ZIP 77380 presents a measured split between its current asking-rent snapshot and its longer rent path. Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, is $1,604 per month, down 2.3% from a year earlier. That current asking-rent index sits below the matched ACS median gross rent of $1,707, a 6.0% gap, even though the two measures describe different housing populations and cost concepts. The immediate direction is therefore softer, while the historical record and household-cost measures require a broader reading than one monthly index observation.
The one-year same-month rent-history measure is a 2.3% decline, the three-year same-month annualized change is a near-flat 0.02% gain, and the five-year same-month annualized change is a 3.5% increase. Recent weakening breaks from the longer five-year growth path rather than confirming it. The history contains 137 observations with 100% reported coverage, which supports continuity of the record but does not make it predictive. Annualized monthly variability of 3.5% calls for moderate caution around one current rent snapshot, while the 5.7% maximum drawdown shows that observed asking rents have previously retreated from earlier peaks. Transparent national discovery ranks of 2,707 for momentum, 2,203 for stability, and 2,781 for the balanced measure place this ZIP’s backward-looking profile in a relatively weak rank position among history-eligible ZIPs; they are not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The 77380 label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. HUD’s figures are instead administrative, bedroom-specific FMR or SAFMR standards, not asking rents. Using the local HUD bedroom ladder to scale ZIP ZORI produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,306 for a studio, $1,346 for one bedroom, $1,604 for two bedrooms, $2,160 for three bedrooms, and $2,692 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. The ZIP index is 19.4% below the local HUD two-bedroom standard of $1,990, illustrating why the standards and observed asking-rent index should not be substituted for each other.
At the current ZIP asking-rent index, the arithmetic 30% required-income screen equals $64,160 annually. That is 21.7% of the matched ZCTA median household income of $88,562, so the area-level income comparison is below the screen; it is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden measure provides a separate retrospective household view: 3,939 renter households, or 40.4% of surveyed renter households, reported paying at least 30% of income toward rent. Gross-rent burden reflects occupied households with differing incomes, rents, household sizes, and utility costs, so it cannot establish affordability for a particular applicant or unit.
The matched ZCTA had 31,369 residents and 16,679 housing units in the ACS survey. Of occupied homes, 9,761 were renter occupied, making renters 63.6% of occupied households. The overall vacancy rate was 8.0%, with 1,061 units classified as vacant for rent; those counts identify a survey status, not the rent, condition, concession, or actual availability of any specific listing. Housing stock spans 6,596 single-family units and 4,896 units in large multifamily buildings. That mix matters when reading a blended asking-rent index because the index is not a property-type-specific or bedroom-specific transaction series.
Wider geography offers context but not a replacement market measure. The Spring city context asking-rent figure is $1,750, the Montgomery County context asking-rent figure is $1,733, and the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX metro context asking-rent figure is $1,648; each is broader context for its named geography, not a ZIP reading. ZIP 77380’s $1,604 index is below all three comparisons, including the metro figure by a smaller margin than the city and county figures. This relative positioning is consistent with the ZIP’s lower current index, but it does not reveal whether any individual property is competitively priced.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation describes the for-sale market, not rental transactions. Its median sold price was $457,397, down 2.7% year over year, with 99 homes sold and a median 41 days on market. Redfin reported 187 active listings, 95 homes of inventory, and 2.9 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 96.6%; 11.5% of sales closed above list, and 30.6% of listings went off market within two weeks. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price is a 4.2% cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The sale-price decline broadly confirms the recent asking-rent decline as a shared near-term direction, while the sales volume and sub-three-month supply complicate any simple interpretation of resale liquidity from price change alone.
The evidence is strongest for a current rent index below broader asking-rent context, a one-year decline after longer-run growth, substantial renter representation, and a resale market with declining median sold price but continuing recorded turnover. Limits are material: Zillow is an asking-rent index, ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is a direct ZIP resale series. A property-level review should verify the exact bedroom count, advertised rent, utilities, lease term, concessions, listing status, sale comparables, condition, and the applicable taxes, insurance, maintenance, and financing assumptions. None of these area-level measures proves the economics, vacancy, burden, or marketability of a particular property.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP asking-rent index was $1,604 and declined 2.3% over one year. The three-year annualized change was essentially flat, while the five-year annualized measure remained positive. That sequence indicates recent softening after a longer period of rent growth, rather than a continuation of the longer-run trend.","title":"Recent asking-rent movement broke from the five-year path"},{"body":"The arithmetic income needed to place the current asking-rent index at 30% of gross income is below the matched ZCTA median household income. Yet ACS reports that 40.4% of renter households paid at least 30% of income toward rent. The first is a current area-level screen, while the second is a survey-based measure of occupied renter households.","title":"Area-level affordability signals are mixed"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures scale the ZIP-wide Zillow index using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They provide a consistent modelled ladder, but they are not observed asking-rent medians or completed lease rents by bedroom count. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard, so its difference from Zillow should not be read as a direct market discount.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled from HUD standards"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale record shows a year-over-year decline in median sold price alongside recorded sales, active listings, and 2.9 months of supply. That price direction aligns with the recent asking-rent decline, but Redfin measures for-sale transactions and listing conditions rather than rents, tenant demand, or property operating economics.","title":"Resale evidence confirms softer prices but not a rental conclusion"}],"risks":["The current Zillow figure is a blended asking-rent index rather than a lease transaction, and its recent decline should not be assumed to apply equally across bedroom sizes, structures, lease terms, or individual listings.","ACS gross rent, renter burden, vacancy, and household income are matched-ZCTA five-year survey measures with population-level interpretation; they cannot prove that a particular household, property, or vacant unit has the reported condition.","HUD bedroom standards support the modelled rent ladder but are administrative benchmarks rather than observed ZIP asking rents, so comparisons with Zillow can overstate precision if treated as direct market evidence.","Redfin resale metrics concern for-sale homes over a rolling three-month ZIP period. Sale price, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list measures should not be converted into rental performance or property-level operating conclusions."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures cover different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference does not demonstrate an error, a trend reversal, or a direct discount for an individual listing.","q":"Why does the ACS median gross rent exceed the Zillow asking-rent index?"},{"a":"No. The studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom, three-bedroom, and four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates. They scale the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for a standardized comparison, but they are not measured rents from bedroom-specific listings, signed leases, or completed rental transactions.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed ZIP rents?"},{"a":"It is arithmetic: current monthly asking rent is annualized and divided by 30% to produce an income screen. It compares a ZIP-wide rent index with an area-level median household income. It is not financial advice, a tenant-screening rule, an affordability determination for a household, or evidence that a particular applicant will qualify.","q":"What does the 30% required-income calculation mean?"},{"a":"The ratio divides annualized ZIP Zillow asking rent by Redfin’s direct ZIP median sold price. It is a cross-source screening comparison that can highlight the relationship between a broad rent index and resale pricing. It excludes operating expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy experience, property condition, and actual lease terms.","q":"How should the Redfin screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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