ZIP 77095 is simultaneously Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match used here. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the stated Zillow period, Zillow ZORI was $1,420, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, down 0.9% year over year. That asking-rent reading sat below the Houston city context of $1,567, the Harris County context of $1,600, and the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX metro context of $1,648. The central signal is therefore a ZIP rent index cooling below each wider benchmark, rather than a claim about every listing or property.
The ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey puts median gross rent at $1,687; gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike Zillow’s asking-rent index. ZIP ZORI equals 84.2% of that survey median, a cross-universe contrast that can reflect different populations, timing, rental mix, and utility treatment rather than a verified discount. The ACS income measure is also a household-wide survey statistic, not renter income or a lease underwriting measure. Keep the ZCTA boundary distinction in view when comparing its survey results to Zillow’s ZIP identifier and its current asking-rent index.
Bedroom detail is a modelling bridge, not a set of observed ZIP bedroom rents. The local HUD ladder scales the $1,420 ZIP ZORI into modelled monthly estimates of $1,158 for a studio, $1,196 for one bedroom, $1,420 for two bedrooms, $1,914 for three bedrooms, and $2,385 for four bedrooms. These estimates inherit the ZIP index and HUD bedroom relationships; they do not measure current advertised rents by unit size. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so its local ladder is a benchmark used for scaling rather than evidence of rental transactions.
An arithmetic 30% screen translates a $1,420 monthly asking-rent index into $56,800 of annual income. It is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule, and it does not identify the income of a particular renter. The ACS ZCTA nevertheless records 3,819 of 7,500 renter households with costs at or above 30% of income, or 50.9%; this is a survey burden measure, not proof of burden in a given unit. For wider survey context, Houston city’s renter-burden share is 54.1% and Harris County’s is 53.8%. The local burden reading is lower than both contexts but remains near half of surveyed renter households.
Supply composition supplies a separate constraint on interpretation. The ACS ZCTA has 26,513 housing units and a 3.9% vacancy rate, while 811 vacant units were classified for rent. Single-family homes outweigh large multifamily structures, and owner occupancy exceeds renter occupancy, indicating a stock mix unlike a renter-majority market without assigning a rental type to any individual listing. Vacancy is a point-in-time classification in the survey universe; it neither establishes available, habitable units today nor demonstrates negotiating leverage for a particular prospective tenant. It should be read alongside the asking-rent index, not substituted for live listing availability.
History makes the current decline more nuanced. At the stated history endpoint, the 1-year exact same-month change was -0.9%, versus a 3-year annualized gain of 0.2% and a 5-year rate of 2.9%. Thus the recent direction breaks from, rather than confirms, the modest positive longer path. Annualized variability of monthly returns was 2.4%, meaning a single current rent snapshot has greater value as a current index level than as evidence about the next period’s direction. The worst peak-to-trough decline in the observed series was 2.8%, evidence of prior softness rather than a floor. The series had full coverage across 138 observations. Transparent national discovery ranks are 2,552 for momentum, 523 for stability, and 1,932 for balance, where lower is higher; they organize backward-looking history, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation describes the for-sale market, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $318,828, down 3.6% from a year earlier. The observation recorded 171 homes sold with a median 35 days on market, inventory of 203 homes, and 3.6 months of supply. Sellers averaged 98.1% of list price; 10.3% of sales closed above list, while 28.9% went off market within two weeks. The resale price decline confirms the rent-history cooling signal, although recorded sales and the supply reading show observed resale activity rather than an absence of liquidity. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 5.34%, solely a cross-source screening ratio and not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
Limits are material. Zillow ZORI does not supply a unit’s condition, lease term, utility bill, fee, concession, availability, or bedroom-specific observed asking rent; ACS is survey data and HUD is an administrative standard. The resale series is not rental transactions, and its screening ratio does not include expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, repairs, or vacancy for any property. Concrete property-level checks are the advertised rent and bedroom count, included utilities and fees, lease terms and concessions, current availability, property type and condition, and truly comparable recorded sales. Nothing in these aggregates establishes rent, burden, vacancy, or resale outcomes for a particular unit. Which of those unobserved details changes the comparison most?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s ZIP-level asking-rent index was $1,420 and declined 0.9% year over year. It was below the Houston city, Harris County, and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land metro context rent measures. This identifies a relative current-rent gap and recent softness in the ZIP index, but Zillow ZORI remains a blended typical observed asking-rent measure rather than a quote for a specific available home.","title":"Cooling asking-rent signal versus wider benchmarks"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom values use the ZIP ZORI scaled by the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are modelled monthly estimates intended to show the ladder implied by that methodology. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so neither the HUD figures nor the scaled estimates should be treated as measured ZIP rents for a particular bedroom count.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled, not observed"},{"body":"The latest one-year ZIP ZORI measure was negative, while the three-year and five-year annualized changes remained modestly positive. That makes current cooling a break from the longer path rather than confirmation of it. Full historical coverage and relatively limited monthly-return variability improve confidence in the reported current index reading, but do not convert the history into a forecast.","title":"Recent rent direction breaks from the longer history"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation showed a year-over-year decline in median sold price alongside recorded closed sales, measured marketing time, and months of supply. This for-sale evidence is directionally consistent with the cooling rent index, while the sales count and sale-to-list data show active resale observations. It must not be used as rental comparable evidence or as property-level operating economics.","title":"Resale softness aligns with rent cooling, with ongoing sales activity"}],"risks":["The asking-rent index is blended across rental types and cannot establish the advertised rent, concession, utility treatment, availability, bedroom count, or lease economics of a specific currently marketed home.","ACS ZCTA estimates are five-year survey results for a statistical area, not a USPS delivery ZIP, and their gross-rent and burden measures describe occupied renter homes rather than live listings.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom standards. The bedroom ladder derived from them is a modelled estimate, so it may not match observed asking rents for any actual ZIP property.","Redfin resale metrics are direct rolling-three-month for-sale observations, not rental transactions. The rent-price screen omits ownership costs and cannot establish cap rate, yield, net return, or expected return."],"qa":[{"a":"A Census ZCTA is a statistical approximation used to publish survey data, while a USPS ZIP is a delivery-routing construct. Here, 77095 is both the Zillow market identifier and the matched ZCTA label, but their boundaries, address coverage, and underlying populations need not be identical.","q":"What does the ZCTA match mean for ZIP 77095?"},{"a":"The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for a standardized size comparison, but they are not measured asking rents, lease quotes, advertised listings, or proof of rent for any particular bedroom type.","q":"What do the bedroom estimates represent?"},{"a":"The negative one-year change is a backward-looking measurement of recent ZIP ZORI movement. Because the three-year and five-year measures remained positive, recent direction differs from the longer path. It supports a cooling description for the index, but it does not forecast future rents or establish a future market outcome.","q":"How should the recent rent decline be interpreted?"},{"a":"Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio that places an asking-rent index beside a resale-price observation. It excludes operating expenses, taxes, insurance, financing, maintenance, unit condition, vacancy experience, and actual lease terms, so it is not a property yield or return measure.","q":"What does the Zillow-to-Redfin screening ratio show?