ZIP 77070’s latest Zillow ZORI is $1,470 per month, down 0.4% from a year earlier, making rent cooling the immediate signal rather than a rising asking-rent trend. This is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types, not a lease-specific quote. In the same context sentence, Houston city’s broader-context ZORI is $1,567, Harris County’s broader-context ZORI is $1,600, and the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land metro’s broader-context ZORI is $1,648. The ZIP is therefore below each named comparator, but those city, county, and metro readings are context rather than substitutes for ZIP evidence. The 77070 label also matches a Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The longer Zillow history complicates the current decline. Exact same-month change is -0.4% over one year, but +0.1% annualized over three years and +2.7% annualized over five years. Recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer positive path, though the three-year result already shows that growth had largely flattened. The series has 100% coverage across its available monthly history. Its annualized monthly-return variability is 2.7%, a measured degree of movement that limits confidence in treating a single current rent snapshot as precise. Separately, the maximum peak-to-trough drawdown was 4.9%, showing a meaningful prior retreat. Among history-eligible ZIPs, transparent national discovery ranks were 2,498 for momentum, 1,019 for stability, and 2,186 for balanced conditions; lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source definitions prevent a direct apples-to-apples reading of the rent figures. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,619, a survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. That figure is 9.2% higher than the current asking-rent index, which may reflect both source universe and timing rather than a contradiction. The FY2026 local HUD two-bedroom FMR is $1,820, or 19.2% above ZORI. HUD FMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent and not a measured market transaction price. ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD should therefore answer different questions rather than be merged into one rent estimate.
For a bedroom-oriented lens, the ZIP ZORI is scaled using the local HUD ladder to create modelled monthly estimates: $1,195 for a studio, $1,236 for one bedroom, $1,470 for two bedrooms, $1,979 for three bedrooms, and $2,463 for four bedrooms. These estimates preserve the local HUD bedroom relationship while anchoring the overall level to ZIP asking-rent evidence. They are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents, observed lease prices, or unit-specific comparable listings. A reader comparing a particular property should not assume that a listed unit will equal its modelled bedroom figure, especially where included utilities, lease terms, condition, availability, or concessions differ.
The arithmetic affordability screen is less strained than the burden evidence, creating another important tension. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, $1,470 per month implies required annual income of $58,800. That is below the ZCTA’s $77,397 median household income, and the current asking-rent index equals 22.8% of that annual median when annualized. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; the broad household median is also not a renter-income or household-specific measure. Meanwhile, 51.3% of renter households report spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. That burden statistic includes the ACS gross-rent universe and cannot prove affordability or burden for a particular unit.
Housing composition provides useful background without establishing current unit availability. The ZCTA-wide vacancy rate is 5.9%, while renter households account for 52.5% of occupied homes. The stock includes 12,792 single-family units and 5,918 units in larger multifamily structures, indicating that both broad structure categories matter to the rental base. These ACS measurements describe the matched statistical area and survey period, not a live count of rentable homes in the delivery ZIP. Likewise, an area vacancy rate does not demonstrate that a specific property is vacant, competitively priced, or available under a given lease term.
The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale record offers a separate for-sale-market signal. Median sold price was $314,929, up 0.8% year over year, with 94 homes sold and median marketing time of 25 days. Inventory was 143 homes and months of supply stood at 4.6. Average sale-to-list was 98.4%, 13.2% of sales closed above list, and 33.2% moved off market within the reported early period. These are ZIP resale observations, not rental transactions or property economics. The modest resale-price advance challenges any claim that soft asking rent alone proves broad housing-price weakness, while the rent decline and longer-term rent growth still describe a distinct rental index. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio, never a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
The central decision tension is thus a currently cooling asking-rent index set against longer positive rent history, substantial area-level renter burden, and a resale market showing modest price appreciation. None of those signals establishes the economics of an individual home or apartment. A property-level review should separately verify current bedroom-specific asking rents, effective concessions, included utilities, lease duration, occupancy status, listing dates, active resale alternatives, sale history, and whether reported market measures cover comparable properties. Readers should also preserve timing differences: Zillow describes asking rents, ACS describes surveyed occupied renter homes, HUD supplies an administrative standard, and Redfin describes completed ZIP resale activity. Those boundaries matter more than any single snapshot when interpreting 77070.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s ZIP asking-rent index is declining from the prior year even though the three-year history is nearly flat and the five-year path remains positive. Measured monthly-return variability and the prior drawdown mean the latest index should be treated as a current reading with uncertainty, not as a stable estimate of every available unit or a forecast.","title":"Current rent direction is weaker than the longer path"},{"body":"ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while HUD FMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The differences between their reported levels should not be interpreted as an error, a rent guarantee, or a direct leasing comparison.","title":"The rent sources answer different questions"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen based on the current asking-rent index sits below the area median household income, but more than half of renter households report gross-rent burdens at or above the stated threshold. The contrast warns against using a ZIP-level median income to infer what an applicant, renter household, or individual available unit can afford.","title":"Area affordability signals are mixed"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation shows a modest year-over-year increase in median sold price while asking rent cooled. Sales volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list measures all belong to the for-sale universe, not rental transactions. The divergence limits any attempt to infer property-level rental economics from resale movement alone.","title":"Resale evidence does not mirror the rent index"}],"risks":["The Zillow asking-rent index blends rental types and does not identify unit condition, included utilities, lease incentives, availability, or effective rent. A current property can therefore differ materially from the ZIP-level index.","ACS data apply to the matched Census ZCTA and are based on a multi-year survey of occupied renter homes. The ZCTA is statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and survey results do not describe live listings.","Bedroom figures are modelled by scaling the ZIP asking-rent index with the local HUD ladder. They are not observed bedroom rents, and they should not replace unit-specific listing comparisons or signed-lease evidence.","Redfin measures completed ZIP resale activity over its rolling observation period, not rental transactions. Median sold price and the rent-to-price screening ratio cannot establish a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return."],"qa":[{"a":"It represents Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index for the ZIP, blended across rental types. It is useful for tracking broad asking-rent direction, but it is not a signed lease price, a utility-inclusive household budget, or evidence that a particular listed unit will rent at that level.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure represent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the overall ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The method provides a consistent bedroom lens, but it does not observe bedroom-specific leases, concessions, unit quality, included utilities, or current availability.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures measured market rents?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply divides annualized asking rent by the stated income share to produce an arithmetic income benchmark. It is not lending, leasing, or qualification guidance, and the area median household income cannot establish the finances, household size, or rent burden of an individual renter.","q":"Does the income screen show that renting is affordable?"},{"a":"Use the resale record as direct evidence about the ZIP’s for-sale market only: sold prices, sales pace, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. It can test whether resale movement aligns with rent direction, but it cannot convert asking rents into property income, a cap rate, or an expected return.","q":"How should the resale data be used alongside rental data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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