At $1,379 in June 2026, ZIP 78249’s Zillow ZORI was 3.95% below its prior-year reading. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types; it is not a signed-lease measure or a bedroom-specific quote. The 78249 five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a match to a Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey instead reports a $1,527 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities. That survey figure is 9.7% above ZORI, a timing, utility-treatment, population, and measure difference rather than a contradiction.
Broader rent benchmarks place the ZIP near, but below, each named context: the San Antonio city context is $1,381.64, the Bexar County context is $1,389, and the San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX metro context is $1,416. Those are wider-area context values, not ZIP substitutes. HUD’s FY2026 FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the supplied local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,044 for a studio, $1,137 for one bedroom, $1,379 for two bedrooms, $1,769 for three bedrooms, and $2,065 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and their pattern should not be used to overwrite a unit’s actual asking terms.
Income and burden evidence point to a different decision tension. Annualizing the current index and applying a 30% rent-to-income screen yields $55,160 of required household income; this is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. It is below the ZCTA’s ACS median household income of $80,565, and the index equals 20.5% of that median income when calculated mechanically. Yet ACS reports 5,369 of 11,482 renter households spending at least the threshold share of income on gross rent, a 46.8% burden share. Gross rent includes selected utilities and asks do not, so neither comparison proves affordability for a specific household or lease.
The housing survey describes a relatively even tenure split rather than a rent-only market. Of 24,772 housing units in the ZCTA, the reported vacancy rate is 5.4% and the renter share is 49.0%. Structure counts include 15,362 single-family units and 4,840 units in large multifamily structures, showing a mixed stock within the survey geography. ACS also records 697 units vacant for rent. This category is useful for area-level supply context, but it cannot establish that any given apartment is available, unoccupied, comparable, or priced at the index.
History makes the current decline more than a short-interval story, while preserving its limits. On exact same-month comparisons through the June 2026 endpoint, ZORI changed at annualized rates of -3.95% over one year, -3.14% over three years, and +0.44% over five years. Thus the current direction confirms the medium-term cooling path but breaks from the longer horizon’s modest gain; these are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.36% means a single current reading deserves more caution than a perfectly stable series would. Separately, the 10.17% maximum drawdown shows the largest peak-to-trough reversal observed. Coverage was 99.28%. Among national history-eligible ZIPs, transparent discovery ranks were 2,887 for momentum, 474 for stability, and 2,269 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher.
For June 2026, Redfin supplies a separate, direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions. Its median sold price was $314,929, down 2.2% year over year. The record logged 129 homes sold with 40 median days on market, alongside 190 homes of inventory and 4.5 months of supply. Sale-to-list signals were 97.89% on average, with 11.21% of sales closing above list. These resale measures describe transaction price, marketing time, supply, and liquidity only; they are not rental comparables, property economics, or evidence about an individual landlord’s terms. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is 5.25%, solely a cross-source screening ratio.
The screens create a useful but unresolved tension. The backward-looking asking-rent series and the resale price change both point downward, so the for-sale observation directionally confirms rather than challenges the cooling label. At the same time, the mechanical income screen sits below the ZCTA median income while the gross-rent burden share remains substantial. That contrast cautions against using one area median or one current asking-rent snapshot as a household outcome. Recorded home sales establish that resale transactions occurred, but they do not explain rent movements, establish financing conditions, or turn the rent-price screen into a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
Timing and scope remain decisive limits. ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS gross rent is a survey measure for occupied renter homes with selected utilities, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is an observed resale series. Before applying this report to any property, verify that the address belongs to the relevant ZIP/ZCTA geography; confirm the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease length, concessions, fees, availability, and condition; and compare the specific sale’s list and closing records with genuinely comparable properties. Review the dates behind each item as well as the index’s history coverage. None of the vacancy, burden, or screening measures demonstrates conditions, affordability, or economics for a particular unit.
","findings":[{"body":"In June 2026, ZORI was $1,379 and the matched ACS median gross rent was $1,527. The apparent gap is not a direct discount calculation: Zillow tracks a typical blended asking-rent index, while ACS surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The supplied match uses the same numerical label, but its ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Current asking index is below the survey gross-rent benchmark"},{"body":"Same-month history shows negative annualized ZORI changes over the recent and medium horizons after a modest positive five-year result. Recent direction therefore follows the three-year cooling path but departs from the longer net gain. The volatility and maximum drawdown measures show that the series has moved enough to limit confidence in a single current snapshot. Discovery ranks support comparison, not prediction.","title":"Recent cooling follows the medium-term rent path"},{"body":"The required-income screen falls below the ZCTA median household income, but the ACS gross-rent burden share is still substantial. That difference is informative rather than contradictory: the screen uses the current asking-rent index mechanically, whereas burden describes surveyed occupied renter households and gross rent with selected utilities. Neither source identifies a particular household’s income, lease payment, or ability to qualify.","title":"The income screen and renter burden answer different questions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month resale observation reports a lower year-over-year median sold price as well as homes sold, marketing time, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. Its price direction aligns with rent cooling, without demonstrating causation. The annualized ZIP rent divided by median sold price is a cross-source screening ratio only, not a measure of cap rate, net return, or property yield.","title":"Resale softening aligns directionally without becoming rental evidence"}],"risks":["ZORI’s blended asking-rent construction can differ from a specific unit because bedroom mix, utilities, timing, lease terms, concessions, and property condition are not established here.","ACS burden, income, vacancy, and gross-rent figures are ZCTA five-year survey estimates for groups of homes and households; they cannot identify an individual tenant’s payment or a unit’s vacancy.","The bedroom figures are HUD-ladder-scaled modelled estimates rather than observations. A building’s actual bedroom rents may differ materially, and HUD administrative standards are not asking-rent comparables.","Redfin’s rolling resale observation is limited to for-sale transactions and should not be used to infer rental demand, leasing liquidity, operating costs, financing, net returns, or the economics of a property."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types at its reported time. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. The ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. Different populations, timing, utility treatment, and methods make a numerical gap expected.","q":"Why does the current Zillow figure differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. Each bedroom amount is modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with the supplied local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent observation. The estimates provide a consistent ladder only; actual advertised rent, utilities, concessions, bedroom count, condition, availability, and lease terms require property-level confirmation.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts measured rents for 78249?"},{"a":"The exact same-month history shows negative annualized ZORI changes over recent and medium horizons, but a small positive annualized five-year change. That is backward-looking evidence, not a forecast. Volatility, prior drawdown, and near-complete coverage indicate a well-observed series that has still moved enough for one current rent reading to warrant caution.","q":"What does the cooling history say about the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"No. The calculation annualizes ZIP ZORI and divides it by Redfin’s ZIP median sold price, combining an asking-rent index with a resale statistic. It does not contain property-level expenses, financing, configuration, actual lease terms, or rental transaction data. It is only a cross-source screening ratio and cannot establish cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"Does rent divided by price indicate return or property economics?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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