At the June 2026 reading, Zillow ZORI for 78250 was $1,476 per month, down 1.0% from a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a market indicator rather than a lease-level rent roll. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. As wider context only, the San Antonio city context rent was $1,382, the Bexar County context rent was $1,389, and the San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX metro context rent was $1,416. The ZIP’s index therefore stood above each broader asking-rent context while its latest annual movement was negative.
The historical pattern makes that current decline more consequential than a single monthly reading. Exact same-month ZIP ZORI change was -1.0% over one year and -1.1% annualized over three years, whereas the five-year annualized change remained positive at 2.5%. Recent cooling therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer growth path. The record has 100% coverage, supporting continuity of the backward-looking measurement. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.5%, suggesting relatively limited month-to-month movement in the observed index. Separately, the maximum drawdown reached 5.1%, showing that a meaningful retreat has occurred within the history. The national discovery stability rank was 603 among history-eligible ZIPs, while momentum ranked 2,669; these transparent discovery measures describe past observations, not a forecast or investment recommendation.
Three rent universes should not be substituted for one another. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS median gross rent was $1,530 in the five-year survey of occupied renter homes; that measure includes selected utilities and does not represent current advertised rents. The Zillow asking-rent index was 96.5% of that ACS median, a modest gap that is consistent with different populations, timing, and utility treatment rather than proof of a rent discount. HUD’s local two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard was $1,640, placing ZORI at 90% of that administrative benchmark. HUD is bedroom-specific program administration, not an asking-rent survey or a set of lease comparables.
The bedroom ladder is useful only as a modelling device tied to the local HUD relationship. Scaling ZIP ZORI proportionally against the HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,116 for a studio, $1,215 for one bedroom, $1,476 for two bedrooms, $1,890 for three bedrooms, and $2,205 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: they preserve the local HUD ladder’s relative spacing while anchoring its level to the ZIP’s all-rental-type ZORI. Actual advertised units can diverge because the index blends rental types and the model does not observe unit condition, utility inclusion, lease terms, concessions, floor area, or an individual property’s bedroom mix.
A simple income screen is less strained than the burden data might initially imply. At a 30% rent-to-income threshold, supporting $1,476 of monthly asking rent requires $59,040 of annual income, compared with a ZCTA median household income of $80,659. That arithmetic places the index at 22.0% of median household income; it is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence of affordability for any household. In the ACS renter survey, 2,668 of 5,247 renter households, or 50.8%, paid at least 30% of income toward gross rent. The burden measure includes occupied renters across varied incomes and rent levels, so it cautions against treating a ZIP-wide median-income calculation as a household-level result.
Housing composition gives the burden and asking-rent evidence an important structural setting. The matched ZCTA contained 20,537 housing units, with an overall vacancy rate of 5.0% and a renter share of 26.9%. Its stock was heavily concentrated in single-family units, which accounted for 18,296 homes, while buildings with larger multifamily structures accounted for 609 units. Among vacant homes, 419 were identified as vacant for rent. Those figures describe the area’s surveyed housing inventory, not the availability, condition, rent, or turnover of any particular unit. They also help explain why a blended asking-rent index should not be read as an apartment-only measure.
The direct ZIP for-sale evidence creates the clearest tension with rent cooling. In Redfin’s rolling-three-month resale observation, the median sold price was $251,693, up 2.8% year over year, while Zillow asking rent was declining. Resale activity included 144 homes sold, a median 53 days on market, and 340 active listings, with 3.7 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 97.8%, 10.7% of sales closed above list, and 28.5% went off market within two weeks. These are ZIP resale signals, not rental transactions or property economics. Annualized ZORI divided by median sold price produced a 7.0% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Rising resale pricing challenges any simple reading that softer asking rents necessarily coincide with weaker for-sale conditions.
The evidence supports a measured interpretation rather than a unit-level conclusion. Zillow tracks a blended asking-rent index, ACS describes surveyed occupied renter homes, HUD provides an administrative bedroom standard, and Redfin observes ZIP resale transactions; none independently establishes a property’s operating result or attainable lease rate. Concrete property-level verification would need the current advertised rent and concessions, bedroom count and layout, included utilities, lease duration, unit condition, marketing exposure, and recent comparable listings and completed leases. A resale listing’s price, days on market, or sale-to-list outcome also cannot establish rental demand for that property. The key unresolved question is whether a specific unit’s current terms align with the ZIP’s cooling rent history while remaining distinct from the resale market’s recent price movement.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP Zillow ZORI was above the cited San Antonio city, Bexar County, and metro asking-rent context values, even after its latest annual decline. That relative level should be interpreted as a geographic comparison of asking-rent indicators, not evidence that every property or rental type in the ZIP commands the same premium.","title":"Rent level remains above broader asking-rent context"},{"body":"The one-year and three-year same-month measures were negative, while the five-year annualized result remained positive. This marks a break from the longer path rather than a continuation of it. Full history coverage improves confidence in the continuity of the measurement, but it does not turn historical movement into a forecast.","title":"Cooling is established across recent horizons"},{"body":"The median-income arithmetic screen places the ZIP asking-rent index below a 30% income threshold, yet roughly half of surveyed renter households were rent burdened. Those results address different questions: the first compares two ZIP-wide medians, while the second captures the distribution of gross-rent burdens among occupied renter households.","title":"Household affordability screens and renter burden diverge"},{"body":"The ZIP’s direct resale observation showed a year-over-year increase in median sold price even as the asking-rent index declined. Marketing time, supply, sale-to-list performance, and above-list activity describe for-sale liquidity and negotiation conditions, not rental transaction performance. The rent-price ratio remains a cross-source screen only.","title":"Resale price movement challenges the rent-only signal"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, so it may not match a specific home, apartment, bedroom count, lease term, utility package, concession structure, or current advertised listing.","ACS gross rent and renter-burden results are five-year survey measures for occupied renter homes, include selected utilities, and cannot establish the income burden or affordability of a particular tenant.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom-specific standards rather than asking-rent observations; the bedroom figures derived from them are modelled estimates and may differ materially from unit-level market evidence.","Redfin resale statistics measure a rolling-three-month for-sale market, not leasing outcomes, operating expenses, vacancy at a property, financing terms, maintenance needs, or a property-specific financial result."],"qa":[{"a":"The figures come from separate evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current-style blended asking-rent index, ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities, and HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard. Their differences should be interpreted as scope and methodology differences, not contradictions.","q":"Why does the report show different rent figures for the same ZIP?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates produced by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow ZORI level using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, lease comparables, or direct observations of available units. Unit characteristics, utility treatment, concessions, and rental type can produce substantial variation from those modelled amounts.","q":"Are the studio through four-bedroom figures observed rents?"},{"a":"No. The screen is arithmetic: it calculates the annual income associated with spending 30% of income on the ZIP asking-rent index. It is not advice, an applicant qualification standard, or a household-level affordability finding. The ACS burden measure shows that renter outcomes vary materially around ZIP-wide median figures.","q":"Does the 30% income screen mean a household can afford rent in this ZIP?"},{"a":"Redfin provides direct ZIP evidence about the for-sale market, including sold prices, sales volume, marketing time, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list signals. It adds a useful tension because resale pricing rose while asking rent cooled. It cannot, however, be used as rental comparable evidence or as a measure of property-level return.","q":"What does the resale evidence add to the rent analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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