The strongest tension is a current cooling pattern that sits beside a still-positive long path. At Zillow’s June 2026 endpoint, ZORI for this ZIP is $1,580. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is an index rather than a quote for a particular home. Its exact same-month change is -2.51% over one year and -1.86% annualized over three years, versus +0.57% annualized over five years. Recent direction thus confirms the short- and medium-term decline while breaking from the longer positive path. Annualized monthly-return variability is 2.20%, and the maximum historical drawdown is -6.55%; these movements lower the confidence warranted in any one current-rent snapshot. History has 100% coverage. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,839 for momentum, 292 for stability, and 2,079 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher. All are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
That asking-rent observation belongs beside, not inside, other source universes. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS median gross rent is $1,659; ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI is 95.2% of that median, but the difference is not a like-for-like price gap because periods, population, and rent definition differ. Here, 78130 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For wider context only, New Braunfels city’s context rent is $1,563, Comal County’s county-context rent is $1,534, and the San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX metro’s context rent is $1,416. Those city, county, and metro values contextualize the ZIP; they do not replace its ZIP-level index.
Bedroom context creates a different, explicitly modelled comparison. The local HUD ladder scales ZIP ZORI to modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,190 for a studio, $1,307 for one bedroom, $1,580 for two bedrooms, $2,029 for three bedrooms, and $2,360 for four bedrooms. The underlying local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is $1,220, $1,340, $1,620, $2,080, and $2,420 in the same sequence. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The estimates preserve HUD’s local size relationship while anchoring it to ZORI; they are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. A property can therefore depart from the ladder through terms or characteristics not reported by these area measures.
Affordability indicators point to aggregate pressure rather than a tenant-level verdict. The 30% required-income screen converts the current ZORI to $63,200 in annual income; it is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS survey, 6,831 of 13,911 renter households report gross-rent burden at or above the same rent-to-income share threshold, or 49.1%. The burden counts, like other ACS estimates, are survey estimates with reported margins of error and do not identify a household’s earnings, lease terms, or housing choice. Nor does an area burden share prove a particular unit is affordable, unaffordable, or suitable for any applicant. The useful reading is that current asking-index arithmetic and historical occupied-household burden answer different questions.
Stock and vacancy add another boundary on inference. The matched ZCTA contains 44,789 housing units, of which 4,042 are vacant, yielding a 9.0% vacancy rate. Its stock is weighted toward single-family units, with a smaller large-multifamily segment, and renter-occupied homes form a minority of occupied housing. Vacancy is not a count of immediately leaseable listings: the evidence separately recognizes vacancies associated with rent, sale, and seasonal use. It cannot show the condition, price, bedroom count, concession, or availability of a selected property. Likewise, a housing mix is descriptive of the area’s units, not evidence that a particular building has a given rental experience.
The comparison has clear practical limits. The Zillow index does not disclose the advertised base rent, exact property type, unit condition, or contract terms behind any individual observation; the ACS survey does not serve as a live listing feed; and HUD standards do not establish a landlord’s asking price. Before comparing a property with any benchmark here, the concrete record to check is its advertised base rent, bedroom count, lease duration, concessions, recurring fees, utility responsibility, availability date, occupied or vacant status, and the location used by the listing. Confirm whether those details describe the same rental obligation as the benchmark. This prevents a gross-rent survey value, an administrative standard, or an area index from being mistaken for a property-specific quote.
Taken together, the evidence is strongest on scope and direction, not on a particular unit’s price. Recent cooling is measured against a longer history that remains slightly positive, and the stability discovery rank is materially stronger than the momentum and balanced ranks. That mix, together with documented variability, supports using the current ZORI as a bounded market reference rather than a standalone conclusion. The ACS figure supplies occupied-household gross-rent context, the HUD ladder supplies an administrative size pattern, and wider geographies supply context only. None verifies a listing. Does the candidate property’s published rent and terms genuinely match the scope of the benchmark being used?
