ZIP 78232’s current rent signal is cooling, but its longer trajectory is not uniformly weak. Zillow ZORI, a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, is $1,226 at the stated endpoint. Its exact same-month one-year change is -6.8%, whereas the five-year annualized change remains +1.5%. That contrast makes the current decline meaningful while stopping short of treating a single reading as a complete account of local rents. The key measured tension is a recent reset inside a still-positive multiyear record, with the current index providing an asking-rent benchmark rather than a lease-specific quote or a measure of all renter households.
The one-year, three-year, and five-year history measures point in different directions: one-year movement was -6.8%, three-year annualized movement was -3.0%, and five-year annualized movement was +1.5%. Recent direction therefore breaks from the longer positive path and extends the intermediate cooling pattern. Coverage is complete across 64 monthly observations, which supports continuity of the record. Monthly-return variability was 3.1%, suggesting the index has not been exceptionally erratic, but the maximum drawdown of -8.6% shows that a current snapshot still deserves moderate confidence rather than certainty. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,899 for momentum, 1,727 for stability, and 2,756 for the balanced measure. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the two datasets should be treated as a geographic match rather than interchangeable records. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent for occupied renter homes was $1,449, with a $50 margin of error; gross rent includes selected utilities. That figure is 15.4% above Zillow’s asking-rent index. The gap is expected to be informative rather than contradictory because ACS describes occupied renter homes over a survey period, while ZORI tracks a typical observed asking-rent index across currently observed rental offerings.
The bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder produces monthly estimates of $923 for a studio, $1,012 for one bedroom, $1,226 for two bedrooms, $1,573 for three bedrooms, and $1,832 for four bedrooms. The HUD two-bedroom standard is $1,660, making the modelled two-bedroom estimate 26.1% lower. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and it should not be read as proof of what an available unit commands. The ladder is useful for internally consistent sizing of the ZIP index, but property condition, included utilities, lease terms, and exact unit configuration remain outside this model.
Housing and income data add a separate affordability and stock lens. The matched ZCTA contains 16,587 housing units, including 10,032 single-family units and 2,410 units in large multifamily structures. Renters account for 44.1% of occupied homes, while the overall vacancy rate is 5.0% and 323 vacant units are classified as for rent. Median household income is $85,273. Applying a 30% rent-to-income arithmetic screen to the $1,226 ZIP index produces required annual income of $49,040, and the index equals 17.3% of median household income before considering household composition or actual housing costs. Separately, 44.4% of surveyed renter households pay 30% or more of income toward gross rent. That burden statistic does not establish the affordability of any particular unit or household.
Broader measures place the ZIP below surrounding asking-rent context: the San Antonio city-context rent is $1,381.64, the Bexar County context rent is $1,389, and the San Antonio-New Braunfels metro-context rent is $1,416. Each is wider-geography context, not a substitute for the direct ZIP index. The ZIP’s lower current asking-rent measure aligns with its cooling history, while its ACS burden share remains a different survey-based household outcome that includes utilities and occupied homes. City, county, and metro values are best used to frame the scale of the ZIP reading, not to infer that all subareas, building types, or available listings inside the ZIP have the same rent or availability.
Redfin supplies a separate, direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation rather than rental transactions. Median sold price was $380,414, down 7.2% year over year, with 119 homes sold and a median 41 days on market. Redfin recorded inventory of 131 homes and 3.3 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.3%, while 14.7% of homes sold above list. The sold-price decline confirms the broad direction of the rent-history cooling signal, but resale turnover and supply indicators challenge any simple claim that one rent index fully describes market conditions. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 3.87%; it is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a property-level return measure or rental transaction statistic.
