At $1,334 in June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 76549 was 0.46% below its prior-year reading, a small current retreat rather than a rise. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a contract-rent series. The Killeen city context asking-rent figure is $1,254, the Bell County context figure is $1,346, and the Killeen-Temple, TX metro context figure is $1,339; each is wider context rather than a ZIP comparison sample. The ZIP label is both Zillow’s market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA, but a ZCTA is a statistical area, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP.
Source definitions create a material rent-level distinction. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey places median gross rent at $1,517 with a $59 margin of error, making that survey measure 13.8% higher than ZORI. ACS describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it is not a direct asking-rent substitute. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom standard is $1,233, placing ZORI 8.2% above it. That HUD figure is an administrative bedroom-specific FMR or SAFMR standard, not observed asking rent, lease rent, or a market rent estimate.
Bedroom figures should therefore be read as modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. Scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces an estimated progression of $1,064 for a studio, $1,071 for one bedroom, $1,334 for two bedrooms, $1,851 for three bedrooms, and $2,237 for four bedrooms. The nearly identical studio and one-bedroom estimates reflect the local HUD ladder rather than observed unit listings. These figures are useful for translating a blended index into a consistent bedroom framework, but they cannot establish the rent of a particular available unit.
The matched ZCTA’s housing base contains 21,522 units, including 16,296 single-family units and 313 units in large multifamily structures. There were 1,685 vacant units, equivalent to a 7.8% vacancy rate, while 8,859 renter-occupied homes represented a 44.7% renter share. Among those renter households, 50.2% reported spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. Separately, annualizing the current ZORI makes $53,360 the income associated with a 30% rent screen, and annualized ZORI equals 22.6% of the area’s median household income. That screen is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule; likewise, burden data do not prove the payment pressure in any individual unit.
The rent path is cooling at the latest point but not uniformly weak over longer backward-looking windows. Exact same-month annualized ZORI change was negative 0.46% over one year, versus gains of 0.35% over three years and 3.36% over five years. Thus, the recent decline breaks from the longer positive path, although the longer gains were modest rather than rapid. History coverage is 100%, supporting complete use of the available series. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.08% indicates relatively limited month-to-month movement, while the maximum drawdown of 1.01% shows the worst observed peak-to-trough decline was shallow. The stability discovery rank was 182 and momentum rank was 2,483 among history-eligible ZIPs; these transparent national ranks are discovery tools, not forecasts, ratings, or investment recommendations. Low variability supports somewhat more confidence in the current index snapshot, but the latest decline still warrants separation from the multi-year average.
Direct ZIP resale evidence broadly echoes the cooling direction, while remaining a separate for-sale universe. Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP observation through June 30 shows a $243,945 median sold price, down 2.79% year over year, with 193 homes sold and a median 70 days on market. Inventory stood at 273 homes, down 1.06%, and months of supply were 4.3. The average sale closed at 98.45% of list price, while 17.04% of sales closed above list. Those measures describe resale liquidity, pricing, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list outcomes—not rental transactions or rental comparables. Falling sale prices alongside a slight ZORI decline confirms a shared cooling signal, whereas the volume of completed sales means the resale evidence is not simply an absence of transactions.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price produces a 6.56% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or statement of property economics because it excludes expenses, financing, operating conditions, vacancy experience, and unit-level matching. The broader context also needs restraint: city, county, and metro figures identify wider geographies with different household, rental, and housing compositions. The ZIP’s asking-rent index sits close to the county and metro context figures, while the ACS gross-rent measure remains materially above the current asking-rent index, reinforcing why a single rent statistic should not control the interpretation.
The available evidence supports a bounded reading rather than a property conclusion. ZORI is blended across rental types, ACS is a survey estimate with sampling uncertainty, HUD is administrative, and Redfin is a resale observation. Property-level review should verify the advertised asking rent and date, bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, condition, concessions, and whether any comparison actually matches the unit under review. It should also distinguish a vacant unit from a rentable, comparable unit and separate listing evidence from signed-lease evidence. Which source answers the specific question being asked: current asking rents, occupied-household costs, administrative standards, or resale conditions?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s ZIP-level asking-rent index declined slightly from the same month a year earlier. That current movement differs from the positive three- and five-year annualized history, making the latest reading a cooling signal rather than evidence that the full historical path has been negative. Limited historical variability and a shallow maximum drawdown make the index comparatively stable, but do not eliminate the significance of the latest retreat.","title":"Current asking-rent signal is mildly negative"},{"body":"ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, and HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The gap between the ACS figure and current ZORI should not be interpreted as a contradiction without recognizing those separate universes. The bedroom ladder is a ZORI-scaled HUD model, not a set of observed bedroom-specific rents.","title":"Rent measures are not interchangeable"},{"body":"The annual income associated with spending 30% of income on annualized ZORI falls below the matched ZCTA median household income, yet about half of renter households report gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. This is a population-level tension, not proof that a specific available home is affordable or unaffordable. ACS burden figures describe occupied renter households and retain survey uncertainty.","title":"Affordability screen and burden data point to household pressure"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation shows lower median sold prices from a year earlier, marketing time measured in months rather than immediate turnover, and average sales below list price. Those resale indicators generally align with the slight current rent decline, but they do not measure leases or landlord economics. The rent-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screening ratio and cannot substitute for property-specific financial analysis.","title":"Resale conditions align with cooling but remain distinct"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the advertised price, concessions, utility treatment, condition, or lease terms of a specific available property.","The ACS matched ZCTA is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, carries sampling margins of error, includes selected utilities in gross rent, and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.","HUD bedroom standards are administrative benchmarks rather than observed asking rents; using them to scale ZORI creates modelled bedroom estimates that may differ from actual listings in either direction.","Redfin figures describe direct ZIP resale activity over a rolling period, not rental transactions; sale prices, inventory, marketing time, and sale-to-list outcomes should not be treated as rental operating results."],"qa":[{"a":"The two measures observe different populations and cost concepts. ACS median gross rent comes from occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is a current typical asking-rent index blended across rental types. A difference between them can reflect survey timing, occupancy, utility inclusion, and the difference between asking rents and rents paid by current tenants.","q":"Why does the ACS gross-rent figure exceed the current Zillow asking-rent index?"},{"a":"No. The history shows a slight negative same-month change over the latest year alongside positive annualized changes over the longer three- and five-year windows. The recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than erases, the longer positive path. Historical coverage, variability, and drawdown describe backward-looking measurement behavior only; they do not provide a forecast of future asking rents.","q":"Does the recent rent decline erase the longer-term rent history?"},{"a":"It converts annualized current ZORI into the income level at which rent would equal 30% of gross income. It is a transparent arithmetic screen, not a recommendation, underwriting conclusion, applicant qualification rule, or proof that any household can afford a particular home. Actual household affordability depends on income, utilities, debt, household size, lease terms, and the specific unit’s price.","q":"What does the 30% required-income calculation mean?"},{"a":"It can be used only as a cross-source comparison of annualized ZIP ZORI against the direct ZIP median sold price. It is not a cap rate, net return, property yield, or expected return because it excludes operating expenses, taxes, insurance, maintenance, financing, vacancy experience, purchase costs, and the mismatch between a blended rent index and the home represented by a median sale price.","q":"How should the ZIP rent-to-price screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year 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