ZIP 76706 enters June 2026 with a Zillow ZIP-level ZORI of $1,439, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, after a 1.16% year-over-year decline. For wider context only, Zillow’s city scope for Waco is $1,369, its county scope for McLennan County is $1,433, and its metro scope for Waco, TX is $1,430. The ZIP index therefore sits modestly above each broader asking-rent context, while the matched ACS median gross rent is $1,149. ZIP 76706 is both Zillow’s market identifier and the matching Census ZCTA label; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The affordability tension is sharper when the asking index is set against the ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year household-income and renter-burden evidence. Median household income is $41,656, while paying the current $1,439 monthly asking-rent index at a 30% rent-to-income threshold requires $57,560 annually. That produces a 41.5% asking-rent-to-median-income screen, rather than a finding about any household’s actual lease payment. ACS also reports 5,622 of 9,093 renter households spending at least 30% of income on rent, or 61.8%. Those ACS measures are survey estimates for occupied renter homes, with reported margins of error, and median gross rent includes selected utilities. The 30% required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule.
Recent rent direction breaks from the longer historical path rather than confirming it. Same-month Zillow ZORI history shows a 1.16% annual decline over one year and a 0.13% annual decline over three years, but a 4.03% annual gain over five years. The supplied history classifies the ZIP as high variability. Monthly rent changes have shown 3.80% annualized variability, so one current ZORI reading deserves less confidence as a stable representation of near-term conditions than a smoother series would warrant. Its maximum drawdown was 4.58%, documenting a meaningful historical pullback from a prior high. Coverage is complete across 114 observations. Transparent national discovery ranks are 2,625 for momentum, 2,487 for stability, and 2,804 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The bedroom ladder is useful for sizing the ZIP-wide index, but it does not create observed bedroom-rent comps. Modelled monthly ZIP estimates are $992 for a studio, $1,097 for one bedroom, $1,439 for two bedrooms, $2,001 for three bedrooms, and $2,414 for four bedrooms. They scale the overall ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder; each is a modelled estimate, never a measured bedroom rent. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $973, making the ZIP ZORI 147.9% of that administrative standard. HUD FMR/SAFMR is bedroom-specific and administratively defined, not asking rent, so neither it nor the modelled ladder establishes what an available unit in a given bedroom category is actually being offered for.
The matched ACS ZCTA housing inventory provides structural context rather than a listing-level availability signal. It contains 17,106 housing units, of which 2,199 are vacant, yielding a 12.9% overall vacancy rate. Renter occupancy exceeds owner occupancy in this ZCTA, and the stock includes 8,005 single-family units alongside 3,147 units in large multifamily structures. That mix helps describe the universe underlying the area’s housing counts, but it does not identify rental quality, lease terms, asking prices, or the location of available units. Likewise, total vacancy cannot prove that a particular unit is vacant for rent, and the area’s rent-burden result cannot prove the financial circumstances of a particular renter.
The direct ZIP resale observation supplies a separate, potentially cautionary market signal. In Redfin’s rolling three-month ZIP resale window, the median sold price was $252,443, down 7.19% year over year; 100 homes sold and median marketing time was 50 days. Inventory was 191 homes and months of supply reached 5.8. Sale-to-list evidence remained below asking: the average sale-to-list ratio was 96.9%, and 8.26% of sales closed above list. These are for-sale and resale observations, not rental transactions or rental comps. Their cooling signals broadly confirm the recent rent decline and historical drawdown, while the rent-to-income screen remains comparatively strained. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 6.84%, but that is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
Source differences set firm limits on any combined reading. Zillow ZORI follows observed asking-rent conditions across a blended rental mix; ACS describes occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities in gross rent; HUD provides an administrative standard; and Redfin observes ZIP resale activity. The city, county, and metro figures are wider-context benchmarks, not substitutes for a ZIP measure. The historical ZORI series is useful for documenting prior movement and variability, but it cannot establish future rents. Similarly, the resale price and supply figures can describe sales-market liquidity and pricing signals, yet they cannot be translated into a property’s operating expenses, tenant demand, or realized rental income.
