ZIP 78045 presents a split screen between a still-rising asking-rent index and a comparatively measured resale market. Zillow ZORI for June 2026 is $1,427, a 1.1% increase from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-level quote for any particular home. Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation reports a $298,383 median sold price, down 0.2% year over year. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that sold-price median equals 5.7%, but this is only a cross-source screening ratio; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or measure of property-level economics.
The rent record remains positive over longer backward-looking intervals, but its pace has cooled. Exact same-month ZORI changes annualize to 1.1% over one year, 3.1% over three years, and 4.7% over five years. Thus, the current reading confirms the longer upward direction while breaking from its faster longer-run pace. Monthly index movement produces an annualized variability measure of 4.7%, so one current rent snapshot deserves less confidence than a smooth trend line might imply. The prior peak-to-trough maximum drawdown was 10.2%, another indication that the historical path included meaningful reversals. History contains 91 observations with 97.8% coverage. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,499 for momentum, 2,788 for stability, and 2,416 for the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher. These are retrospective measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Resale liquidity and pricing signals provide the main counterweight to the rent-history record. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation logged 87 homes sold with a median marketing time of 70 days. It also shows 350 active listings, inventory of 198 homes, and 6.9 months of supply. No reported sales closed above list price, while 1.2% of listings went off market within two weeks. These are resale-market observations, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or evidence about a landlord’s attainable rent. The supply, marketing-time, and pricing signals challenge any simple reading of positive ZORI growth as uniformly strong market evidence: rent has risen modestly, while sale-price and sale-to-list signals remain restrained.
The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the matched ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent is $1,420 for occupied renter homes. That measure includes selected utilities and is not the same universe as Zillow’s asking-rent index; its survey uncertainty also differs from an observed index. The current ZORI sits 0.5% above that ACS median, a narrow numerical difference that does not make the two measures interchangeable. HUD’s local two-bedroom standard is $1,161, placing ZORI 22.9% above it. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and therefore cannot substitute for a current advertised-rent measure.
The bedroom view is modelled rather than measured. It scales ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder, producing modelled monthly estimates of $1,175 for a studio, $1,182 for one bedroom, $1,427 for two bedrooms, $1,842 for three bedrooms, and $1,906 for four bedrooms. The underlying HUD ladder runs from $956 at the studio end to $1,551 for four bedrooms, with $1,161 for two bedrooms. Because the calculation inherits ZIP-wide ZORI and HUD’s relative bedroom pattern, it does not identify actual asking rents for units of those sizes. Lease terms, utilities, furnishing, condition, concessions, and the individual address can all make a listed unit differ from these modelled estimates.
The required-income screen is arithmetic rather than advice or an applicant qualification rule. Applying a 30% gross-income share to the current ZORI produces $57,080 in annual required income. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $90,608, and annualized ZORI is 18.9% of that area-wide income figure. Neither comparison establishes what an individual renter earns, pays, or can afford. The burden measure adds a separate distributional lens: 50.6% of ACS renter households report paying 30% or more of income toward gross rent. Since ACS gross rent includes selected utilities and reports occupied renter homes, that burden share cannot prove rent stress, vacancy, affordability, or utility costs at a particular available unit.
Housing composition also frames the limits of ZIP-wide readings. The matched ACS ZCTA contains 22,112 housing units, with an overall vacancy rate of 4.5% and a renter share of 21.1%. Single-family structures account for 18,327 units, compared with 1,256 units in larger multifamily buildings. This stock profile does not show which homes are currently available, which are rented, or what a vacant property would lease for. Overall vacancy includes multiple vacancy statuses rather than only units offered for rent. Likewise, the renter share is a household-tenure statistic, not a measure of rental demand for a specific bedroom type or an indication that a particular listing will remain available.
For wider rent context, the Laredo city value is $1,330.94, the Webb County value is $1,331, and the Laredo, TX metro value is $1,331; these are respectively city, county, and metro comparators rather than direct ZIP observations. ZIP ZORI is above each broader benchmark, yet the restrained resale evidence and high-variability rent history keep that difference from resolving the decision tension. Useful property-level checks are the exact address geography, current advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease duration, concessions, condition, listing activity, and comparable nearby sold homes. Those checks test whether a specific unit resembles the ZIP index and whether a specific home resembles the rolling resale statistics, without converting area aggregates into claims about that property.
