The strongest signal in 77092 is a split: the asking-rent series has accelerated while the direct resale series has weakened. At June 2026, Zillow ZORI is $1,539 per month, a typical observed ZIP asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a quoted rent for a particular dwelling. Its exact same-month change is 4.5% over one year, versus 0.4% annualized over three years and 3.3% over five years. The latest direction confirms the positive five-year path but breaks from the subdued three-year run. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts. Annualized monthly-return variability is 3.4%, maximum drawdown is -5.4%, and historical coverage is 98.4%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,262 for momentum, 2,153 for stability, and 1,824 for balanced performance; lower ranks are higher. That volatility and drawdown history limits confidence in any single current rent snapshot.
The five-digit label 77092 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the match to the Census ZCTA used for ACS. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey places median gross rent at $1,276, 20.6% below the Zillow index. The difference does not establish a rent change by itself. ACS surveys occupied renter homes over five years and median gross rent includes selected utilities; Zillow represents current typical observed asking rent and blends rental types. Thus ACS is neither a current advertised-rent comp nor a quote for vacant homes. Its $60 margin of error is survey uncertainty around the rent median, a different limitation from movement in Zillow’s index.
Bedroom detail is a model, not an observation. The studio, one-, two-, three-, and four-bedroom figures of $1,249, $1,294, $1,539, $2,074, and $2,587 are modelled ZIP estimates, created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local FY2026 HUD ladder; they are never measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Its local two-bedroom standard is $1,380, so the ZIP index is 11.5% higher on that comparison. That does not turn ZORI into a two-bedroom reading or HUD into a lease offer. The ladder offers proportional bedroom sizing only; a specific dwelling can differ from those modelled estimates.
On the supplied 30% screen, annual income of $61,560 is the arithmetic amount that makes the $1,539 monthly ZIP index equal that share of income. It is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The matched ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $58,728, making that simple screen 31.4%; this is a broad household median rather than a renter-specific income test. ACS further estimates that 55.2% of renter households spend that share or more on gross rent. Because the burden measure uses gross rent, including selected utilities, it does not duplicate ZORI. Nor does this population-level burden result prove the rent burden, payment outcome, or eligibility of anyone in a particular unit.
Stock indicators show a renter-heavy ZCTA, but they do not certify availability in a particular building. The ACS survey counts 16,456 housing units and 1,655 vacant units, for a 10.1% vacancy rate, while renter households represent 59.4% of occupied homes. The structural mix includes single-family units and units in large multifamily structures. Of the recorded vacancies, 1,140 are for rent. These are ZCTA five-year stock and vacancy measures, not a live listing feed. In particular, an area vacancy rate or a for-rent vacancy count cannot establish whether a given apartment is vacant, its asking price, its condition, or the terms under which it can be leased.
On wider-market context, the ZIP index sits below the Houston city context asking-rent index of $1,567, the Harris County context asking-rent index of $1,600, and the Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, TX metro context asking-rent index of $1,648. Each is named as city, county, or metro context in the same comparison and none is a ZIP-level rental comp. The ZIP renter share is higher than the county context; its vacancy rate is lower than the city context but higher than the county context. The metro context also has a lower rent-to-income screen than the ZIP arithmetic screen. Those geographic comparisons frame scale only and do not explain the ZIP’s rent movement, alter its source definitions, or establish conditions at a property.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a $312,429 median sold price, down 10.7% year over year. It recorded 64 homes sold and a median 28 days on market, alongside 204 active listings, an inventory measure of 85 homes, and 4.0 months of supply. Average sale to list was 97.9%, while 19.4% of sales closed above list. This is direct ZIP for-sale evidence, not rental transactions, rental comps, or property economics. The sale-price decline challenges a simple interpretation that the recent ZORI acceleration and the more stretched ZIP income screen coexist with uniformly firm local pricing. Yet the recorded sales and marketing measures speak only to resale liquidity and negotiation signals; they cannot confirm the rent index, explain it, or turn the rent-to-price screen into an investment result.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin median sale price is 5.9%, but it is only a cross-source screening ratio. It must not be interpreted as a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The two inputs have different universes, and the packet contains no property operating costs, financing terms, or unit-level lease performance. Before applying a ZIP screen to a dwelling, check its advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease duration, availability date, and any actual sale/list information. Those checks are needed because Zillow blends rental types, ACS describes occupied survey homes, HUD supplies an administrative standard, and Redfin describes rolling resale activity. Do the advertised unit’s terms actually align with any of these separate benchmarks?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s $1,539 June 2026 ZORI rose 4.5% from the same month a year earlier, ahead of the 0.4% three-year annualized and 3.3% five-year annualized changes. The pattern is accelerating relative to the medium run, but 3.4% annualized variability and a -5.4% maximum drawdown mean the result is historical context rather than a reliable projection.","title":"Recent acceleration exceeds the medium-run rate"},{"body":"The $1,276 ACS median gross rent belongs to occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA’s 2024 five-year survey and includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI reflects typical observed current asking rent across rental types, while HUD’s $1,380 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is administrative. The $1,249–$2,587 bedroom figures are modelled from ZORI and the HUD ladder, not measured rents.","title":"Rent figures are not interchangeable"},{"body":"The arithmetic 30% screen requires annual income of $61,560 for $1,539 monthly asking rent, compared with ACS median household income of $58,728. ACS estimates 55.2% of renter households devote at least 30% of income to gross rent. These aggregate measures cannot determine a household’s income, utility costs, eligibility, or actual rent burden for a listed unit.","title":"ZIP screen signals broad affordability pressure"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP rolling-three-month resale observation reports a $312,429 median sold price, down 10.7% year over year, with 64 homes sold