ZIP 78245’s current rent snapshot carries a clear tension: the immediate direction is lower, yet the broader record is not uniformly negative. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI was $1,431, below its year-earlier level. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-specific quote or a bedroom tabulation. The five-digit label functions here both as a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The central reading question is therefore how much weight to give a current, all-type asking-rent snapshot while its trajectory is cooling.
Direct Zillow ZIP history to that endpoint has full coverage. Exact same-month annualized change was -3.84% over the 1-year window, -1.67% over the 3-year window, and +1.27% over the 5-year window. The most recent decline therefore confirms, rather than breaks from, the intermediate cooling path; both contrast with the longest positive path. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.28%, and the maximum drawdown reached -7.37%. Those backward-looking movements mean the series supports continuity, but the current index merits qualified confidence as an evolving snapshot, not a forecast or investment recommendation. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,870 for momentum, 382 for stability, and 2,181 for balanced signal; a lower rank is higher, and the ranks are descriptive rather than predictive.
ZORI should not be collapsed into either the survey or program standard. In the matched ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey, median gross rent was $1,618; it covers occupied renter homes, includes selected utilities, and carries survey sampling uncertainty. That is a distinct universe from a current blended asking-rent index, so the lower ZORI does not by itself signal an error or a lease discount. HUD’s local FY2026 two-bedroom FMR was $1,660. FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard—not asking rent—and it likewise cannot be used as a direct lease comparable. Timing, occupied-versus-asking status, utility treatment, and unit mix all limit cross-source equivalence.
For a size-sensitive view, the analysis scales ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder. It produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates—not measured bedroom rents—of $1,078, $1,181, $1,431, $1,836, and $2,138, respectively from studio through four bedrooms. The estimates carry forward HUD’s local relative bedroom pattern and are useful only as a modelled translation of the blended index. They do not establish achieved rents, advertised rent by bedroom, concessions, quality, utility obligations, or availability. The index-anchor figure does not transform all-type ZORI into a directly measured rent for a particular bedroom count.
The income screen looks materially easier than the burden data, and that disagreement is consequential. Annualizing the current ZORI produces required income of $57,240 at 30% of income, compared with ZCTA median household income of $90,029; the resulting asking-rent-to-income screen is 19.1%. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, because the household-income statistic is broad while ZORI blends asking listings. In ACS renter-household evidence, 48.9% spent at least the stated threshold on rent. The gap between the simple screen and observed burden means neither figure can prove affordability for a particular renter or unit. Burden reflects occupied households and their reported circumstances, while current asking rent describes a different universe.
Area housing composition supplies context but not evidence about a vacant listing. The matched ZCTA estimates 33,173 housing units, including 26,259 single-family units and 3,355 large multifamily units. Its overall vacancy rate was 4.6%, and renter households made up 31.3% of occupied housing units. The packet also identifies a for-rent vacancy category, but neither area-wide vacancy nor structure type establishes a unit’s condition, lease price, concessions, or immediate availability. These estimates describe stock and tenure across the statistical area; they do not show that a particular property will lease at the ZORI level or that its vacancy carries any specific implication.
Wider benchmarks are close to, but cannot substitute for, the ZIP reading. San Antonio, TX city context reports rent of $1,382, Bexar County context reports $1,389, and San Antonio–New Braunfels, TX metro context reports $1,416; each is a wider geographic context rather than a ZIP lease comparable. The ZIP index is slightly above each context value, whereas the ZCTA gross-rent statistic is a separate occupied-home survey measure. This comparison helps locate the index without merging geographies or sources. It does not show that city, county, or metro conditions determine individual ZIP asking rents, household budgets, or property availability.
