At $1,308 in June, Zillow ZORI in ZIP market identifier 77082 frames a cooling rent signal. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than contract rent for one unit. It was 0.29% lower than one year earlier. In Houston city context, the rent index is $1,567; Harris County context is $1,600; and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX, metro context is $1,648. Those city, county, and metro figures are wider context, not ZIP-level rental comparisons. The local index sits below each, but the comparison says nothing about any individual listing.
Looking backward, the recent direction does not continue the full longer path. Exact same-month ZORI changes were -0.29% annualized over one year and -0.30% annualized over three years, after a +2.20% annualized five-year change. Recent cooling therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the five-year rise. The history has 100% coverage through the stated endpoint. The 2.28% annualized variability of monthly returns represents limited but material measured movement, so one current asking-rent snapshot deserves directional confidence rather than dollar-level precision. Separately, the -3.11% maximum drawdown marks the deepest observed peak-to-trough retreat and reinforces that cooling characterization. Among history-eligible ZIPs, the transparent national discovery ranks are 379 for stability and 2,510 for momentum, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source definitions prevent treating the current asking index as Census rent. The matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,416, so the asking index is 7.6% lower. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and gross rent includes selected utilities; it is not a current blended asking-rent index. The local HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is $1,650, placing ZORI at 79.3% of that administrative standard. HUD FMR/SAFMR is bedroom-specific and administrative, not asking rent. The bedroom figures are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: studio $1,062, one bedroom $1,102, two bedrooms $1,308, three bedrooms $1,760, and four bedrooms $2,196 monthly. They scale ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder and cannot substitute for observed unit-level listings.
An aggregate income screen looks less strained than the burden distribution. Annualizing the current monthly index and applying a 30% screen produces $52,320 in required annual income. That is 25.1% of the matched ZCTA's ACS median household income of $62,455. This 30% required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden result takes a different view of occupied renter households: 7,828 of 14,711, or 53.2%, reported spending 30% or more of income on rent. A median cannot describe distributions, and the ACS survey burden figure does not prove the affordability of a particular unit, the circumstances of any resident, or lease terms. The two screens signal a tension between broad median-income arithmetic and observed survey burden.
Vacancy adds a separate stock lens rather than a verdict on current availability. The matched ZCTA records 25,564 housing units, with a 9.5% vacancy rate; renters account for 63.6% of occupied homes. ACS also counts 1,533 units vacant for rent. Its reported stock includes 11,289 single-family units and 6,159 units in large multifamily structures, categories that show a mixed building base but do not identify unit condition, rents, or current marketing. The ZCTA's statistical boundaries and survey timing also differ from a USPS delivery ZIP and an online listing search. Thus neither the overall vacancy figure nor vacant-for-rent count establishes that a specific apartment, house, bedroom configuration, or quoted price is actually available.
Resale evidence points in a different direction. In Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation at its stated June endpoint, median sold price was $306,921, up 4.0% from a year earlier. It recorded 114 homes sold and 42 median days on market. Inventory stood at 183 homes, 15.0% higher year over year, with 4.9 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 96.9%, and 13.5% of sales closed above list. These are for-sale market observations, not rental transactions, rental comps, or property economics. Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by that median sold price gives a 5.1% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The price increase challenges the simultaneously cooling rent history, while growing inventory and sale-to-list signals prevent the resale picture from being a simple one-way confirmation.
Taken together, the strongest tension is between a current asking-rent index below city, county, and metro context and a recent rent path that has softened, versus a direct resale median that rose. The evidence does not resolve that tension because each source answers a different question. Zillow describes typical observed asks across rental types. ACS describes occupied renter homes over five years and carries survey uncertainty; HUD supplies an administrative ladder; Redfin reports recent closed for-sale activity. Complete rent-history coverage supports the broad cooling characterization, but measured variability and drawdown do not make the index an exact rent quote. Timing, property mix, utility treatment, bedroom count, concessions, and condition are not harmonized across these sources. None of these comparisons forecasts rents, prices, availability, or household outcomes.
