Rent and resale are sending different near-term signals in ZIP 77479. In June 2026, Zillow’s Observed Rent Index is $2,208 per month. This is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quoted rent for a specified address, lease, or bedroom count. The five-digit Zillow market label also matches a Census ZCTA; however, a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That boundary and source distinction matters when comparing this asking-rent signal with survey, administrative, and resale evidence.
The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation presents a firmer for-sale backdrop than the rent trend alone might suggest. Redfin reports a $578,059 median sold price, up 2.9% year over year, with 239 homes sold and a median 25 days on market. Inventory was 319 homes while active listings totaled 658, and months of supply stood at 4.1. The average sale-to-list ratio was 97.27%, 12.94% of sales closed above list, and 37.02% went off market within two weeks. These are ZIP resale-market signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price produces a 4.6% cross-source screening ratio only, rather than a property-level performance measure. Rising resale prices therefore challenge a simple reading of the cooling rent series.
Comparisons require separate evidence universes. The matched ACS ZCTA five-year survey places median gross rent at $2,063; it covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike Zillow’s asking-rent index. HUD’s local two-bedroom fair-market-rent standard is $2,360, an administrative bedroom-specific benchmark rather than asking rent. For wider context only, Sugar Land city-context rent is $2,065, Fort Bend County context rent is $1,991, and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX metro-context rent is $1,648. The ZIP asking index is above the ACS gross-rent median but below the HUD two-bedroom standard, illustrating why none of these series should be treated as interchangeable market quotes.
The bedroom figures are modelled estimates produced by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder; they are not measured bedroom rents. That method produces estimates of $1,796 for a studio, $1,852 for one bedroom, $2,208 for two bedrooms, $2,966 for three bedrooms, and $3,705 for four bedrooms. The underlying HUD ladder runs from $1,920 for a studio to $3,960 for four bedrooms. Its role is to impose a locally structured bedroom relationship on the blended Zillow index. An actual listing can differ because its bedroom count, property type, lease terms, included utilities, condition, and concessions may not match the ZIP-wide blend or the HUD-derived scaling pattern.
The required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Applying a 30% rent-to-income threshold to the current asking-rent index implies $88,320 in annual income. The matched ZCTA’s median household income is $156,735, and the mechanical annual asking-rent-to-income comparison is 16.9%. Those figures describe broad distributional context rather than the circumstances of a renter household. ACS also reports that 46.9% of renter households pay at least thirty percent of income toward gross rent. That burden measure includes occupied renters in the survey universe and does not establish affordability, burden, or eligibility for a particular unit.
The matched ZCTA ACS housing base is predominantly single-family. Of 31,067 housing units, 27,899 are single-family and 2,007 are in large multifamily structures. The survey counts 29,862 occupied units and 1,205 vacant units, producing a 3.9% vacancy rate. Renter occupancy totals 5,161 households, or 17.3% of occupied homes, which frames the rent index as a signal within a largely owner-occupied stock. Of the vacant units, 417 are designated for rent. That count is not proof that a particular rental is available, comparable, or vacant, but it does distinguish units classified for rent from the broader stock of vacant housing.
History supports the cooling label but does not make a forecast. Exact same-month ZORI change was a 1.0% decline over one year, breaking from the positive three-year annualized pace of 0.47% and the five-year annualized pace of 2.37%. Monthly rent returns had annualized variability of 2.36%, which suggests relatively limited month-to-month movement in the observed index. Separately, the series experienced a 5.67% maximum peak-to-trough drawdown, showing that contained typical variation did not eliminate meaningful downward episodes. Coverage is 100% across 138 observations, strengthening confidence in the continuity of this historical snapshot while not turning it into an address-level forecast. Transparent national discovery ranks were 2,541 for momentum, 470 for stability, and 1,883 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher, and these are descriptive discovery tools rather than investment signals.
The central decision tension is therefore not resolved by any single statistic: asking-rent history has recently softened, while ZIP resale prices increased and the resale market recorded active transaction flow. Zillow does not report a property-specific lease, ACS does not measure current asking rents, HUD does not provide market asking-rent quotes, and Redfin does not describe rental transactions. A property-level review would need the actual advertised rent, verified bedroom count, lease duration, included utilities, concessions, available date, property condition, and whether the address falls within the relevant market geography. Which of those property-specific facts would explain a listing’s departure from the broad ZIP index?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June ZIP index is a broad typical asking-rent signal, not a contract rent for a specified home. The exact same-month history shows a recent decline after positive longer annualized paths, making the cooling label evidence-based but backward-looking. Complete monthly coverage and relatively contained variability support use of the index as a market snapshot, while the prior drawdown and type blending limit address-level precision.","title":"Cooling rent history contrasts with current resale strength"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP observation records sale prices, transaction count, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. Those figures indicate active resale liquidity and price appreciation, but they are not rental transactions, rental comparables, or evidence of operating economics. The contrast between higher resale pricing and a softer rent index is a meaningful screening tension rather than proof of a future market outcome.","title":"Resale indicators remain in a distinct for-sale universe"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI measures a blended typical asking-rent index across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey result for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD fair market rent is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The ZIP modelled bedroom ladder uses the HUD relationship to scale ZORI, so it is useful for structured comparison but must not be read as measured asking rent by bedroom.","title":"Three rent benchmarks answer different questions"},{"body":"The matched ZCTA has a relatively small renter share within predominantly single-family housing, yet the ACS burden measure shows that a substantial share of renter households spend at least thirty percent of income on gross rent. Broad median income and required-income arithmetic provide context, not household underwriting. Vacancy and renter-burden statistics cannot establish the availability or affordability of any specific rental address.","title":"Owner-heavy stock does not eliminate renter affordability pressure"}],"risks":["ZORI is blended across rental types, so a particular property’s bedroom count, condition, included utilities, lease structure, and concessions can depart materially from the ZIP index.","ACS figures are survey estimates for a matched statistical area, include margins of error, and represent occupied renter homes rather than current advertised rents or USPS delivery boundaries.","Redfin resale measures describe sold homes and listing-market behavior over a rolling period; they do not establish rental demand, property operating costs, or terms for a particular lease.","Historical rent changes, variability, drawdown, and discovery ranks are backward-looking measurements. They cannot determine future rent movement, resale prices, household affordability, or an individual property outcome."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. HUD fair market rent is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard. Differences therefore do not automatically indicate an error or a pricing opportunity.","q":"Why do Zillow, ACS, and HUD show different rent figures?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the blended Zillow asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They provide a consistent bedroom structure for screening, but they are not measured rents from active listings, executed leases, or a defined property type.","q":"Are the bedroom rent amounts observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"The one-year decline breaks from the positive three-year and five-year annualized paths, supporting a cooling classification for the latest period. It does not erase the longer history or predict the next move. Full coverage improves confidence that the history was continuously observed, while the drawdown shows that rents have previously moved downward.","q":"What does the recent rent decline mean in the context of the longer history?"},{"a":"Use it as a separate ZIP for-sale observation. Median sold price, homes sold, market time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list indicators describe resale conditions rather than rental transactions. The annualized rent-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screening ratio. Address-level comparisons require actual rent, sale details, property condition, utility treatment, and lease terms.","q":"How should the resale data be used alongside the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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