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP-level Zillow asking-rent index has declined on the reported recent same-month comparisons while the five-year comparison remains positive. That split is the central historical tension. Full historical coverage supports the calculation, but volatility, drawdown, and lower-is-better discovery ranks are descriptive only. They do not predict lease outcomes, future rent movement, or investment performance.","title":"Cooling path versus long-run gain"},{"body":"Zillow, ACS, and HUD answer different questions. Zillow represents a blended ZIP asking-rent index; ACS summarizes occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities; HUD provides administrative bedroom standards. The ZCTA is statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. Comparisons frame range and scope, not interchangeable prices.","title":"Cross-source measures are not interchangeable"},{"body":"The reported studio-through-four-bedroom estimates are created by scaling the ZIP Zillow index with the local HUD ladder. This preserves the local HUD bedroom pattern while anchoring the result to the blended asking-rent index. It does not establish actual bedroom-specific advertised rents, lease terms, concessions, fees, utility allocations, or availability for a particular property.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled, not observed"},{"body":"Required income at the stated rent threshold is arithmetic, whereas burden and vacancy are aggregate indicators. ACS burden counts concern surveyed occupied renter households, and vacancy counts cover categories beyond units actively offered for rent. The housing mix and renter share describe the matched ZCTA’s stock composition; neither establishes affordability, vacancy, condition, or availability at a specific address.","title":"Aggregate affordability and stock indicators"}],"risks":["ZORI reflects typical observed asking rents blended across rental types; it may not match a particular advertised unit, concessions, lease term, fees, utilities, availability, or tenant-paid obligations.","ACS is a five-year survey with margins of error for the matched ZCTA, and its median gross rent covers occupied renter homes with selected utilities rather than contemporaneous advertised rents.","HUD FMR or SAFMR values are administrative bedroom-specific standards, not observed asking rents, and derived bedroom figures can diverge from a property’s listed base rent, fees, concessions, or utility allocation.","Vacancy, renter burden, and housing-stock statistics are area-level aggregates; they cannot prove that a particular home is rentable, vacant, affordable to an applicant, available on a given date, or comparable in condition."],"qa":[{"a":"They represent different evidence universes. Zillow is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. The ZCTA is statistical geography, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP, so the gap is not a like-for-like price comparison.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent index below the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates produced by scaling the current Zillow index according to the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD’s FMR or SAFMR values are administrative bedroom-specific standards rather than asking-rent observations. The outputs therefore organize a benchmark by bedroom size but do not report listings, executed leases, or property-specific terms.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured asking rents?"},{"a":"Recent same-month measurements show cooling, while the longest measured interval remains positive. The current direction therefore aligns with the shorter decline and departs from the longer path. Complete coverage improves continuity of the record, but volatility and maximum drawdown show that the index has moved materially. These backward-looking statistics neither forecast future rents nor support an investment recommendation.","q":"What does the history say about the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"Use them only as area-level context. Vacancy includes more than units offered for rent, and rent burden summarizes surveyed renter households rather than a property’s tenant pool. Neither measure proves availability, affordability, condition, or qualification for a particular unit. Verify advertised rent, all fees, utilities, concessions, bedroom count, lease term, and availability directly from property-level materials.","q":"How should vacancy and rent burden be used when reviewing a listing?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1218.095439},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1230.512636},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1230.437824},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1229.364496},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1222.940551},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1225.128942},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1227.072094},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1228.490117},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1232.930843},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1239.075355},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1241.233388},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1233.748426},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1235.494786},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1238.983613},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1247.900901},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1242.632219},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1243.240306},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1245.296662},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1255.234561},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1254.368844},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1258.494892},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1256.483516},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1266.6431},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1272.527399},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1273.183944},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1267.912407},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1268.002642},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1278.845637},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1291.44611},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1293.955841},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1290.417388},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1289.213747},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1281.981579},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1292.41213},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1297.894315},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1319.556192},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1319.038585},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1322.087815},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1315.010399},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1318.389235},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1316.876765},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1320.069033},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1318.101033},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1326.013151},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1333.63259},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1330.817984},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1320.225754},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1309.022591},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1316.375088},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1325.221215},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1334.793144},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1334.392639},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1336.10664},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1338.552646},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1346.348815},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1347.832131},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1351.685257},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1356.320905},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1367.412407},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1372.734137},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1375.660395},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1377.22471},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1384.277263},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1375.786143},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1363.628014},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1356.682923},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1368.09211},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1374.425683},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1375.048783},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1381.571431},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1389.06},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1420.324501},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1432.628516},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1437.253481},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1441.590115},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1463.642714},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1504.195136},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1535.006308},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1562.368173},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1587.262374},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1619.064167},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1634.967405},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1646.50607},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1638.073834},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1648.438176},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1663.33239},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1678.680219},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1689.478786},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1678.396463},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1682.782226},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1680.825642},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1690.244637},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1683.70841},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1678.511632},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1670.697153},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1674.749316},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1674.24022},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1675.800176},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1676.591469},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1675.938609},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1683.298778},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1670.9911},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1663.157851},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1655.268337},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1660.265946},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1666.747204},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1671.618728},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1662.845259},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1659.6885},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1651.962249},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1649.570149},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1639.163056},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1631.854771},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1637.973394},{"period":"2024-07-01","re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