ZIP 77381’s central reading is a current asking-rent index that stands well above its survey-based renter-housing benchmark. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI was $2,440 per month. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a recorded lease price for a specified dwelling. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For wider context only, Spring city-context rent was $1,750, Montgomery County context rent was $1,733, and the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX metro-context rent was $1,648. Those wider geographies are reference points, not replacements for ZIP-level evidence.
The backward rent path remains positive, but its speed has moderated from the longer run. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 3.3% over one year, 3.6% over three years, and 8.0% over five years. Thus, the recent direction confirms the longer positive path but breaks from its faster five-year pace. Monthly ZORI returns annualize to 6.5% variability, meaning month-to-month movements have been material around the trend; separately, the worst peak-to-trough decline reached 7.3%. History coverage was 96.9%, supporting a substantial but not perfect record. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 785 for momentum, 2,893 for stability, and 1,881 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations, and the high variability warrants less confidence in any single current rent snapshot than a smoother series would.
The source gap requires care before treating the current index as a household-cost measure. The matched ZCTA’s ACS five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,727 with a $124 margin of error; it describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. That gross-rent figure is 41.3% below Zillow’s current asking-rent index, but the difference is not an apples-to-apples market spread because the surveys and rent concepts differ. HUD FMR/SAFMR is instead an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; its local two-bedroom standard is $2,060. Scaling ZIP ZORI through that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,990 for a studio, $2,049 for one bedroom, $2,440 for two bedrooms, $3,281 for three bedrooms, and $4,098 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
The income screen is comparatively favorable at the ZIP-wide median, while the burden evidence remains a counterweight. Annualizing the current ZORI produces a $97,600 income requirement under a 30% screen. This is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The matched ZCTA’s median household income was $143,565 with a $10,788 margin of error, placing the index-based asking-rent-to-income screen at 20.4%. Yet 49.7% of surveyed renter households paid at least 30% of income toward rent. That burden share exceeds the 39.1% shown in Spring city context and is slightly above the 47.5% in Montgomery County context. The figures indicate a difference between a ZIP-wide median-income arithmetic screen and the distribution of renter household circumstances; they do not establish affordability for any particular available unit or household.
Housing composition and vacancy add another constraint on broad interpretations. In the matched ZCTA, the vacancy rate was 3.8% and renters represented 21.4% of occupied homes. The structure mix was led by 12,306 single-family units, alongside 793 units in larger multifamily structures. There were 253 vacant homes classified as for rent. These counts and shares describe the area’s surveyed housing stock rather than a live inventory of comparable rentals, and they do not show unit condition, lease terms, concessions, bedroom count, or whether a listed vacancy is immediately available. A modest aggregate vacancy reading also cannot prove scarcity or pricing power for an individual property.
The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation supplies a separate for-sale market signal. Median sold price was $617,360, up 2.47% year over year; 155 homes sold, with a median 18 days on market. Redfin reported 124 homes of inventory and 2.4 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.41%, while 22.54% of sales closed above list price. These are resale liquidity and pricing indicators, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 4.74% cross-source screening ratio only, not a property-level operating measure or return estimate. The positive resale price change and relatively short marketing time align directionally with the current positive rent reading, but the high resale-price denominator and renter-burden evidence challenge any simple reading of the area as uniformly affordable.
The most important limitations arise where source universes meet. Zillow is an asking-rent index, ACS is a multiyear survey of occupied renter homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is a direct ZIP resale dataset. None substitutes for current unit-level evidence. A property review should verify the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, square footage, lease duration, utility responsibility, deposits, concessions, furnishing status, availability date, and any differences between the home and the rental types represented in the index. For a resale property, separately verify the address-specific condition and transaction terms rather than applying a ZIP median to a particular home. These checks are necessary because neither vacancy, burden, modelled bedroom estimates, nor resale liquidity proves the economics of one unit.
