The central measured tension is that the current asking-rent screen looks less demanding than the ZIP’s median household income, while the renter burden record remains substantial. The June asking-rent index for 77035 is $1,264 per month, up 3.03% from the same month a year earlier. At a 30% income share, that rent mathematically corresponds to $50,560 of annual income, below the ACS median household income of $58,686. Yet 4,611 of 8,629 renter households, or 53.4%, report spending at least that share of income on rent. This is an arithmetic affordability screen, not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence that a particular household can afford a particular home.
That current improvement follows a positive but uneven backward-looking rent path. The one-year exact same-month annualized change is 3.03%, the three-year measure is 2.04%, and the five-year measure is 4.32%. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer positive path, but the latest one-year pace remains below the five-year pace rather than extending it. The history has 61 observations, 60 consecutive monthly returns, and 100% stated coverage. Annualized monthly-return variability is estimated at 3.21%, which supports moderate confidence in a current rent snapshot but not an assumption of a smooth series. Separately, the maximum observed drawdown was 2.50%, showing that the index has experienced declines. The transparent national discovery ranks are 1,211 for momentum, 1,926 for stability, and 1,617 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs; they describe past measurements, not a forecast or investment view.
Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a measured rent for a specified bedroom count. The local HUD ladder scales that index into modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,030 for a studio, $1,067 for one bedroom, $1,264 for two bedrooms, $1,704 for three bedrooms, and $2,116 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The modelled two-bedroom estimate is 6.4% below the local HUD two-bedroom standard of $1,350. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so the HUD ladder is useful for the scaling method but does not establish what any available unit is advertised for.
The five-digit 77035 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a match to a Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the matched ACS five-year survey, median gross rent is $1,179 with a $30 margin of error, and gross rent includes selected utilities. The asking-rent index is therefore 7.2% above that survey median, a difference consistent with their different populations and definitions rather than a direct contradiction. The ZCTA contains 15,960 housing units and has a 9.2% vacancy rate. Its stock includes 7,589 single-family units and 3,201 units in large multifamily structures. Those figures describe area-level stock and vacancy; they do not prove availability, condition, utility treatment, or lease terms for any individual rental.
Wider benchmarks point in the same direction on current rent level, but they remain context rather than substitutes for ZIP evidence: the Houston city context rent is $1,567, the Harris County context rent is $1,600, and the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land metro context rent is $1,648. Each is above the ZIP asking-rent index, indicating that this ZIP’s current index sits below these broader geographic contexts. The comparison should not be read as a neighborhood-quality ranking or as proof that comparable homes carry the same rent. City, county, and metro measures aggregate different housing mixes and geographies, whereas the asking-rent and history readings here are assigned to the ZIP market identifier.
Redfin supplies a separate for-sale lens, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Its direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a median sold price of $299,932, up 1.67% year over year, with 73 homes sold and a median 43 days on market. Inventory stands at 125 homes and months of supply at 5.2. Sale-to-list evidence is softer than a uniformly tight resale picture: the average sale-to-list ratio is 96.05%, while 14.1% of sales closed above list. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 5.06%, a cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Positive resale pricing and positive rent history align directionally, but the supply and below-list sale signals challenge any simple claim that either market is uniformly tight.
Several limits should frame the evidence. ZORI measures typical asking rents, while ACS describes occupied renter homes over a survey period and HUD supplies administrative standards; none is interchangeable with a signed lease for a specified dwelling. The burden share is an area-level survey measure and does not identify a household’s income, housing assistance, utilities, bedroom need, or actual lease payment. Likewise, the history series is complete according to the stated coverage but remains a record of prior observations, not a prediction. Redfin’s resale measures concern sold homes and marketing conditions in the ZIP’s for-sale market, so they cannot demonstrate rental demand, property operating costs, or outcomes for a rental unit.
Concrete property-level checks would need to establish the advertised rent, bedroom count, lease term, utility responsibility, concessions, availability date, and whether the dwelling’s physical characteristics match the broad rental type represented by ZORI. A resale-oriented review would separately need the actual transaction record, listing history, list price, condition, and the distinction between active inventory and sold homes. The local HUD ladder can organize bedroom comparisons, but it should not replace those unit facts. The most decision-relevant unresolved question is whether a specific available unit’s all-in lease cost and attributes resemble the ZIP-level asking-rent snapshot or differ materially from it.