At property level, the unresolved fields are the listing date, asking rent, bedroom count, square footage, lease length, utility responsibility, fees, deposits, and concessions. A property-level review would need to verify whether an address's USPS delivery ZIP and Census ZCTA treatment align with the geography used, while distinguishing an advertised asking rent from an executed lease. For a resale comparison, the relevant closed-sale record, marketing time, list price, and physical-property-condition differences matter more than applying the ZIP median to one building. Inventory status also requires confirmation at the time of review, because aggregate vacancy and rolling resale measures cannot locate an available unit or replicate its terms. The unresolved question is whether a specific unit's all-in monthly terms and a specific property's direct resale comparables resemble these separate broad measures.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow's June ZIP index is $1,308 and is 0.29% below its year-earlier level. Exact same-month history is also slightly negative over three years, whereas the five-year annualized change remains positive. Complete coverage, 2.28% annualized monthly-return variability, and a 3.11% maximum drawdown support a cooling interpretation while cautioning that the observed asking-rent index is not an exact quote for any unit.","title":"Cooling rent path, not a five-year collapse"},{"body":"The $1,416 ACS median gross rent represents occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities, so it is not interchangeable with Zillow's current blended asking-rent index. HUD's two-bedroom administrative standard is likewise not asking rent. Studio-through-four-bedroom ZIP figures are modelled by scaling ZORI with the HUD ladder, organizing a bedroom screen rather than measuring rents for particular available units.","title":"Source definitions drive the rent comparison"},{"body":"Annualizing ZORI under the 30% formula produces a $52,320 required-income screen against a $62,455 median household income. However, ACS reports that 53.2% of renter households carry rent burdens at or above 30%. The contrast reflects different aggregate measures and distributions; neither figure can determine whether a particular household qualifies or whether a particular lease is affordable.","title":"Median-income arithmetic differs from burden evidence"},{"body":"Redfin reports a ZIP resale median sold price of $306,921, 4.0% above the preceding year, even as the asking-rent history has cooled. That difference is a decision tension, not proof of a relationship. The 5.1% annualized-rent-to-sale-price calculation is a cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or forecast.","title":"Resale price movement does not mirror rental movement"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is blended across rental types and reports typical observed asking rent, so it cannot confirm a particular unit's bedroom count, utility package, concessions, availability, or signed lease payment.","ACS ZCTA estimates are five-year survey data for a statistical area that is not the same as a USPS delivery ZIP; margins of error and differing source timing limit precision.","HUD FMR/SAFMR amounts are administrative bedroom standards, and the published studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled from ZORI using the ladder rather than measured rents.","Redfin's rolling-three-month ZIP resale metrics are for-sale observations; annualized ZORI divided by sold price is only a cross-source screen and cannot establish property economics or future performance."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI measures typical observed asking rent blended across rental types at the ZIP market identifier. ACS reports a five-year median gross rent for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. Different populations, timing, rent definitions, and geography mean the two values should be compared as context, not treated as competing quotes for the same unit.","q":"Why can the Zillow and ACS rent figures differ?"},{"a":"The published studio, one-, two-, three-, and four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates. They scale ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder, which is an administrative FMR/SAFMR standard. They do not sample or report measured bedroom-specific asking rents, and cannot establish a quote, utilities, condition, availability, or concession for an actual listing.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured rents?"},{"a":"The stated required income is obtained by annualizing the monthly ZORI and applying a 30% rent-to-income calculation. It is only arithmetic. It is not financial advice, an affordability determination, or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden share instead summarizes survey responses from occupied renter households and cannot establish the situation of an individual household.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"Redfin's figures are direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale and resale observations, including sold-price, supply, time-on-market, and sale-to-list information. They do not represent rental transactions. The median resale price rose while rent history cooled, creating a tension rather than a causal conclusion. The annualized ZORI-to-price ratio remains only a cross-source screen, never a property-level yield or return.","q":"What does the Redfin resale evidence add?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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