Overall, the evidence shows a ZIP with a high current asking-rent index relative to its ACS gross-rent benchmark, positive but less rapid recent rent history, meaningful historical variability, and a for-sale market whose resale measures remain distinct from rental evidence. Median-income arithmetic is less restrictive than the renter-burden share might suggest, making distributional differences more important than a single ZIP-wide affordability statistic. The useful next question is not whether the area has one definitive rent or value signal, but whether the specific unit’s lease structure and physical characteristics resemble the source universe being used for comparison.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI indicates a current typical asking-rent index of $2,440, while the matched ACS ZCTA reports a lower median gross rent for occupied renter homes. The gap is decision-relevant, but it should not be read as a direct market premium because ACS includes selected utilities and reflects a different, multiyear survey universe.","title":"Current asking rent sits above the occupied-home survey benchmark"},{"body":"The same-month rent history remained positive across the reported horizons, but the shorter-term pace was below the longer-term annualized path. Material monthly-return variability and a meaningful prior drawdown reduce the precision of a one-month reading. The history ranks are discovery tools among eligible ZIPs, not forecasts or property-level signals.","title":"Positive history is paired with uneven monthly movement"},{"body":"The index-based 30% income screen falls below the matched ZCTA’s median household income, yet nearly half of surveyed renter households were rent burdened. This tension means a ZIP-wide median-income comparison cannot substitute for renter-income distribution, actual lease terms, household size, utility obligations, or the affordability circumstances of a particular applicant.","title":"Median-income arithmetic and renter burden point in different directions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show positive annual price movement, completed sales, short marketing time, limited months of supply, and below-list average closing results with some above-list sales. Those measures describe the for-sale market only. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price figure is a cross-source screening ratio and does not measure property operations or returns.","title":"Resale liquidity is supportive context, not rental evidence"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI represents a blended ZIP asking-rent index, so lease terms, utilities, concessions, property type, and bedroom mix can make an individual current listing diverge materially from the published figure.","ACS results describe renter homes in the matched statistical ZCTA over a survey period; margins of error and the different rent definition limit direct comparison with a current asking-rent index.","The backward history shows meaningful movement around its trend, so a single current index reading carries less precision as a short-run indicator and cannot support a projection.","Redfin reports ZIP resale activity rather than rental transactions; sale price, liquidity, and sale-to-list data cannot establish operating costs, a property’s rent, or transaction-level economics."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures cover different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Timing, tenant occupancy, utility treatment, and the mix of homes represented can all create a difference.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The estimates are useful for a structured comparison but are never measured rents for specific available units.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for available apartments?"},{"a":"No. The required-income figure is only arithmetic: annualized ZIP ZORI divided by a 30% income share. It is not financial advice, a landlord screening policy, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual leasing decisions can depend on household income, documentation, deposits, lease terms, utilities, and other property-specific requirements.","q":"Does the 30% required-income figure determine whether someone qualifies for a lease?"},{"a":"Use Redfin’s data only to describe the direct ZIP for-sale market, including sale prices, sales activity, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It cannot serve as rental comparables. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a measure of operating performance or expected return.","q":"How should the resale data be used alongside the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1649.466002},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1607.538231},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1645.991982},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1663.598974},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1739.618628},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1779.145008},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1802.95833},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1823.664627},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1825.347286},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1925.019734},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1928.817173},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1976.680241},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1923.308676},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2342.705729},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2171.775451},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2181.812841},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2237.158414},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2269.808479},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2290.139488},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2235.570113},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2254.530041},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2233.307335},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2275.306869},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2185.944213},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2182.039089},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2194.036833},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2254.316163},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2248.016601},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2215.760651},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2231.798658},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2293.882754},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2321.953983},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2342.808258},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2331.085011},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2343.937284},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2294.077182},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2279.971188},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2267.875959},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2306.788787},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2324.498185},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2334.526498},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2310.505967},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2298.175623},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2297.828922},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2305.711317},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2333.734619},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2349.289775},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2365.38382},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2362.043253},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2361.950051},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2345.571475},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2345.385812},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2355.080377},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2372.323044},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2361.572007},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2370.667961},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2365.989283},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2368.242282},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2359.320234},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2395.925297},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2420.947307},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2439.861823}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":62,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":0.96875,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2361.950051,"endRent":2439.861823,"change":0.03298620644708983,"cagr":0.03298620644708983},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2194.036833,"endRent":2439.861823,"change":0.11204232595488062,"cagr":0.0360334379580276},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1663.598974,"endRent":2439.861823,"change":0.46661657114005894,"cagr":0.07960109791561454}},"maxDrawdown":-0.0729627609153296,"annualizedVolatility":0.06498076436150789,"consecutiveReturnCount":60}}