A property-level review would need evidence the aggregate datasets cannot supply: the advertised rent for the actual bedroom count, lease duration, which utilities are included or billed separately, fees, concessions, availability status, condition, and the timing of the listing. For a prospective sale comparison, the specific property’s transaction status, list changes, sale terms, and physical characteristics would also need separate verification. The ZORI-to-price screen should remain a broad comparison only because its numerator and denominator come from different source universes and may reflect different property mixes. The unresolved question is therefore not whether the ZIP statistics describe every unit, but whether the particular unit’s current terms and characteristics align with the relevant evidence universe.
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP Zillow asking-rent index is above the supplied Waco city, McLennan County, and Waco metro context values. However, the latest year-over-year ZORI movement is negative, and the three-year same-month result is also slightly negative. This creates a contrast between the ZIP’s current relative asking-rent level and its recent weakening direction.","title":"Asking rent is above broader context while recent momentum is negative"},{"body":"Five-year same-month ZORI growth was positive, unlike the one-year and three-year readings. The historical series also carries a high-variability classification, measurable monthly-return variation, and a prior drawdown. Complete observation coverage supports the descriptive history, but the mixed horizons mean a single current asking-rent snapshot should be interpreted cautiously rather than treated as a stable trend.","title":"Longer history remains positive but does not erase recent instability"},{"body":"The arithmetic income needed to keep the current ZIP asking-rent index at the stated threshold exceeds the ZCTA median household income. ACS also shows that a majority of renter households report rent burdens at or above that threshold. These are area-level screens from separate measurement frameworks, not proof of affordability, hardship, or lease terms for any individual household.","title":"Income and burden evidence point to a meaningful affordability screen"},{"body":"The direct rolling resale window shows a lower median sale price year over year, extended marketing time, substantial supply, and an average sale-to-list ratio below list price. Those conditions align with the recent rent cooling signal, but Redfin data describe home sales rather than rentals. The annualized rent-to-price calculation is therefore only a cross-source screening ratio, not a property-level return measure.","title":"Resale evidence signals slower for-sale conditions, not rental economics"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so its ZIP-level movement may not match the advertised rent, concessions, utilities, or lease structure of a specific available unit.","ACS ZCTA results are five-year survey estimates for occupied homes and carry sampling uncertainty; the ZCTA boundary is statistical and may not match a USPS delivery ZIP or a renter’s actual market search area.","The bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZORI with a HUD ladder, while HUD standards are administrative benchmarks rather than asking rents. Neither source establishes measured rents for a specific bedroom count.","Redfin resale indicators describe homes that sold or were listed in the rolling sales window. They cannot establish rental cash flow, operating costs, tenant demand, or the economics of a particular property."],"qa":[{"a":"It is Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not a median lease payment, an ACS gross-rent measure, or a direct quote for a particular unit. Its value is most useful as a broad current asking-rent signal within the stated ZIP market identifier.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure measure?"},{"a":"The bedroom values begin with the overall ZIP ZORI and scale it using the local HUD bedroom ladder. That construction makes them useful for consistent sizing across bedroom categories, but they are not measured rents from individual listings or executed leases. Actual advertised rents can differ because of property mix, utilities, condition, timing, and lease terms.","q":"Why are the bedroom rent figures labelled modelled estimates?"},{"a":"No. The calculation simply divides annualized asking rent by the stated income-share threshold to produce an arithmetic comparison. It does not account for household size, other debts, savings, subsidies, credit standards, lease terms, or landlord screening. It is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule.","q":"Does the 30% required-income calculation determine whether someone qualifies for a rental?"},{"a":"No. The ratio divides annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s ZIP median sold price, combining two different source universes and likely different property mixes. It excludes operating expenses, taxes, insurance, financing, vacancy, maintenance, concessions, and actual lease income. It is only a broad screening comparison and not a cap rate, net return, or expected return.","q":"Can the annualized rent-to-sale-price ratio be treated as a property yield?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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