in 28 median days. The 4.0 months of supply and 97.9% average sale-to-list ratio describe resale liquidity and negotiation, not rental transactions. The resale price decline complicates, rather than confirms, a uniformly strong interpretation of rent acceleration.","title":"Resale evidence challenges a uniformly strong reading"}],"risks":["Zillow’s blended current asking-rent index, the ACS survey’s gross-rent median, and HUD’s administrative standards answer different questions. Treating their dollar gaps as direct unit rent changes would overstate comparability.","The 30% calculation and renter burden share describe ZIP or ZCTA-level arithmetic and survey outcomes. They cannot establish a specific applicant’s income, utility bill, rent burden, lease approval, or payment performance.","ZCTA vacancy figures are five-year stock data and include categories other than live available rentals. Neither the 10.1% rate nor the for-rent count verifies vacancy, pricing, condition, or concessions for a particular dwelling.","Redfin’s rolling-three-month resale data concern sold homes and listings, not rental transactions. A median sale price decline or sale-to-list signal may challenge a broad narrative, but it does not measure property expenses or rental economics."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow’s June 2026 $1,539 ZORI measures a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It summarizes the 77092 market identifier rather than a specific lease, advertised unit, or measured bedroom rent. Its prior changes are historical observations through the stated endpoint and do not predict future rent.","q":"What does the June 2026 Zillow figure measure?"},{"a":"ACS reports a five-year survey result for occupied renter homes in the matched Census ZCTA, which is a statistical area rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP. Its median gross rent includes selected utilities. ZORI instead represents current typical observed asking rent across rental types, so their difference is not a direct measure of rent change.","q":"Why should ACS median gross rent and ZORI be compared cautiously?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The estimates are useful for proportional screening but do not measure rents achieved or quoted for individual bedroom types.","q":"Are the bedroom figures actual ZIP rent observations?"},{"a":"Redfin adds a direct rolling-three-month observation of the ZIP’s for-sale market: sold prices, sales volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals. It can reveal tension with the rent history, such as falling resale prices alongside rising ZORI. The 5.9% annualized-rent-to-sale-price ratio remains only a cross-source screen, not a property return measure.","q":"What does the Redfin resale information add to the rental screen?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1335.617159},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1309.720515},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1302.819298},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1312.847701},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1390.619477},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1420.623548},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1441.39248},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1458.951175},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1466.131659},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1479.991611},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1499.74228},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1513.627478},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1519.844305},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1501.824548},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1491.935568},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1483.52074},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1478.651101},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1484.33366},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1493.93707},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1496.756787},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1507.00815},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1499.581445},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1505.636362},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1502.055171},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1519.327374},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1523.269949},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1519.84738},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1523.161342},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1507.443395},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1495.443304},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1474.391135},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1482.993587},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1480.049736},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1475.733679},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1474.872369},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1503.170354},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1530.928967},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1547.554804},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1533.661765},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1537.355413},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1528.50728},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1525.39473},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1519.838935},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1514.912318},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1514.728205},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1535.959768},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1547.156191},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1506.795272},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1472.926539},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1463.450398},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1477.160267},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1474.401974},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1489.09202},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1496.593035},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1510.016259},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1510.802714},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1513.043179},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1503.821103},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1499.355949},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1522.112942},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1539.455026}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":61,"firstPeriod":"2021-05-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":62,"coverageRatio":0.9838709677419355,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1472.926539,"endRent":1539.455026,"change":0.04516755265009187,"cagr":0.04516755265009187},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1519.327374,"endRent":1539.455026,"change":0.013247738666755549,"cagr":0.004396554866205937},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1309.720515,"endRent":1539.455026,"change":0.17540727839939207,"cagr":0.03285100189412682}},"maxDrawdown":-0.05434664141303014,"annualizedVolatility":0.034205979876804855,"consecutiveReturnCount":59}}