ZIP 77040 presents a measured rent-path tension: the current Zillow ZORI is $1,382, while the exact same-month one-year rent-history change is only 0.4% but the five-year measure is 3.7% annualized. The immediate asking-rent reading therefore looks nearly flat relative to the longer record, rather than a continuation of its earlier pace. A 30% required-income screen converts the index to $55,280 annually, below the $65,028 local median household income; the asking-rent-to-income comparison is 25.5%. That screen is arithmetic only, not affordability advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence that any particular renter can secure a unit at this rent.
The three-year exact same-month annualized rent-history change is 0.5%, reinforcing the one-year slowdown and breaking from the stronger five-year path. The backward-looking history has 88 monthly observations with complete supplied coverage. At 3.2%, annualized monthly-return variability indicates that the ZIP index has moved enough over time that one current asking-rent snapshot merits moderate rather than absolute confidence. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown was 3.9%, documenting a limited but real decline from a prior index peak. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,251 for momentum, 1,907 for stability, and 2,466 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks higher. These are descriptive historical measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder produces estimates of $1,120 for a studio, $1,165 for one bedroom, $1,382 for two bedrooms, $1,861 for three bedrooms, and $2,321 for four bedrooms. HUD’s two-bedroom standard is $1,530, placing the current ZIP asking-rent index at 90.3% of that benchmark. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, while Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The ladder helps normalize bedroom relationships but does not observe the rent of a particular unit.
The shared $1,382 figure should not be treated as source confirmation. Zillow measures ZIP-level asking-rent conditions, whereas the matched Census ZCTA reports a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and median gross rent includes selected utilities. The Census geography has 50,977 residents with a population margin of error of 3,680, and its median gross-rent estimate has a $38 margin of error. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Renters occupy 49.5% of occupied homes, while 4,914 renter households, or 54.9%, report spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. That burden measure cannot establish the expense or financial position of a particular household or unit.
Housing counts show a relatively occupied stock but do not identify current unit-level availability. The ACS ZCTA contains 19,164 housing units, of which 18,093 are occupied and 1,071 are vacant, for a 5.6% vacancy rate. Of the vacant stock, 597 units are classified as for rent; that classification is not proof that a specific property is available, comparable, or offered at the ZORI level. Structure counts include 10,897 single-family units and 2,335 units in large multifamily buildings, showing that the housing base spans more than one structure type. These stock and vacancy figures are survey-area context, not a live listing inventory or a measure of landlord concessions.
For wider context only, Houston city context has a $1,567 rent benchmark and a 10.6% vacancy rate; Harris County context has a $1,600 rent benchmark and an 8.4% vacancy rate; and the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX metro context has a $1,648 rent benchmark alongside median household income of $82,168. The ZIP’s $1,382 Zillow asking-rent index is below each named wider-area rent benchmark, while its ZCTA vacancy rate is also lower than the city and county context rates. These city, county, and metro values describe broader geographies, not ZIP comparables, and they cannot be blended with the ZIP index, the ZCTA survey, or the HUD administrative standard to create a single rent estimate.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation supplies a separate for-sale lens. The median sold price was $273,688, up 0.4% year over year, with 76 homes sold and a median 35 days on market. Inventory stood at 109 homes and months of supply were 4.3. Sale-to-list evidence was restrained: the average sale-to-list ratio was 97.6%, and 14.9% of homes sold above list. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 6.1% cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Flat resale pricing and below-list sale signals broadly align with the rent-history deceleration, while the ZIP’s lower asking-rent level alone does not establish property economics.
The evidence has important limits. ZORI does not reveal included utilities, concessions, lease length, property condition, square footage, or the precise bedroom mix behind a listed home. ACS estimates describe surveyed occupied households, HUD standards serve program administration, and Redfin records resale activity rather than rental transactions. A property-level review would need current comparable asking rents by bedroom, confirmation of utilities and concessions, the applicable HUD bedroom standard, unit condition and size, and live resale or listing details where relevant. The central unresolved question is whether a target unit’s actual asking terms resemble the ZIP’s blended rent index, its modelled bedroom estimate, or neither.