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow ZORI reading is above its year-earlier level, but the one-year annualized change is slower than the corresponding three-year and five-year changes. That pattern preserves a positive long-run direction while signaling a softer recent pace. Historical variability and the prior drawdown mean the present index is informative, but it is not a stable stand-alone representation of every current asking rent.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but has decelerated"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a slightly lower median sold price year over year, extended marketing time, substantial active listings, and months of supply near a balanced-to-looser resale reading. The absence of above-list sales reinforces that caution. These are for-sale observations only, but they challenge any conclusion that modest asking-rent growth alone captures the full local housing-market picture.","title":"Resale conditions temper the rent signal"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to ZIP ZORI. They provide a consistent relative-size framework, but they are not measured advertised rents or signed leases. A particular unit can diverge because of utilities, furnishing, lease terms, concessions, condition, structure type, and address-specific supply.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled estimates, not observed rents"},{"body":"The required-income calculation converts the ZIP asking-rent index into a gross-income screen at a fixed share of income. ACS median household income and the burden share are separate area-wide survey measures. They help describe broad affordability tension, but neither identifies an applicant’s income nor establishes that any particular vacant unit is affordable or unaffordable.","title":"Area income metrics and renter burden describe different populations"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is blended across rental types and represents a typical asking-rent index, so it may not match a specific property’s current advertised rent, included utilities, lease term, or concessions.","ACS figures describe a matched ZCTA through a five-year survey period, while a ZCTA is statistical geography rather than an exact USPS delivery ZIP and includes survey uncertainty.","The resale data are rolling-three-month ZIP observations for homes sold, listings, supply, and sale pricing. They are not rental transactions, operating statements, or evidence of a property’s income.","Overall vacancy and renter burden are area aggregates across households and vacancy categories. They cannot establish availability, tenant demand, payment stress, or utility expenses for a particular listing."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Similar dollar levels can be useful context, but the populations, timing, construction, and utility treatment differ, so they should not be treated as interchangeable.","q":"Why can Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent be close without meaning they are the same rent measure?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled estimates that scale the ZIP-wide Zillow ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD values are administrative bedroom-specific standards rather than asking rents. The model supplies a relative-size framework, but it does not observe advertised rents, signed leases, concessions, or characteristics of individual units.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual asking rents for studios through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"It is a simple arithmetic screen: annualize the current ZIP asking-rent index and divide by a thirty-percent gross-income share. It is not financial advice, a tenant recommendation, or an applicant qualification rule. Household income can vary materially from the ACS median, and a property’s utilities, concessions, and lease terms can change actual monthly cost.","q":"What does the required-income screen show?"},{"a":"Use it as a separate for-sale-market lens. Median sold price, marketing time, homes sold, active listings, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list signals describe direct ZIP resale activity, not rental transactions. The annualized ZORI-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screening ratio and cannot establish net income, expenses, financing effects, or property-level return.","q":"How should the Redfin resale evidence be used with the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":953.38959},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":955.300323},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":960.673213},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":956.264606},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":951.964235},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":971.159654},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1021.298215},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1045.174627},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1039.103447},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1026.485412},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1037.048831},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1045.309263},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":992.112572},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":964.277068},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":938.606431},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":967.308386},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":956.313373},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1067.666573},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1069.301049},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1080.882392},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1103.242589},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1097.92142},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1101.50027},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1117.975355},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1132.471998},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1123.824362},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1100.874244},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1085.126506},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1096.432063},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1108.736882},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1127.845346},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1135.296411},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1149.907895},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1175.128093},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1202.389144},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1223.890541},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1223.976038},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1217.508535},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1200.047015},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1213.157308},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1217.779062},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1231.016731},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1246.557264},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1258.732013},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1263.604969},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1248.866088},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1239.542701},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1246.126815},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1254.908193},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1276.493652},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1284.297077},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1299.153456},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1306.391359},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1315.352604},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1301.769688},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1302.941475},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1316.102125},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1345.078591},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1346.403048},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1332.868168},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1312.77848},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1327.130046},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1339.663302},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1371.678583},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1361.09144},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1360.998469},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1355.713868},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1364.402705},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1371.322789},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1368.842719},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1379.136199},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1390.88349},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1404.487725},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1387.848314},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1380.646353},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1376.829195},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1390.184685},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1404.762834},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1414.413096},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1412.081878},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1409.129397},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1408.709947},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1410.558367},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1414.99034},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1421.065856},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1430.080026},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1435.751516},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1427.008189},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1420.397527},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1424.292839},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1427.144444}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":91,"firstPeriod":"2018-10-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":93,"coverageRatio":0.978494623655914,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1412.081878,"endRent":1427.144444,"change":0.010666921114612649,"cagr":0.010666921114612649},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1302.941475,"endRent":1427.144444,"change":0.09532505594696805,"cagr":0.030815659542463125},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1135.296411,"endRent":1427.144444,"change":0.25706769630578874,"cagr":0.04681932939128619}},"maxDrawdown":-0.102077763755548,"annualizedVolatility":0.04719255139323696,"consecutiveReturnCount":88}}