At 77042, Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP asking-rent index stands at $1,344 per month, a typical observed asking-rent measure blended across rental types. It is down 1.7% from the same month a year earlier. The Houston city context is $1,567, the Harris County county context is $1,600, and the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX metro context is $1,648; each is wider-area context rather than a ZIP substitute. The ZIP’s lower current index relative to all three comparison scopes establishes the immediate tension: local asking-rent conditions are cooler than the broader context, while the local for-sale evidence tells a different story.
The rent history supports the cooling classification but does not describe a uniform long-run decline. Exact same-month change was negative 1.7% over one year, essentially flat at negative 0.01% annualized over three years, and positive 2.57% annualized over five years. The record contains 121 monthly observations and 120 consecutive monthly returns with 100% coverage. Monthly rent movement produced 3.33% annualized variability, so a single current index should be read with some caution rather than as a perfectly fixed market price. The maximum drawdown was 5.70%, showing that historical reversals have been meaningful even though the five-year path remained positive. Transparent national discovery ranks were 2,668 for momentum, 2,069 for stability, and 2,742 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Recent direction breaks from the longer positive path and confirms the flatter three-year pattern.
The close relationship between current asking rent and survey rent does not make the two sources interchangeable. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,346, with a stated $37 margin of error. That measure is a survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; Zillow measures a typical observed asking-rent index. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. HUD’s FY2026 local two-bedroom standard is $1,670, making the ZIP asking-rent index 80.5% of that administrative standard. HUD FMR or SAFMR values are bedroom-specific program standards, not asking rents or direct market comparables.
A bedroom view is available only as a model, not as a set of measured ZIP rents. Scaling the overall ZIP index with the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,095 for a studio, $1,127 for one bedroom, $1,344 for two bedrooms, $1,811 for three bedrooms, and $2,253 for four bedrooms. The ladder preserves the local HUD relative bedroom schedule while anchoring it to Zillow’s ZIP-wide index. It should not be read as evidence that a sampled studio, one-bedroom, or larger unit leased at those exact amounts. Unit type, condition, included utilities, lease structure, and concessions can all cause a listing to differ from these modelled estimates.
The income screen is similarly a calculation rather than an affordability recommendation or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $59,097, with a $4,060 margin of error. Applying the 30% screen to the current asking-rent index yields required annual income of $53,760; the asking-rent-to-broad-household-income comparison is 27.3%. That comparison is not renter-household income and does not determine what any household can pay. Separate ACS renter evidence is more strained: 51.9% of renter households reported gross rent at or above that threshold. Because gross rent includes selected utilities and the result summarizes surveyed occupied homes, the burden figure cannot prove the cost pressure, utility treatment, or lease outcome for a particular available unit.
The matched ZCTA has 21,410 housing units, an all-unit vacancy rate of 15.4%, and renters account for 73.7% of occupied units. Its structure mix includes 8,061 units in large multifamily buildings and 4,601 single-family units, indicating that the ZIP-wide index and survey figures span materially different housing forms. The vacancy rate measures unoccupied housing across the stock, not simply advertised apartments, and it should not be translated into a claim that any particular property has vacant units or negotiating room. Compared with the lower ZIP asking-rent index, the renter-heavy occupied base and elevated renter burden make unit-level rent terms and utility inclusions more consequential than the headline index alone.
Redfin supplies a separate direct rolling three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions. Its median sold price was $600,247, up 9.14% year over year; 86 homes sold with a median 17 days on market. Reported inventory was 130 homes and months of supply was 4.6. Sale-to-list evidence showed an average sale-to-list ratio of 98.13%, while 30.98% of sales closed above list and 40.85% went off market within two weeks. These resale signals show active for-sale turnover and price appreciation while ZIP asking rent was declining over one year, challenging any assumption that rent direction and resale direction must align. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is 2.69%, but this is only a cross-source screening ratio; it cannot represent property economics or a return measure.
The evidence is strongest for identifying the current tension, not for explaining it or projecting an outcome. Zillow is a ZIP-level blended asking-rent index; ACS is a multi-year ZCTA survey of occupied homes; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin is a rolling ZIP resale observation. None identifies a building’s actual lease, operating costs, physical condition, financing, or utility bills. Useful property-level checks would reconcile the advertised rent with bedroom count, unit type, lease term, concessions, included utilities, recent availability, and the date and condition of any cited sale. The decision question is whether those unit-specific facts remain consistent with a cooling ZIP rent index, substantial renter burden, broad stock vacancy, and a resale market whose price signal is moving differently.
","findings":[{"body":"The June 2026 Zillow ZIP asking-rent index was $1,344 and declined 1.7% over the prior year. It sat below the Houston city, Harris County, and Houston metro context rents. History was nearly flat over three years but positive over five years, so the current decline is a break from the longer backward-looking path rather than proof of a durable future trend.","title":"Cooling rent direction contrasts with broader rent context"},{"body":"The Zillow asking-rent index and ACS median gross rent are numerically close, but they measure different populations and cost concepts. Zillow is a blended asking-rent index across rental types. ACS summarizes occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities. HUD’s bedroom standards are administrative benchmarks, so the HUD-scaled bedroom figures are modelled estimates rather than observed bedroom rents.","title":"Similar rent levels arise from different evidence universes"},{"body":"The current ZIP index is below the arithmetic income threshold implied by the ZCTA median household income under the 30% screen. However, ACS reports that a majority of renter households had gross rent at or above that threshold. This difference matters because broad household income is not renter-household income, and burden data are survey summaries rather than evidence about a particular listing or tenant.","title":"Broad income screen is less strained than renter burden evidence"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation showed a higher median sold price year over year, quick marketing time, and sale-to-list signals near but generally below list price. Those for-sale results coexist with a one-year decline in the asking-rent index. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price calculation is useful only as a cross-source screening ratio and cannot establish property-level economics, costs, or returns.","title":"Resale strength creates a cross-market tension"}],"risks":["Zillow’s index is a typical observed asking-rent measure blended across rental types, so it can differ from a specific building, lease term, unit size, concession package, or utility treatment.","ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey of occupied renter homes, not a current listing sample, and the ZCTA statistical boundary is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.","HUD bedroom standards are administrative program benchmarks rather than market asking rents, so the bedroom ladder should not be treated as measured rents for available units.","Redfin’s rolling three-month ZIP resale observation concerns for-sale transactions only; it does not supply rental comparables, operating expenses, financing terms, condition adjustments, or evidence of any property’s economics."],"qa":[{"a":"They answer different questions. Zillow reports a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS reports a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Their numerical proximity is informative, but it does not convert either source into a substitute for the other or for a specific lease quote.","q":"Why are Zillow asking rent and ACS gross rent both included if they are close?"},{"a":"They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall Zillow index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They preserve a relative bedroom schedule but are not measured studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom, three-bedroom, or four-bedroom asking rents. Actual unit pricing may differ because the ZIP index spans rental types and listings have different terms and features.","q":"What do the bedroom estimates represent?"},{"a":"No. The calculation simply annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index and applies a 30% arithmetic screen. It is not financial advice, a household budget, or an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA median household income is broad household context, while ACS renter burden is a separate survey measure of occupied renter homes.","q":"Does the required-income calculation determine whether a household can qualify?"},{"a":"The Redfin figures describe a direct rolling three-month ZIP for-sale market, including sold prices, sales activity, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. They are not rental transactions. Their stronger price direction alongside cooler asking rent identifies a cross-market tension, but the packet does not establish why the measures differ or what will happen next.","q":"How should the resale data be read alongside the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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