These sources cannot identify the rent, vacancy, burden, or resale economics of a specific address. Zillow’s index is not an advertised-unit inventory count; ACS estimates carry survey uncertainty; HUD standards are administrative benchmarks; and Redfin describes completed for-sale activity. The required-income screen is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Property-level review should verify the listing’s actual asking rent, bedroom count, utility responsibility, lease duration, availability date, and whether incentives affect the advertised amount. For a resale comparison, verify transaction type, property condition, list history, and whether the observed sale is comparable to the property being evaluated. Those checks determine whether the ZIP-level signals fit the individual property.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI is $1,226 and declined 6.8% on the exact same-month one-year comparison. The three-year history also declined on an annualized basis, while the five-year measure remains positive. This is a measured break from the longer path, not evidence that future rents will continue falling.","title":"Recent asking-rent cooling outweighs the current snapshot"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent for the matched ZCTA is above the ZIP Zillow index, but the figures describe different populations and costs. ACS covers occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities. Zillow tracks observed asking rents, so neither source should be substituted for the other.","title":"Occupied-home rent data sit above the asking-rent index"},{"body":"The ZIP asking-rent index is well below the arithmetic income threshold implied by the area median household income, yet a substantial share of surveyed renter households report gross-rent burdens at or above the standard screen. Household income, utilities, household size, and actual lease terms are not resolved by ZIP averages.","title":"Burden remains material despite a lower income screen"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a year-over-year decline in median sold price alongside recorded sales, inventory, marketing time, and sale-to-list signals. That direction is consistent with rent cooling, but it does not turn for-sale transactions into rental comparables or establish economics for any individual property.","title":"Resale evidence confirms cooling but remains a separate market"}],"risks":["The Zillow index, ACS gross-rent estimate, and HUD bedroom standards cover different universes. Treating any one of them as a direct substitute for a specific available unit can materially distort rent and utility comparisons.","Vacancy and renter-burden measures are area-level survey statistics. They do not prove that a particular property is vacant, that a listed unit is available, or that a specific household faces the reported burden.","Bedroom values are modelled by scaling the ZIP index with a HUD ladder. They can organize unit-size comparisons, but they do not measure observed asking rents by bedroom, building quality, utility package, or lease term.","Redfin’s rolling resale observation reports for-sale transactions and listings, not rental deals. Its rent-to-price calculation is a cross-source screen only and cannot establish property-level income, expenses, or transaction outcomes."],"qa":[{"a":"The Zillow figure is ZIP-level ZORI: a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for tracking the asking-rent direction of the ZIP market, but it is not a signed-lease average, a bedroom-specific observed rent series, or a measure of every occupied renter home.","q":"What does the Zillow rent figure measure?"},{"a":"The difference reflects source scope rather than a direct conflict. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities in gross rent. Zillow ZORI is an asking-rent index based on observed listings. Timing, unit mix, occupied-home status, and utility treatment differ between the measures.","q":"Why is ACS gross rent higher than Zillow ZORI here?"},{"a":"No. The required-income figure simply divides annualized ZIP asking rent by a 30% income share. It is arithmetic, not advice, an underwriting standard, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual affordability depends on household income, debts, utilities, household composition, lease terms, and the specific unit’s full costs.","q":"Does the required-income calculation determine renter eligibility?"},{"a":"Use Redfin as direct evidence about the ZIP for-sale market, including sold prices, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list results. It can provide a separate market-direction check against rent history. It should not be used as rental transaction evidence or converted into property-specific financial performance.","q":"How should the Redfin resale figures be used with rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1085.45443},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1100.349621},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1116.766702},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1138.745229},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1151.991617},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1179.067913},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1208.067255},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1233.561559},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1245.057202},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1250.431577},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1253.984793},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1273.462603},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1283.516277},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1302.561066},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1310.41158},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1310.030654},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1325.896837},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1326.808364},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1332.741241},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1327.171476},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1330.699427},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1330.81618},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1325.994383},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1323.776254},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1335.40501},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1340.922469},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1342.163068},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1341.757872},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1331.120557},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1333.318302},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1323.868291},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1329.189736},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1321.703049},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1326.685546},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1334.38666},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1335.865068},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1324.795534},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1300.499506},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1300.518574},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1301.856362},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1318.259681},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1315.229223},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1318.728564},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1314.73698},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1316.534033},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1321.614438},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1330.237394},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1336.036542},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1329.560627},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1327.679914},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1318.335627},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1315.237417},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1300.519757},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1296.535228},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1291.404331},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1286.745267},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1281.764859},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1268.93179},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1252.668767},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1239.721355},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1237.981984},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1239.079824},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1235.155765},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1226.11849}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1315.237417,"endRent":1226.11849,"change":-0.06775881361653813,"cagr":-0.06775881361653813},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1341.757872,"endRent":1226.11849,"change":-0.08618498494637472,"cagr":-0.02959558612134483},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1138.745229,"endRent":1226.11849,"change":0.07672766372573747,"cagr":0.014895143352549267}},"maxDrawdown":-0.08646086363628058,"annualizedVolatility":0.03061049042034689,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}