to-list signals describe a resale environment that is not captured by rent history or affordability screens.
These sources answer different questions and carry distinct limits. ZORI provides a blended asking-rent index, ACS provides a lagged five-year survey of occupied households, HUD provides administrative bedroom standards, and Redfin records rolling ZIP resale activity. None identifies a unit’s included utilities, effective rent after concessions, lease term, maintenance condition, occupancy status, or transaction expenses. Property-level diligence would need current same-bedroom listings, confirmed advertised versus effective rent, utility responsibility, lease concessions, actual vacancy and days marketed, comparable closed sales, and the property’s physical characteristics. The central evidence question is therefore not whether one headline measure is decisive, but whether a specific property’s current terms align with the ZIP’s cooling rent history, high renter burden, elevated area vacancy, and firmer recent resale price signal.
","findings":[{"body":"The June 2026 ZIP asking-rent index was $1,174 and declined 0.3% year over year. It was below the wider Killeen city, Bell County, and Killeen-Temple metro rent context values. That positioning is a ZIP-level asking-rent comparison, not evidence that every property is discounted or that broader-area rents determine a specific unit’s lease terms.","title":"Asking rents are cooling below wider benchmarks"},{"body":"Exact same-month history was slightly negative over one year but positive over three and five years. Relatively low monthly-return variability supports more confidence in the index’s general stability than a highly erratic series would, yet the recorded maximum drawdown confirms that declines are part of the historical record. These are backward-looking measurements, not a rent forecast.","title":"Recent weakness interrupts, rather than erases, the longer path"},{"body":"The 30% required-income calculation places current annualized asking rent just below the ZCTA median household income benchmark. Separately, ACS reports that a majority of occupied renter households were rent burdened at the 30% threshold. The calculation is arithmetic, while the burden statistic is a survey outcome among occupied renters; neither establishes affordability for a particular applicant or unit.","title":"Affordability arithmetic and renter burden point to different populations"},{"body":"The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation showed a higher median sold price from a year earlier, while ZORI was modestly lower. Homes sold below list on average and months of supply were measurable, adding liquidity context without converting resale data into rental evidence. The annualized-rent-to-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a property-level return measure.","title":"Resale strength does not match the cooling rent signal"}],"risks":["The ZCTA is a statistical approximation rather than a USPS delivery geography, so ZIP-level rent, ACS household, and vacancy evidence may not perfectly represent every address using the same mailing ZIP.","ACS median gross rent, household income, burden, and vacancy are five-year survey estimates for the matched ZCTA, not current leasing observations, and their margins of error limit precision around small differences.","Bedroom estimates are modelled from the overall ZIP asking-rent index and HUD ladder. They are not observed bedroom medians and can differ from actual advertised rents because unit quality, utilities, concessions, and lease terms vary.","Redfin resale metrics describe for-sale transactions over a rolling three-month window. They do not establish rental demand, operating costs, lease performance, property condition, or economics for a particular home."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A difference between them can reflect timing, unit mix, occupied versus marketed homes, and utility treatment rather than a contradiction.","q":"Why does the asking-rent index differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the overall ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The calculation provides a consistent bedroom-size framework, but it does not mean separate rents were directly observed for each bedroom count. Actual listings require confirmation of unit size, condition, utilities, concessions, and lease length.","q":"Are the studio through four-bedroom figures actual market rents?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index and calculates the gross income associated with allocating 30% of income to that amount. It is not financial advice, an applicant-screening standard, or a qualification rule. Individual affordability depends on household income, debts, utilities, household size, rent concessions, and the terms of a specific lease.","q":"Does the 30% required-income screen determine whether a household can afford a unit?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the ZIP median sold price from Redfin’s rolling three-month resale observation. It is useful only as a cross-source screening comparison between a broad asking-rent index and a broad median sale price. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or measure of expenses, financing, occupancy, or property-specific income.","q":"What does the rent-to-sale-price screening ratio mean?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + 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