At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 78218 was $1,386, down 6.66% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease ledger or a single-property quotation. The most immediate tension is that the direct Redfin rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation showed a $234,947 median sold price, up 7.77% year over year, while the asking-rent index was cooling. Its 6.8 months of supply and 96.58% average sale-to-list ratio also belong entirely to the for-sale market. They are not evidence about rental transactions, landlord revenue, or a specific home’s lease terms.
The rental history supports a cooling reading, but it is not uniformly negative across every horizon. The one-year same-month change was -6.66%, following a -0.79% annualized change across three years; both measures contrast with a 2.16% annualized gain across five years. In other words, recent direction breaks from the longer positive path, rather than confirming it. Coverage was 99.17%, so the history is nearly complete. Monthly ZORI changes showed 3.04% annualized variability, which argues against treating one current index point as unusually precise. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 9.91%, documenting a meaningful historical retreat from a prior peak. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,858 for momentum and 1,690 for stability, where a lower rank is higher; these are backward-looking discovery tools, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey, median gross rent was $1,215, placing the current Zillow asking-rent index 14.07% higher. That survey describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it should not be substituted for ZORI. HUD’s FY2026 local two-bedroom standard was $1,320; it is an administrative, bedroom-specific benchmark rather than asking rent. For wider context only, the San Antonio city rent context was $1,381.64, the Bexar County rent context was $1,389, and the San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX metro rent context was $1,416. These are broader-area comparisons, not ZIP rental comps.
The bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They indicate about $1,050 for a studio, $1,386 for a two-bedroom home, and $2,068 for a four-bedroom home. These are not measured bedroom rents, and they do not establish what any available unit is advertised for. The HUD ladder supplies the relative bedroom shape, while ZORI supplies the ZIP-level rent anchor; HUD itself remains an administrative standard, not a record of prevailing asking rents. This approach is useful for comparing bedroom scale within the ZIP, but it cannot capture building age, included utilities, furnishing, concessions, lease length, condition, or other unit-specific differences.
The arithmetic income screen is close to the ACS household-income benchmark but should be read cautiously. Applying a 30% share of gross income to the $1,386 ZORI produces required annual income of $55,440. ACS median household income was $57,285, and the index-to-income calculation equals 29.03%. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The occupied-renter survey adds a different pressure signal: 54.53% of the 4,294 measured renter households out of 7,874 reported spending at least the burden threshold on gross rent. Because that measure uses occupied homes, survey income, and gross rent with selected utilities, it cannot prove that a particular advertised apartment is affordable or burdensome.
The ACS ZCTA counted 16,121 housing units, including 928 vacant units, for a 5.76% vacancy rate. Renter occupancy represented more than half of occupied housing, while the stock was predominantly single-family rather than large multifamily. Most vacant units were classified for rent, but that category is not proof that a comparable unit is immediately available, competitively priced, habitable, or suitable for a particular household. Vacancy and tenure figures describe the surveyed area’s housing stock at a point in time; they do not identify concessions, turnover timing, occupied condition, or the rent on any individual home.
Resale liquidity is mixed rather than uniformly strong. Redfin recorded 55 homes sold in its direct rolling resale window, and the median marketing time was also 55 days. The listing, inventory, pending-sale, supply, and sale-to-list measures in that block all describe ZIP for-sale activity only. The price increase therefore challenges the rent-history cooling signal, while the below-list sale-to-list result and elevated supply temper a simple strength reading. Annualizing ZIP ZORI and dividing it by the median sold price produces a 7.08% cross-source screening ratio only. It does not incorporate operating costs, financing, taxes, insurance, vacancy, property condition, or the match between a sold home and a rental unit.
The evidence is strongest when each source remains in its own universe: Zillow for typical asking-rent direction, ACS for surveyed occupied households and burden, HUD for administrative bedroom standards, and Redfin for direct ZIP resale activity. Before relying on any property-level conclusion, verify the live advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, fees, concessions, lease duration, availability date, property type, condition, and whether the unit matches the index’s blended rental mix. For a sale comparison, confirm the closing date, list history, physical attributes, and whether nearby sold homes are genuinely comparable. The remaining decision question is whether a specific available rental or resale property actually resembles the broad ZIP measures described here.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI was $1,386 in June 2026 and declined 6.66% over one year. The direct ZIP resale median sold price rose 7.77% to $234,947 over the same broad period. This divergence means resale appreciation should not be used as confirmation that current asking rents are rising. The two measures observe different markets and different transaction types.","title":"Asking rents are cooling despite higher resale prices"},{"body":"The matched ACS ZCTA reported $1,215 median gross rent in its 2024 five-year survey, versus a $1,386 Zillow asking-rent index. The difference is material, but it is not a contradiction: ACS describes occupied renter homes and selected utilities, while ZORI is a blended observed asking-rent index. A ZCTA is statistical geography, not a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"The asking-rent index exceeds surveyed gross rent"},{"body":"The arithmetic income amount associated with paying 30% of gross income toward current ZORI is $55,440, near the ACS median household income of $57,285. Yet 54.53% of surveyed renter households were burdened at or above the threshold. The screen is a broad calculation, whereas burden reflects occupied households with varied incomes, rents, utilities, and housing circumstances.","title":"Income screen and renter burden point in different directions"},{"body":"Bedroom figures are modelled by applying the local HUD ladder to ZIP ZORI, not by observing bedroom-specific asking rents. Redfin’s homes-sold, marketing-time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list measures are direct ZIP resale evidence, not rental comps. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio and omits property-specific costs and characteristics.","title":"Bedroom and resale figures require disciplined interpretation"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index, so it may not match the rent for a particular building, lease term, bedroom layout, utility package, or condition level currently available to a renter.","ACS measures surveyed occupied renter homes across a five-year period and carries sampling uncertainty, making it unsuitable as a current asking-rent quote or proof of affordability for an individual household.","HUD bedroom standards are administrative benchmarks rather than observed market rents; scaling ZORI with them creates modelled estimates that can differ from live listings for any specific bedroom category.","Redfin resale signals describe homes offered and sold in the for-sale market. They should not be treated as evidence of rental demand, unit-level cash flow, tenant availability, or future rent movement."],"qa":[{"a":"The Zillow figure is ZIP-level ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for tracking asking-rent direction, but it is not a lease transaction database, a bedroom-specific rent survey, or a quote for a particular available home.","q":"What does the Zillow rent figure measure?"},{"a":"No. The income screen simply divides the current ZIP asking-rent index by the stated gross-income share. It is arithmetic rather than advice, underwriting, or an applicant qualification standard. Actual qualification can depend on many property-specific terms not contained in this packet.","q":"Does the income screen determine whether someone qualifies for a rental?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled estimates that scale the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They provide a consistent relative bedroom framework, but they are not observed asking rents and cannot replace checking live listings with matching unit features.","q":"Are the bedroom rents directly measured in this ZIP?"},{"a":"Redfin provides a direct rolling ZIP resale observation covering sold prices, sales activity, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. Those measures can frame the for-sale market tension against asking-rent history, but they do not document rental transactions or rental-property economics.","q":"What can the Redfin block tell a reader about rentals?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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