For ZIP 77386, Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $2,058 per month, down 0.32% from a year earlier. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is not a signed-lease series or a bedroom-specific observation. The matching Census ZCTA reported $1,944 median gross rent in the ACS 2024 five-year survey, making the current asking-rent index 5.9% higher. A ZCTA is a statistical area used by Census and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it should not be substituted for the asking-rent index.
The rent path is cooling relative to its longer record. Zillow history has full 100% coverage across 138 observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns through the stated endpoint. The exact same-month change was -0.32% over one year, versus annualized gains of 0.69% over three years and 2.68% over five years. Monthly changes imply 1.86% annualized variability, which supports more confidence in the stability of a current index reading than a highly erratic series would. Separately, the largest observed peak-to-trough decline was 2.87%, indicating that the historical setback was limited but real. Transparent national discovery ranks place momentum at 2,404th, stability at 62nd, and the balanced measure at 1,437th among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Bedroom figures provide a useful scale, but they are modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder produces estimates of $1,677 for a studio, $1,734 for one bedroom, $2,058 for two bedrooms, $2,773 for three bedrooms, and $3,449 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom modelled estimate is therefore the index anchor, not proof that observed two-bedroom listings rent at that amount. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; the local ladder is used only to distribute the blended ZIP index across bedroom sizes. The modelled two-bedroom figure sits below the corresponding local HUD two-bedroom standard, a source-definition difference rather than evidence about any lease.
The income screen is comparatively less stretched than the renter-burden survey result, creating a central interpretation tension. Applying the arithmetic 30% screen to current monthly ZORI gives required annual income of $82,320, compared with ACS ZCTA median household income of $132,469; annualized asking rent equals 18.6% of that median income. This is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. For wider context, Spring city context rent is about $1,750, Montgomery County context rent is $1,733, and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land metro context rent is $1,648. Those city, county, and metro readings help frame scale, but none is a substitute ZIP rental comp or evidence about a specific 77386 property.
ACS also portrays a predominantly owner-occupied housing base with a meaningful renter segment. The matched ZCTA has an estimated 23,571 housing units, including 21,261 single-family units; 1,054 units were vacant, for a 4.5% overall vacancy rate. Renter-occupied homes numbered 4,434, equal to a 19.7% renter share. Among the surveyed renter households, 1,792, or 40.4%, were reported as paying 30% or more of household income toward gross rent. That burden measure concerns occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes its own sampling uncertainty. Neither the vacancy figure nor the burden share establishes availability, rent, utility treatment, or affordability for a particular unit.
For-sale evidence points in the same cooling direction but remains a separate market universe. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation shows a $418,905 median sold price, down 2.58% year over year, with 309 homes sold and a median 29 days on market. Inventory was 361 homes and months of supply stood at 3.6. The average sale-to-list ratio was 97.73%, while 12.01% of homes sold above list price. These are ZIP resale observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price produces a 5.9% cross-source screening ratio; it is only a price-to-rent screen and cannot represent operating costs, financing, property condition, or transaction-specific economics.
The principal tension is not a simple rent-versus-sale verdict. The one-year ZORI decline and lower resale median price are directionally consistent with cooling, while the longer ZORI history still contains positive three- and five-year annualized changes and unusually strong historical stability. Meanwhile, median-income arithmetic looks less constrained than the reported renter burden share, showing why a ZIP-wide household-income comparison and an occupied-renter survey cannot answer the same question. The resale marketing and sale-to-list signals further challenge any reading of the current rent index as a stand-alone indicator of market strength. A current rent snapshot is useful as an index level, but its decision value rises only when its source boundaries and recent direction are kept visible.
Important limits remain. ZORI does not identify property type, concessions, lease duration, utility responsibility, unit condition, or available inventory; ACS is a ZCTA survey rather than a delivery-ZIP listing feed; HUD standards are administrative; and Redfin describes only completed ZIP resale activity. Concrete property-level checks would need to confirm the address’s ZIP treatment, advertised rent, bedroom count, selected utilities paid by the tenant, concessions, lease terms, and current availability. A resale comparison would also require property-specific closed-sale evidence and listing history rather than the ZIP median alone. Which of those unit-level facts would materially change the interpretation of the index, burden survey, and resale screen?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI was $2,058 in June 2026 and declined 0.32% year over year. That recent result breaks from positive annualized three- and five-year history, but the series had low measured variability, a limited maximum drawdown, and a high stability discovery rank. The evidence supports describing the recent direction as cooling, not as a forecast of a continuing decline.","title":"Cooling current rent, steadier long history"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled by scaling the blended ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured asking rents for listings in each bedroom category. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative benchmark, while Zillow ZORI is a typical asking-rent index. Their comparison is informative about source definitions, not proof of a market rent for a particular unit.","title":"Bedroom rents are modelled from two distinct inputs"},{"body":"The 30% screen places annual income required for current ZORI below the ZCTA median household income, yet 40.4% of surveyed renter households reported gross-rent burdens at or above 30% of income. The apparent conflict is expected because the income screen uses a current blended asking-rent index and all-household median income, while ACS measures occupied renter homes across five survey years.","title":"Income arithmetic and renter burden do not answer the same question"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale data showed a lower median sold price year over year, sub-list average sale pricing, and a minority of sales above list. Those facts are directionally consistent with the recent ZORI decline. They remain for-sale indicators only. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price calculation is a cross-source screening ratio and does not measure expenses, financing, net income, or property-level returns.","title":"Resale evidence confirms cooling but is not rental economics"}],"risks":["The ZCTA match is statistical rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, so ACS population, income, tenure, vacancy, and burden results may not align exactly with the address coverage of a rental listing or property record.","Bedroom estimates are constructed from a blended asking-rent index and a HUD ladder. A unit’s actual asking rent can differ because the packet does not identify property type, condition, utilities, concessions, availability, or lease terms.","The historical series is complete and relatively stable, but its cooling classification and past drawdown describe observed history only. They do not establish future rent direction, future demand, or future resale outcomes.","Vacancy and renter-burden figures are aggregate ACS measures of the matched ZCTA. They cannot prove that a specific vacant unit is rentable, that a specific renter is burdened, or that a listed home will transact near ZIP medians."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes and periods. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. The difference therefore does not identify an error or a change in any individual lease.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI higher than ACS median gross rent here?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the blended Zillow ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent feed. The resulting figures are useful for proportional screening but cannot substitute for current listings or executed leases for the relevant bedroom count.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents for studios through four-bedroom units?"},{"a":"The complete observation record, low annualized variability, and limited historical maximum drawdown indicate that the series has moved relatively steadily in the past. That improves confidence that the current index is not simply an isolated erratic reading. However, the recent one-year decline differs from the longer positive path, so the snapshot should be interpreted with its cooling context rather than extended into a forecast.","q":"What does the history say about confidence in the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s ZIP median sold price from a direct rolling-three-month resale observation. It is only a cross-source screening ratio that places current asking-rent scale beside typical completed-sale pricing. Because it excludes expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy at a property, concessions, and property-specific characteristics, it does not describe rental profitability or expected outcomes.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-price screen be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area 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