ZIP 77079’s clearest measured tension is between a strengthening for-sale signal and a weakening asking-rent signal. Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation reports a $923,791 median sold price, up 19.2% year over year, while Zillow’s current ZIP asking-rent index is $1,601 per month, down 3.3% from a year earlier. Those movements describe separate markets and do not establish a relationship between them. Still, the divergence matters for a reader comparing the current rent snapshot with resale conditions: the resale evidence is firm while the observed asking-rent index has recently softened.
The Zillow history makes that recent softness more consequential than a single monthly reading. The exact same-month one-year rent-history measure is negative 3.3%, the three-year measure is negative 1.1% annualized, and the five-year measure remains positive 2.2% annualized. Thus, the latest one-year and intermediate three-year directions break from, rather than confirm, the longer five-year path. The series has 122 observations with 100% coverage. Its 3.7% annualized monthly-return variability means a current rent snapshot deserves measured confidence rather than being treated as a fixed level; separately, the maximum drawdown of 8.7% shows the historical index has experienced a meaningful decline from a prior peak. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,846 for momentum, 2,406 for stability, and 2,851 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher.
Zillow’s figure is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a survey median for occupied households or a bedroom-specific lease quote. The 77079 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. To create a bedroom view, the ZIP index is scaled by the relative local HUD ladder, producing modelled—not measured—monthly estimates of $1,300 for a studio, $1,343 for one bedroom, $1,601 for two bedrooms, $2,152 for three bedrooms, and $2,686 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so that ladder supplies a model structure rather than evidence of actual bedroom rents in this ZIP.
The matched Census ACS five-year survey offers a useful but distinct occupied-renter benchmark. Its median gross rent is $1,615, and gross rent includes selected utilities; Zillow’s $1,601 asking-rent index is therefore 99.1% of that survey measure, a close numerical relationship that does not make the measures interchangeable. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, the current asking-rent index implies $64,040 in annual income. That is below the ZCTA median household income of $101,995, and the simple asking-rent-to-income comparison is 18.8%. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. ACS also reports 3,643 of 7,977 renter households spending 30% or more of income on rent, or 45.7%; that burden statistic describes surveyed households and cannot prove affordability or burden for any particular unit.
The ZCTA housing base contains 16,800 units, including 7,898 single-family units and 5,393 units in large multifamily structures. Renters occupy a 51.7% share of occupied homes, while the overall vacancy rate is 8.2%. These are area-level stock and vacancy measurements, not evidence that a specific available rental is vacant, comparable, or competitively priced. In wider asking-rent context, Houston city is $1,567, Harris County is $1,600, and the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land metro is $1,648; each is context for its named geography, not a substitute for the ZIP measurement. ZIP 77079 is nearly aligned with Harris County’s context value, above Houston city’s context value, and below the metro context value.
Redfin supplies direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence, not rental transactions or rental comps. Alongside the median sold-price increase noted above, the ZIP recorded 122 homes sold with a median 14 days on market. Inventory was 123 homes and months of supply stood at 3.0, while inventory was down 7.2% year over year. The average sale-to-list result was 99.86%, 32.8% of sales closed above list, and these sale-to-list signals sit with the short marketing time rather than with rental economics. This liquidity picture challenges a simple reading of the declining Zillow rent history: resale activity appears comparatively tight even as current asking rent is lower than a year earlier. It does not show that sale-market conditions will change rents or that any rental property shares the resale median.
The available evidence has material boundaries. Zillow’s index blends rental types, ACS is a five-year survey with sampling uncertainty, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is a rolling resale observation. Historical measures are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Concrete property-level checks needed before comparing any listing with these area figures include its reported bedroom count, asking rent, included utilities, lease term, concessions, physical condition, active availability, and whether its location falls within the intended ZIP delivery area rather than only a mapped ZCTA. Those details can materially alter a comparison to an index, a gross-rent survey, or a modelled bedroom estimate.
For cross-source screening only, annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price equals 2.08%. That screening ratio is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield because it omits property-specific income, expenses, financing, taxes, vacancies, and transaction conditions. The evidence therefore supports a narrow reading: current asking rent is close to the ACS gross-rent benchmark but has weakened over one and three years, whereas direct ZIP resale indicators show faster marketing and near-list sales. The unresolved property-level question is whether a particular available unit’s terms and characteristics support comparison with the modelled ladder and current index at all.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP asking-rent index is down 3.3% over one year and down 1.1% annualized over three years, while the five-year annualized change remains positive at 2.2%. The recent path therefore departs from the longer path. Historical variability and drawdown evidence make a single current index reading useful but not definitive.","title":"Recent rent direction diverges from the longer record"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the all-rental Zillow index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, lease quotes, or HUD asking-rent observations. HUD FMR/SAFMR remains an administrative standard, while Zillow measures a blended asking-rent index.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled from an administrative ladder"},{"body":"The ACS occupied-renter survey places median gross rent near the current Zillow asking-rent index, while the ZIP-level income comparison is below the arithmetic 30% screen. Yet 45.7% of surveyed renter households report gross-rent burdens of at least 30% of income. Neither the area income comparison nor the burden share determines a particular household’s situation.","title":"Survey affordability evidence is mixed in scope"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation shows a higher median sold price, short marketing time, three months of supply, and average sales nearly at list price. Those for-sale signals contrast with the one-year decline in Zillow asking rent. They describe resale liquidity only and cannot be used as rental comps, property economics, or evidence of future rent movement.","title":"Resale liquidity is firmer than the recent rent trend"}],"risks":["A current Zillow asking-rent index blends rental types and may not match a specific listing’s bedroom count, included utilities, condition, lease duration, concessions, or immediate availability.","The complete historical series still contains meaningful variability and an 8.7% maximum drawdown, so recent rent declines should not be converted into a forecast or assumed to persist.","ACS gross rent and burden statistics are five-year survey estimates for occupied renter households, not contemporaneous asking-rent quotes and not proof of affordability for an individual applicant or unit.","Redfin’s resale data are direct ZIP for-sale observations, but median sold price, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list outcomes cannot establish rental income, operating costs, financing outcomes, or property-level returns."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Their close current values are informative context, but they are not interchangeable measurements.","q":"Why does the Zillow asking-rent index differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled monthly estimates. They scale the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index using relative values from the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than an asking-rent database, so the results are not measured bedroom rents.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures actual measured rents in ZIP 77079?"},{"a":"It is a mechanical annual-income calculation using the current asking-rent index and a 30% rent-to-income threshold. It is not lending, leasing, legal, or applicant-qualification guidance. Actual household affordability can differ because income, utilities, unit rent, household composition, and lease terms vary.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"The ratio simply divides annualized Zillow ZIP asking rent by Redfin’s median sold price for cross-source screening. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or valuation conclusion. It excludes property expenses, vacancies, taxes, financing, transaction costs, and the characteristics of any individual home.","q":"How should the Redfin screening ratio be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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