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1048.187291},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1055.222307},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1043.091401},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1040.521227},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1030.337746},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1039.57646},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1038.508765},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1046.518123},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1042.431035},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1046.256981},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1044.112859},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1049.03009},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1045.285094},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1042.982593},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1048.281674},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1047.92215},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1053.785242},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1044.317565},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1043.766935},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1038.7121},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1046.194916},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1045.58019},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1053.067861},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1051.628974},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1053.61173},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1049.085786},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1041.671558},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1041.931957},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1048.016408},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1052.898426},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1050.357119},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1045.636426},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1047.030258},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1050.444592},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1056.002729},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1058.053024},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1069.107413},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1077.583057},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1082.677954},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1081.945896},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1085.102375},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1089.070964},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1096.725197},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1094.634406},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1096.495201},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1088.635333},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1089.871314},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1086.321759},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1087.939469},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1090.475476},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1093.638639},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1098.709323},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1097.187771},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1098.191361},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1098.735835},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1108.443775},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1110.239117},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1119.963196},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1120.63582},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1128.684229},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1128.28354},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1130.028029},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1133.912545},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1148.437009},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1155.252382},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1160.925213},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1153.198935},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1156.581022},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1165.851613},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1166.666316},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1180.789215},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1174.028673},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1200.325821},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1189.682287},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1191.774433},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1185.664901},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1208.566306},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1230.238818},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1258.298931},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1273.121422},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1292.587932},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1302.497671},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1304.043071},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1324.202352},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1320.16318},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1340.817327},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1341.34671},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1347.249775},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1334.087658},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1334.527233},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1332.268262},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1343.889507},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1345.519744},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1368.001351},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1379.27627},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1381.298832},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1370.214581},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1378.886097},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1387.737418},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1408.473556},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1411.457866},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1413.540575},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1414.513872},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1410.807028},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1400.953538},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1380.765521},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1374.232543},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1375.599304},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1398.108598},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1388.28263},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1398.762345},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1387.421069},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1402.292258},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1398.062534},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1399.061173},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1403.782745},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1414.929693},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1426.18219},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1423.257522},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1419.298886},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1407.438075},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1418.796425},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1414.782374},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1424.009838},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1420.363836},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1433.318891},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1437.723447},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1438.450483},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1438.324619},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1438.393032},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1444.66094},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1448.440242},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1450.697352},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1445.403071},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1442.042597},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1435.816117},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1430.147981},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1420.047824}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1433.318891,"endRent":1420.047824,"change":-0.009258977247373679,"cagr":-0.009258977247373679},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1413.540575,"endRent":1420.047824,"change":0.004603510585467374,"cagr":0.0015321548311522104},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1230.238818,"endRent":1420.047824,"change":0.15428630866043758,"cagr":0.029112157675336592}},"maxDrawdown":-0.0284771537397831,"annualizedVolatility":0.023906906037522695,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}