Resale price movement and rent cooling create the core tension in this ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, stood at $1,382 per month, down 2.7% from the same month a year earlier. The five-digit label, 77077, is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the match for the Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That distinction matters before treating a rent index, survey profile, or sale record as an address-level observation. The current asking-rent signal is soft, whereas separate direct ZIP resale evidence provides a for-sale reading rather than a rental-transaction measure.
Same-month history establishes that the current decline is part of a cooling stretch, but not the whole longer record. ZORI’s exact same-month annualized change was -2.7% over 1 year, -1.0% over 3 years, and 1.7% over 5 years. Recent direction therefore confirms the shorter cooling path while breaking from the positive longer path. The history has 136 monthly observations and a 100% coverage ratio. Monthly changes had 2.7% annualized variability, a limited but nonzero dispersion that supports measured confidence, rather than complete confidence, in one current rent snapshot. Its maximum drawdown was a 5.1% peak-to-trough retreat. Transparent national discovery ranks were 2,819 for momentum, 1,129 for stability, and 2,509 for balanced performance among history-eligible ZIPs, with lower ranks stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Broader comparisons place the ZIP’s asking-rent level below surrounding context. Houston city context rent was $1,567, Harris County context rent was $1,600, and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX metro context rent was $1,648; all are wider-geography context rather than ZIP rental comps. The matched ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA reported median gross rent of $1,430, 3.4% above current ZORI. That is not a contradiction requiring a single reconciliation: ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI reflects typical observed asking rents at the ZIP level. Timing, occupancy, utility treatment, and rental universe all differ.
Bedroom detail has to remain modelled rather than observed. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces monthly modelled estimates of $1,123 for a studio, $1,159 for one bedroom, an index-aligned two-bedroom estimate, $1,857 for three bedrooms, and $2,318 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. By contrast, the packet’s HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,920 per month. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The modelled ladder and HUD standard can organize bedroom comparisons, but neither establishes an actual advertised rent, concession, or utility obligation for a specific property.
The affordability and burden evidence introduces another constraint on a simple rent-versus-income reading. The ACS ZCTA burden estimate places 55.5% of renter households at 30% or more of income devoted to gross rent, while area median household income was $72,871. Applying the current ZORI to that threshold produces a $55,280 annual required-income screen. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The burden measure concerns surveyed occupied renter homes and gross rent, whereas the screen starts with a current asking-rent index. Neither figure identifies the budget, utility costs, household composition, or lease outcome for a particular renter.
The ACS ZCTA housing profile shows a renter-weighted stock base alongside substantial measured vacancy. It estimates 33,004 housing units, a 15.7% vacancy rate, and a 62.6% renter share. The vacant-for-rent category contained 3,837 units in the survey profile. Structure counts include 12,078 single-family units and 9,299 large multifamily units, showing that the area’s housing inventory spans more than one building type. These are area-level survey categories, not a live listing feed. In particular, the vacancy statistic and vacant-for-rent count cannot prove that a particular home is available, competitively priced, or suitable for a given lease need.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation is mixed rather than a rental confirmation. Median sold price was $417,406, up 0.6% year over year; 167 homes sold and median marketing time was 35 days. Inventory stood at 201 homes with 3.7 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 96.8%, 13.0% of sales closed above list, and 32.2% went off market within two weeks. The modest sold-price increase challenges the rent-history cooling signal, while the below-list average and supply reading prevent a simple portrayal of uniformly strong resale conditions. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals 3.97%, but that is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a property-level cash-flow measure. These are for-sale observations, not rental transactions.
Each source operates on a different clock and universe: Zillow measures ZIP asking-rent conditions, ACS summarizes surveyed ZCTA households, HUD supplies an administrative standard, and Redfin reports ZIP resale activity. Property-level checks should therefore identify the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, utilities, recurring fees, concessions, lease term, listing date, and applicable geography assignment. For a sale comparison, verify the property’s actual closed price, list-price history, transaction timing, and current listing status rather than transferring ZIP medians to the address. None of the area measures establishes an individual unit’s rent, vacancy, affordability, or resale outcome. The unresolved question is which property-specific terms remain after these separate evidence universes are kept distinct.
","findings":[{"body":"The asking-rent index is $1,382 and its one-year decline is consistent with cooling. Exact same-month history also shows a negative three-year annualized change but a positive five-year change. Complete monthly coverage supports a continuous retrospective record, yet the recent downturn measures past asking-rent movement and does not estimate where rent will move next.","title":"Cooling history has a longer-run offset"},{"body":"Current ZORI is a ZIP asking-rent index, while the matched ACS ZCTA figure summarizes occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities. They are close numerically but answer different questions. The burden measure also belongs to the survey universe, so it cannot determine affordability or lease terms facing an applicant for a particular available home.","title":"Survey gross rent and asking rent answer different questions"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are a local-HUD-ladder scaling of ZIP ZORI. They establish a consistent modelled spread, with the index-aligned two-bedroom figure at the center, but are not measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, so comparing it with ZORI is a benchmark exercise rather than a lease-price comparison.","title":"Bedroom ladder is a modelled frame"},{"body":"Redfin reports direct ZIP for-sale activity over a rolling three-month window. The modest year-over-year median sold-price increase conflicts with the recent rent decline, while the below-list average sale-to-list result and supply reading prevent a simple interpretation of resale strength. The annualized ZORI-to-price calculation is useful only as a cross-source screen and carries no property-level operating information.","title":"Resale evidence is mixed and remains separate"}],"risks":["ZORI tracks a typical blended asking-rent index, so it cannot establish the asking price, concessions, utilities, lease duration, availability, or bedroom fit of any individual 77077 home.","ACS ZCTA estimates carry survey uncertainty and describe a statistical area that does not precisely equal USPS delivery geography; survey medians, vacancy categories, and burdens cannot identify a specific property.","HUD’s local ladder is used solely to scale a blended ZORI into modelled bedroom estimates. Its administrative standards should not be substituted for observed bedroom asking rents or executed leases.","Redfin’s rolling three-month figures are ZIP resale observations, not rental comparables. Sales price, marketing pace, inventory, and sale-to-list measures cannot establish operating costs, tenant demand, or transaction results for any property."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a current ZIP-level index of typical observed asking rents blended across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey for the matched ZCTA, restricted here to occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent definition includes selected utilities. Consequently, their difference can reflect timing, universe, and definition rather than a change in any one lease.","q":"Why is the ACS gross-rent median not the same as Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They offer a consistent bedroom pattern for screening, but no property-level observation confirms that an available studio, one-bedroom, or larger unit is actually offered at the modelled amount.","q":"Are the bedroom values measured rents?"},{"a":"The complete monthly record makes the historical comparison more reliable than a sparse series, and the measured variability is limited rather than extreme. However, the current decline follows a positive five-year history and a realized drawdown. That combination supports a cautious reading of today’s index rather than treating one month as a stable endpoint.","q":"What does the rent history say about confidence in the current snapshot?"},{"a":"They should remain separate evidence streams. Redfin’s ZIP figures describe completed for-sale activity, including prices, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes; they do not report rental deals. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price creates only a cross-source screening ratio, while property-specific expenses, lease terms, and transaction details remain unmeasured.","q":"How should resale figures be connected to the rent screen?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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