","findings":[{"body":"The one-year, three-year, and five-year rent-history measures are all positive, so the current ZORI reading is consistent with a longer upward path. However, the one-year pace is slower than the five-year pace, and the series has recorded both measurable variability and a prior drawdown. The current asking-rent figure is informative, but it should be treated as a snapshot with a modestly uneven historical path behind it.","title":"Positive rent direction, but not a straight line"},{"body":"The 30% required-income calculation based on current ZIP asking rent falls below the area’s median household income, but more than half of renter households are burdened at that threshold in the ACS survey. This does not create a contradiction because the screen is arithmetic and the burden estimate reflects occupied renter households with varying incomes, rents, household sizes, utilities, and lease circumstances. It does show that median-income comparisons alone are incomplete.","title":"Income screen and renter burden point in different directions"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are not observed bedroom-specific asking rents. HUD’s FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard, not a market asking-rent series, while ZORI is blended across rental types. The ladder is therefore useful for structured comparison, but a specific unit’s advertised rent, utilities, and features remain necessary to validate any bedroom-level inference.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled from an administrative ladder"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale record shows year-over-year appreciation in median sold price, which broadly aligns with positive asking-rent history. At the same time, months of supply, below-list average sale outcomes, and the limited share sold above list do not support a simple uniformly tight-market interpretation. The rent-to-price figure is only annualized ZORI divided by median sold price, making it a cross-source screen rather than a measure of property economics or investment performance.","title":"Resale evidence qualifies the rent signal"}],"risks":["The current ZORI figure is a blended asking-rent index, so it may not match the bedroom count, utility treatment, concessions, condition, lease term, or availability of a specific advertised unit.","ACS gross rent and renter burden describe occupied households in a five-year survey and include selected utilities, creating a different evidence universe from current asking rents and unit-level lease costs.","The HUD bedroom ladder is an administrative standard used to model bedroom estimates; it cannot verify that a particular studio, apartment, or house is available at the resulting estimate.","Redfin’s resale data cover sold homes and for-sale marketing conditions, so positive sold-price change or inventory signals cannot establish rental demand, rental operating costs, or a property-specific financial outcome."],"qa":[{"a":"The required-income screen simply annualizes current ZIP ZORI and divides by 30%, then compares that arithmetic result with median household income. The ACS burden result instead summarizes occupied renter households, whose incomes, actual rents, utility obligations, household composition, and housing circumstances vary. Neither figure determines whether an individual applicant or unit is affordable.","q":"Why does the required-income screen look more favorable than the renter-burden result?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled estimates that scale the overall ZIP asking-rent index using the local HUD bedroom ladder. Zillow ZORI itself is blended across rental types, and HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than asking rent. A unit-specific listing is needed to establish an actual bedroom rent and all-in lease cost.","q":"Are the bedroom rent estimates observed market rents?"},{"a":"The history is complete under the stated coverage measure and shows positive one-year, three-year, and five-year same-month changes. Its variability and maximum drawdown indicate that rents have not moved in a perfectly steady path. The current reading can therefore be used as a recent market indicator, but not as a forecast or a guarantee of continued movement.","q":"What does the rent history say about confidence in the current asking-rent reading?"},{"a":"It is the annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price in the direct ZIP resale observation. Because it combines an asking-rent index with a resale statistic, it is only a cross-source screening ratio. It excludes property expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy experience, concessions, and unit-specific rent, so it is not a cap rate or return measure.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-to-price screening ratio be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1022.580005},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1039.788897},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1054.049259},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1089.436888},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1085.099652},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1092.84459},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1092.772287},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1087.533404},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1109.044729},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1116.008808},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1148.883049},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1143.73283},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1163.161653},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1177.48492},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1182.4702},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1162.100145},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1156.653784},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1152.910926},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1167.287734},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1178.092433},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1191.175362},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1191.010359},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1189.400311},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1193.952117},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1189.339338},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1174.293471},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1178.819941},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1186.607065},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1204.516347},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1210.384708},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1207.760161},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1207.05223},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1212.114633},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1224.811437},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1229.549864},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1228.178739},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1221.006391},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1224.387932},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1229.634553},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1228.486801},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1230.924705},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1214.324274},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1227.501951},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1225.904397},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1236.867613},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1237.928488},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1226.592331},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1225.792648},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1226.502235},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1232.610469},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1229.677868},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1234.423981},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1229.969164},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1244.872295},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1237.960178},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1242.625805},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1234.242021},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1233.354882},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1245.51875},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1253.018492},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1263.626852}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":61,"firstPeriod":"2021-06-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":61,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1226.502235,"endRent":1263.626852,"change":0.030268690867897297,"cagr":0.030268690867897297},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1189.339338,"endRent":1263.626852,"change":0.062461159423955914,"cagr":0.020401341301518272},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1022.580005,"endRent":1263.626852,"change":0.23572419353143914,"cagr":0.04324019084530506}},"maxDrawdown":-0.024997901849873272,"annualizedVolatility":0.03212629718433304,"consecutiveReturnCount":60}}