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow ZORI is $1,382. Exact same-month history shows a 0.4% one-year annualized change and a 0.5% three-year annualized change, compared with 3.7% over five years. That pattern is a measured deceleration, not a projection. Historical variability and drawdown show that the current index should be interpreted as a useful benchmark rather than a fixed unit-level quote.","title":"Recent rent movement is much slower than the longer record"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the blended Zillow asking-rent index through the local HUD ladder. They are not observed asking rents for actual studio, one-bedroom, or larger units. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, so it is useful for relative sizing but should not be substituted for live rental listings.","title":"Bedroom rents are modelled from the HUD ladder"},{"body":"The 30% required-income calculation places the ZIP asking-rent benchmark below local median household income, but ACS reports that 54.9% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on gross rent. Gross rent includes selected utilities and applies to occupied surveyed homes. The contrast shows why a median-income screen cannot describe the budget position of all renter households.","title":"Survey burden is substantial despite the income screen"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale data show modest sold-price change, marketing time measured in weeks, supply above four months, and an average sale below list price. Those are for-sale observations, not rent transactions or property-level operating data. The annualized ZORI-to-sold-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio and should remain separate from any property-specific financial analysis.","title":"Resale conditions appear restrained rather than overheated"}],"risks":["The blended Zillow asking-rent index can differ materially from a target unit because bedroom count, utility treatment, concessions, lease terms, size, condition, and property type are not identified in the ZIP benchmark.","ACS gross-rent and rent-burden estimates describe surveyed occupied renter households in a statistical ZCTA over five years, so they cannot validate a current asking rent or establish an individual household’s circumstances.","Vacant-for-rent counts and the overall vacancy rate do not demonstrate that a comparable unit is available now, offered at the modelled rent, or subject to the same lease terms.","Redfin resale measures concern homes that sold or were listed in the direct ZIP for-sale market; they do not provide rental comparables, operating expenses, financing assumptions, or property-level return evidence."],"qa":[{"a":"It is Zillow ZORI, a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types. It is not a lease-specific quote, a measure of occupied-home rent, or proof of the asking terms for any individual property. Unit amenities, utility inclusion, bedroom mix, and concessions can produce meaningful differences.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure represent?"},{"a":"Zillow measures current asking-rent conditions in its ZIP market index, while ACS reports a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes in the matched Census ZCTA. ACS gross rent includes selected utilities. A ZCTA is a statistical area rather than the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP, so equal values do not make the measures interchangeable.","q":"Why can Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent match numerically but mean different things?"},{"a":"They should be read as modelled estimates generated by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP ZORI level. They can frame relative differences among bedroom sizes, but they are not measured bedroom rents. Current listing evidence remains necessary to assess any actual studio, one-bedroom, or larger unit.","q":"How should the bedroom estimates be used?"},{"a":"Redfin adds a separate direct ZIP resale view covering sold prices, transaction volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes over a rolling three-month period. It does not measure rental transactions. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price creates only a cross-source screening ratio, not a property return measure.","q":"What does the Redfin evidence add to the rental analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1056.856632},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1056.420653},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1068.138416},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1070.774188},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1069.437413},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1070.709987},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1073.226382},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1080.538838},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1079.885061},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1072.4639},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1071.701097},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1064.180953},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1087.299156},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1079.85193},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1085.030158},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1077.728853},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1097.588949},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1108.477425},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1116.376142},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1119.224771},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1123.059185},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1115.988964},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1110.099316},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1111.351859},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1110.951891},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1117.45078},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1126.607271},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1150.466299},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1167.333233},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1169.282266},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1174.581708},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1173.762024},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1192.351959},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1225.079989},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1274.80254},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1300.612077},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1320.38063},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1324.490544},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1339.045147},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1332.403004},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1323.293907},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1330.519596},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1336.074605},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1352.946341},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1345.722118},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1338.303055},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1321.153182},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1319.786451},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1328.370263},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1339.602476},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1348.92855},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1359.97761},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1365.585571},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1371.567633},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1375.29666},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1375.234523},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1389.613601},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1381.188229},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1378.460053},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1359.237286},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1358.096812},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1369.87455},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1372.13726},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1384.985474},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1386.53117},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1383.692607},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1378.41597},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1367.589584},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1385.790184},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1395.975202},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1412.085665},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1415.195967},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1409.073596},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1408.113033},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1384.207481},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1376.130387},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1375.947967},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1376.029651},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1379.21112},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1386.191185},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1368.434666},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1366.802467},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1359.516071},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1366.909403},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1371.019774},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1365.528002},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1381.558933},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1381.948765}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":88,"firstPeriod":"2019-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":88,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1376.130387,"endRent":1381.948765,"change":0.00422807174012374,"cagr":0.00422807174012374},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1359.97761,"endRent":1381.948765,"change":0.016155527001654235,"cagr":0.005356433064236166},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1150.466299,"endRent":1381.948765,"change":0.20120751577095963,"cagr":0.03734593197936764}},"maxDrawdown":-0.039344300929597065,"annualizedVolatility":0.03191565087611984,"consecutiveReturnCount":87}}