The central measured tension in 77064 is that the $1,450 monthly ZIP asking-rent index produces a $58,000 annual income figure under a 30% arithmetic screen, below the matched area’s $81,658 median household income, yet 53.2% of ACS renter households report gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. The screen simply annualizes the current index and divides by 30%; it is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Likewise, the burden statistic is a survey result for renter households, not proof that any particular available unit is unaffordable. Together, these measures suggest that areawide household-income and renter-budget signals should not be treated as interchangeable.
Zillow ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, recorded a 1.8% year-over-year increase in June 2026. For wider context only, Houston city context rent was $1,567, Harris County context rent was $1,600, and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX metro context rent was $1,648; none substitutes for the ZIP-level index. A separate source universe, the ACS 2024 five-year survey, puts matched-ZCTA median gross rent at $1,532, including selected utilities, making the ZIP asking index 5.4% lower. The five-digit 77064 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
Looking backward rather than forward, the exact same-month one-year rent-history change was 1.8%, the three-year change was 0.8% annualized, and the five-year change was 2.6% annualized. Recent direction is positive, but it does not confirm the faster longer five-year path; the intermediate three-year reading is notably softer. Annualized monthly-return variability of 3.2% indicates that a single current rent snapshot merits moderate caution rather than precision beyond the index’s scope. The worst observed peak-to-trough drawdown was 3.8%, a distinct measure showing that declines occurred even within the broader growth history. Coverage reached 98.5%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,818 for momentum, 1,916 for stability, and 2,172 for the balanced measure. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled rather than measured: scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces monthly estimates of $1,183 for a studio, $1,217 for one bedroom, $1,450 for two bedrooms, $1,950 for three bedrooms, and $2,433 for four bedrooms. This ladder preserves the ZIP index level while applying local bedroom relationships; it does not observe advertised rents for each bedroom count. HUD’s FY2026 standards are administrative bedroom-specific FMR or SAFMR benchmarks, not asking rents. For reference, the local HUD two-bedroom standard is $1,740 and the four-bedroom standard is $2,920. The modelled two-bedroom estimate is 16.7% below its HUD counterpart, a comparison of two different constructs rather than evidence of a bargain or a transaction price.
The matched ACS ZCTA describes 17,245 housing units, of which 16,246 were occupied, yielding a 5.8% vacancy rate. Its stock is weighted toward 12,490 single-family units, while 1,522 units sit in large multifamily structures. Renters occupied 5,796 homes, representing 35.7% of occupied housing, and 601 vacant homes were classified as for rent. These counts frame availability and tenure composition, but vacancy cannot establish the condition, concessions, turnover timing, or actual availability of a specific unit. ACS is a five-year survey with stated sampling uncertainty, so these stock and burden measures should be read as area-level estimates alongside, rather than as replacements for, the current Zillow asking-rent index.
Redfin supplies direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence, a for-sale observation rather than rental transactions or rental comparables. Its median sold price was $289,934, up 4.2% year over year, across 92 homes sold. Median days on market were 44, while inventory rose 24.6% to 110 homes and months of supply stood at 3.6. The average sale-to-list ratio was 97.7%, and 14.6% of sold homes closed above list price. This resale record presents a tension with the rent history: sold prices advanced faster than the current asking-rent index, yet rising inventory and below-list average execution do not indicate uniformly tight resale conditions. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 6.0% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
The wider comparisons make the ZIP’s lower current asking-rent index relative to the named city, county, and metro context rents easy to see, but they do not settle affordability. The ZIP income statistic covers all households, whereas the burden measure applies to renter households, and ACS gross rent includes selected utilities that Zillow’s blended asking-rent index does not necessarily capture. Similarly, HUD standards serve an administrative function and should not be read as market quotes. The more decision-relevant reading is therefore mixed: rent has risen modestly, the longer history contains both growth and drawdowns, modeled larger-bedroom costs step up sharply, and a substantial surveyed share of renters faces high gross-rent burden.
Important limits remain. ZORI is an index rather than a lease ledger, ACS is a retrospective five-year survey of occupied renter homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin records resale activity rather than rental economics. A property-level review needs the actual bedroom count, advertised rent, included and excluded utilities, lease term, deposits and fees, concessions, availability date, unit condition, and comparable current listings. For a purchase-oriented review, the sale record also needs the specific property’s list history, condition, taxes, insurance, financing assumptions, maintenance exposure, and rental terms before any property conclusion is drawn. The available evidence supports comparison and screening, not a determination about a particular home.
","findings":[{"body":"The arithmetic income screen based on current ZIP asking rent is below the area median household income, but the ACS matched-ZCTA survey reports that more than half of renter households carry gross-rent burdens of at least 30%. This is a meaningful tension, not a contradiction: all-household income, renter-household budgets, asking rent, and gross rent with selected utilities are different evidence universes.","title":"Area income and renter burden point in different directions"},{"body":"The one-year same-month gain exceeds the three-year annualized gain, while the five-year annualized result is stronger still. That pattern leaves current direction positive but less persuasive as confirmation of the full longer-run trajectory. Measured variability and drawdown history mean the latest ZIP rent index should be treated as a useful current benchmark, not as a fixed level.","title":"Rent history remains positive but has slowed versus the longer path"},{"body":"Studio-through-four-bedroom estimates were created by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for showing the relative cost step-up across bedroom counts, especially for larger units, but they are not measured listings, lease transactions, or unit-specific market quotes. HUD standards themselves are administrative benchmarks rather than asking rents.","title":"Bedroom figures are a HUD-scaled model, not observed rents"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation shows a year-over-year increase in median sold price, but also increased inventory, marketing time, an average sale-to-list ratio below 100%, and a limited above-list share. This challenges any simple claim of uniformly tight conditions. It also remains separate from rental evidence because resale records do not measure asking rents, leases, or operating costs.","title":"Resale prices rose while sale execution showed more balance"}],"risks":["The burden statistic is a matched-ZCTA ACS five-year survey estimate for occupied renter households. It cannot identify the budget position, utilities, lease terms, or affordability of a particular applicant or available unit.","Bedroom estimates are modelled from ZIP ZORI and the HUD ladder, so differences by bedroom count may not match current listings, unit quality, included utilities, concessions, or the actual composition of available stock.","Redfin resale metrics describe direct ZIP for-sale activity over a rolling three-month period. They are not rental transactions and cannot establish rents, property operating costs, financing outcomes, or specific-home economics.","The rent-history record is highly covered but still backward-looking. Its variability and maximum drawdown show that a current index reading can move, so it should not be treated as a forecast or guaranteed future rent level."],"qa":[{"a":"The income screen uses current ZIP asking rent and applies a 30% arithmetic threshold to derive an annual income figure. Median household income covers all households, while the ACS burden result applies to renter households and uses gross rent, which includes selected utilities. Those populations and rent concepts are not the same.","q":"Why can the income screen look easier than the renter-burden result?"},{"a":"The five-digit label serves as a Zillow ZIP market identifier and as the match point for Census ZCTA survey data. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area created to approximate ZIP geography. It is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so survey-based ACS measures and Zillow’s ZIP index retain separate geographic and methodological scopes.","q":"What does the ZCTA match mean for this report?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates that scale the ZIP-wide Zillow ZORI level according to the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are designed to show a consistent relative bedroom pattern. They should not be described as observed listings, signed leases, or measured bedroom-specific rents.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual observed rents for 77064?"},{"a":"It is annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price in the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation. The calculation can help compare two cross-source market signals at a high level. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or substitute for property-specific income and expense analysis.","q":"How should the Redfin screening ratio be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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