At the stated June 2026 Zillow endpoint, 77081’s Zillow Observed Rent Index, or ZORI, is $1,104 per month, down 0.61% on the exact same-month 1-year comparison. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a quoted rent for one dwelling. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and its Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The 30% required-income screen converts this monthly index to $44,160 annually, versus ZCTA median household income of $43,251. Thus the current index equals 30.6% of that median income. It is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule; the immediate tension is a low and slightly cooling asking index that still sits just above this broad income screen.
Backward-looking ZORI history supports the packet’s cooling classification but does not predict rents or offer an investment recommendation. Across exact same-month points, the 3-year annualized rent change is -1.06%, while the 5-year change is +2.84%. Along with the one-year decline reported above, recent direction confirms shorter-run softening and breaks from the positive longer path. The series has 98.7% coverage, enough to frame its record but not to erase source limits. Annualizing the monthly return movements produces 3.4% variability, suggesting a relatively narrow historical range around monthly changes rather than certainty in one current reading. More importantly, the 5.6% maximum drawdown shows that the past index did retreat materially; this tempers confidence in treating today’s snapshot as a permanent level. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower is higher, are 2,616 for momentum, 2,111 for stability, and 2,727 for balanced signals.
Rental cooling has a separate for-sale echo, but its evidence is neither rental data nor a property-level return calculation. Redfin’s direct rolling 3-month ZIP resale observation puts median sold price at $309,930, down 26.2% year over year. Seven homes sold, 29 homes were in inventory, median marketing time was 103 days, and months of supply reached 12.2. Transactions averaged 95.2% of list price, a sale-to-list signal that remains solely in the resale universe. Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by the median sold price yields a 4.3% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The deeper resale price decline and the reported marketing and supply indicators provide a for-sale counterpart to rent cooling, yet they challenge any reading of the mild ZORI movement or income screen as a complete market account.
The closest nonasking rent benchmark is not interchangeable with ZORI. In the matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 5-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,014 for occupied renter homes, below the current asking-rent index. ACS gross rent includes selected utilities and is a survey estimate, while ZORI is an observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The difference can therefore reflect their different universes, timing, rent concepts, and housing mix; it cannot establish that any individual listing changed by that amount. ACS also carries sampling uncertainty, reinforcing that this ZCTA measure is context for occupied renter homes rather than a live asking quote.
Bedroom detail comes from a model, not from bedroom-specific ZIP observations. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $898 for a studio, $931 for one bedroom, $1,104 for two bedrooms, $1,483 for three bedrooms, and $1,854 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they retain the HUD schedule’s bedroom relationship rather than a property’s observed features. The FY2026 local HUD two-bedroom administrative standard is $1,340, above ZORI. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent, so neither it nor the scaled ladder demonstrates an attainable rent for a particular unit.
ACS housing counts give the renter context behind that income tension. The ZCTA’s occupied stock is renter-dominated: renters account for 93.4% of occupied units, while the reported stock includes 9,217 units in large multifamily structures. Units are recorded vacant for rent within an overall 8.1% vacancy rate. In the same ACS universe, 50.7% of renter households meet or exceed the 30% rent-burden threshold. These are area-level conditions, not proof that a particular household is burdened or that a particular vacant unit is available, suitable, or priced at the index. The renter concentration and vacancy measure frame market context, but they do not substitute for a unit-level availability check.
Broader rental context accentuates the level gap without replacing ZIP evidence. In the Houston city context, which is wider and not ZIP data, the rent context value is $1,567; in the Harris County context, also wider and not ZIP data, it is $1,600; and in the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX metro context, likewise wider and not ZIP data, it is $1,648. Each is a wider geographic aggregate and cannot serve as a ZIP listing comparison or a substitute for ZCTA household measures. The contrast establishes that the ZIP’s index is below all three context values, but it does not identify why or establish the rent of a specific dwelling.