Redfin’s direct ZIP resale evidence adds a separate, not rental, cooling check. In the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, median sold price was $289,933, down 2.62% year over year. It recorded 516 homes sold, 80 median days on market, 861 homes of inventory, and 5.1 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.51%; 10.97% sold above list, while 12.69% went off market within two weeks. These are for-sale market observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables. The year-over-year resale-price decline confirms the rent history’s cooling direction, but it sits beside the income screen; that cross-universe tension means the arithmetic screen is not a complete condition reading. The sales count shows resale turnover, but neither source establishes rental terms. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 5.92%, only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Concrete property-level checks include matching active listings by bedroom, size, condition, lease term, utilities, concessions, fees, and availability, and matching sales by property type, condition, date, and list history before drawing a unit-level conclusion.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s direct ZIP history records a 1-year annualized decline of 3.84% and a 3-year annualized decline of 1.67%, versus 1.27% annualized growth over 5 years. The recent path therefore continues cooling and breaks from the longer positive measurement. Complete coverage supports the history read, but variability and drawdown mean the current ZORI level is a backward-looking index snapshot rather than a forecast.","title":"Cooling history is complete but not predictive"},{"body":"The 30% arithmetic screen converts current ZORI to $57,240 required annual income, below the ZCTA’s $90,029 median household income. Yet ACS reports 48.9% of renter households above the burden threshold. This is not a contradiction: the income figure spans households, burden concerns occupied renters, and ACS gross rent includes selected utilities. Neither statistic qualifies an applicant or establishes a unit’s affordability.","title":"Income arithmetic and burden evidence diverge"},{"body":"Using the local HUD ladder to scale ZORI creates a studio-through-four-bedroom monthly range of $1,078 to $2,138. It is a proportional model, not a survey of achieved rents or advertised rents by bedroom. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, and its use in the ladder does not make the result a lease comparable. Terms, utilities, concessions, condition, and availability remain unobserved.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled, not observed"},{"body":"With median resale price down 2.62%, 80 days on market, and 5.1 months of supply, the direct ZIP resale evidence aligns with cooling ZORI history. It is nonetheless a for-sale observation, not rental activity. The 5.92% annualized-ZORI-to-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or property-specific economic measure.","title":"Resale cooling is a separate market signal"}],"risks":["ZORI blends rental types and tracks asking rents, so a change in listing mix, utility treatment, concessions, or available unit quality can make it diverge from a specific lease.","ACS ZCTA estimates describe a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, use a five-year occupied-household survey, and carry sampling uncertainty; they cannot identify current availability, tenant terms, or any particular property.","The HUD-scaled bedroom ladder is a modelled proportional translation of the all-type index. It may not match observed bedroom rents when unit condition, utilities, lease length, or concessions differ.","Redfin resale figures concern completed home sales and listings in the for-sale market. Price, supply, and sale-to-list observations do not establish rental demand, unit operating economics, or outcomes for a particular property."],"qa":[{"a":"They are drawn from different universes. ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. Differences in timing, unit mix, occupied-versus-asking status, utility treatment, and survey design can produce different values without proving that either source is wrong.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent above current ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. The procedure retains a local relative bedroom relationship but has no direct observation of advertised or achieved rents for a given bedroom size. It cannot reveal condition, lease terms, fees, utilities, concessions, availability, or a property-specific rent.","q":"Does the bedroom ladder measure actual rents by bedroom?"},{"a":"The exact same-month history shows a -3.84% annualized 1-year change and a -1.67% annualized 3-year change, following +1.27% annualized 5-year growth. Recent movement therefore confirms cooling over the shorter windows and diverges from the longer positive record. Variability and maximum drawdown reinforce that a current ZORI observation is backward-looking evidence, not a projected path.","q":"What does the history say about current rent direction?"},{"a":"It provides only a separate ZIP for-sale context. The rolling-three-month resale observation reports sales prices, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes for home transactions, not rental deals. Its price decline is consistent with cooling rent history, but it cannot validate a lease rate. The annualized-ZORI-to-sale-price percentage is a cross-source screen, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"What can the resale observation contribute to a rental analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + 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