Every evidence universe imposes a limit on interpretation. ZORI does not disclose an individual lease, ACS does not observe today’s listing terms, the HUD ladder is administrative, and Redfin resale data record for-sale transactions rather than rental deals. Before drawing a property-level conclusion, verify the unit’s current boundary, listing date, bedroom count, type, asking amount, selected utilities, fees, concessions, lease term, and stated availability. Then distinguish the advertised figure from an executed lease and the rental evidence from a sale listing or closed resale. Check whether those terms align with the relevant household income rather than assuming the area median applies. The key unresolved question is whether a specific home’s verifiable all-in terms match the statistical screens, rather than whether any aggregate can answer that alone.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI is $1,104, with a 0.61% exact same-month 1-year decline. Yet annual income required by the 30% arithmetic screen is $44,160, slightly above the ZCTA’s $43,251 median household income. This creates a measured income-screen tension, but neither figure identifies an individual household’s income, actual utilities, lease terms, or qualification outcome.","title":"Income screen is narrowly strained"},{"body":"One- and three-year same-month ZORI movements are negative, while 5-year annualized growth remains positive. The history’s 3.4% annualized monthly variability is not extreme, but a 5.6% maximum drawdown makes a single current index an imperfect stand-in for a durable rent level. These are backward-looking indicators, not forecasts.","title":"Cooling breaks from the longer record"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation shows a much sharper median sold-price decline than the change in ZORI, alongside limited transaction volume, lengthy marketing time, and elevated supply. This supports a broader cooling tension, but it does not convert resale conditions into rental comps or establish rental property economics for any building or unit.","title":"Resale evidence is softer but separate"},{"body":"ACS records a renter-heavy occupied base, units vacant for rent, and a substantial share of renter households at or above the burden threshold. These are population-level ZCTA conditions. They cannot establish a vacancy, availability, affordability, tenant burden, or demand condition for a named home, address, building, or applicant.","title":"Renter concentration shapes aggregate exposure"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index, so it cannot establish the current asking rent, concessions, utility treatment, condition, or availability of a particular bedroom count, unit, or property.","The ACS ZCTA estimate is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes, with sampling uncertainty and selected utility treatment; it is not a current asking-rent comp or a USPS delivery geography.","Redfin’s rolling-three-month resale sample records only seven sales, while sale price, supply, marketing time, and sale-to-list measures describe for-sale activity rather than rental transactions, tenant demand, or property operating economics.","Vacancy and rent-burden figures are aggregate ZCTA observations. They cannot prove a particular home is vacant, available for rent, affordable to a given household, or experiencing a specified level of tenant demand."],"qa":[{"a":"The June 2026 value of $1,104 is Zillow’s typical observed ZIP asking-rent index across blended rental types. It captures a market-level asking-rent measure, not an executed lease or a bedroom-specific quote. The reported year-over-year movement is backward-looking and does not assure a particular listing’s price.","q":"What does the current ZORI figure measure?"},{"a":"ACS gives a matched ZCTA five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities in gross rent. ZORI tracks observed asking rents, while HUD’s bedroom schedule is an administrative FMR/SAFMR standard. The bedroom amounts shown here are ZORI-scaled modelled estimates, not measured rent observations. A ZCTA is statistical and not the same as a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"Why should ACS, ZORI, and HUD figures not be substituted for one another?"},{"a":"No. Redfin reports direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale and resale conditions, including median sold price, sales, days on market, inventory, supply, and list-price outcomes. Those are not rental transactions. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio, and it excludes unit-specific costs, lease terms, and matching between sold homes and rentals.","q":"Does the resale result establish rental property economics?"},{"a":"Confirm the exact property address against the market boundary, the date and status of the listing, bedroom count and unit type, base asking amount, selected utilities, fees, concessions, lease term, and stated availability. Also separate an advertised price from a signed lease and a sale listing from a closed resale.","q":"What property-level records would resolve the largest uncertainty?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":941.116371},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":947.992822},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":950.077961},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":931.725022},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":913.307071},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":911.311181},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":908.43638},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":906.646713},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":901.256512},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":896.845638},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":902.614735},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":914.855425},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":916.138835},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":919.580004},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":904.328667},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":906.107331},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":926.512387},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":940.484392},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":960.215755},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":967.692945},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":983.146186},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1022.983061},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1040.52873},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1046.711166},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1042.747478},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1044.198865},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1054.591177},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1057.877798},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1056.473702},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1056.101671},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1072.841457},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1092.397013},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1100.238964},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1093.644042},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1091.177785},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1096.182947},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1095.995951},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1103.402402},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1100.215881},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1113.896365},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1125.665657},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1140.013097},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1128.742354},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1109.208372},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1106.760833},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1116.780462},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1123.777407},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1112.89043},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1114.843154},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1116.295349},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1132.738619},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1121.974534},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1121.474644},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1107.616452},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1120.083628},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1124.662579},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1124.565244},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1104.991077},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1098.579352},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1104.090448},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1122.31807},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1133.574554},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1134.11549},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1131.268983},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1119.095776},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1111.128466},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1104.234353},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1106.01498},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1105.58318},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1116.280121},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1117.939649},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1117.30409},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1102.254277},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1091.306182},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1083.477005},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1087.642045},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1094.574158},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1104.3}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":78,"firstPeriod":"2019-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":79,"coverageRatio":0.9873417721518988,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1111.128466,"endRent":1104.3,"change":-0.006145523410611586,"cagr":-0.006145523410611586},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1140.013097,"endRent":1104.3,"change":-0.03132691816785338,"cagr":-0.010553286124313277},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":960.215755,"endRent":1104.3,"change":0.15005403134631967,"cagr":0.028356385041724108}},"maxDrawdown":-0.056029426199898924,"annualizedVolatility":0.03366189109213894,"consecutiveReturnCount":76}}