At ZIP 78251, Zillow’s ZIP-level Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) stood at $1,180 in June 2026, down 1.7% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quoted rent for a particular available home. For wider context, the City of San Antonio asking-rent index was $1,382, the Bexar County asking-rent index was $1,389, and the San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX metro asking-rent index was $1,416. The ZIP’s current index therefore sits below each named broader-area context, while its recent direction is negative rather than merely slower growth.
The cooling is not confined to the latest comparison. Exact same-month ZORI changes annualized to -1.6% over one year, -2.2% over three years, and +1.0% over five years. Recent declines thus confirm the shorter and middle historical path but break from the modest positive longer path. Measured annualized monthly-return variability was 2.0%, indicating relatively limited routine month-to-month movement in the observed index. Separately, the maximum drawdown reached 8.8%, showing that a meaningful cumulative retreat has occurred despite low ongoing variability. History coverage is complete. Transparent national discovery ranks place momentum at 2,786, stability at 144, and the balanced measure at 1,925 among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations; the stable series supports more confidence in the reported snapshot than a highly erratic series would, but not certainty that it represents every rental type or unit.
The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA label, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median household income of $78,958 and median gross rent of $1,413 for occupied renter homes in that ZCTA. Gross rent includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI reflects observed asking rents across rental types, so the two measures should not be read as conflicting quotes for the same lease. The current asking-rent index is 16.5% below the ACS gross-rent median, a difference that may reflect their distinct populations, timing, rent concepts, and survey versus market-index methods. ACS figures are survey estimates with reported uncertainty rather than a current listing feed.
Bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder produces estimated monthly levels of $892 for a studio, $974 for one bedroom, $1,180 for two bedrooms, $1,512 for three bedrooms, and $1,763 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom modelled estimate is below the $1,600 HUD standard for that bedroom size. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent measure, so neither the HUD amount nor the modelled ladder establishes a lease price. The ladder is useful only for translating the ZIP-wide ZORI into a consistent bedroom pattern while retaining that limitation.
A simple income screen places the current ZORI at a required annual household income of $47,200 when rent equals 30% of income. That is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Annualized ZORI equals 17.9% of the local ACS median household income, a broad area-level comparison rather than a household budget. ACS also reports that 50.5% of renter households, or 5,532 of 10,959, spent at least that share of income on gross rent. The City of San Antonio context burden share was 53.7%, and the Bexar County context burden share was 53.4%; both are broader-area measures, not ZIP lease outcomes. Aggregate burden cannot prove that any specific unit is affordable or unaffordable for a particular renter.
The matched ZCTA housing inventory contains 23,491 units, with a 5.2% overall vacancy rate. Its recorded structure mix includes 13,423 single-family units and 3,033 units in large multifamily structures, indicating that both building categories are material in the area-level housing stock. Most recorded vacant units were designated for rent rather than sale, but vacancy remains a Census-area aggregate rather than a count of currently rentable, comparable homes. It does not establish available bedroom sizes, effective rents after concessions, property condition, or whether a vacancy is suitable for a given household. The near-term ZORI decline should therefore be considered alongside, rather than inferred from, the vacancy measure.
The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation presents a related but separate tension. Median sold price was $272,938, down 4.9% year over year; 81 homes sold with a median 47 days on market, inventory of 139 homes, and 5.2 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 97.7%, while 15.2% of sales closed above list and 35.1% went off market within two weeks. These are for-sale market observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Falling resale price and below-list average execution echo the rent index’s cooling direction, challenging any reading of the ZIP as uniformly tight. Yet completed sales and the short off-market share show continued resale activity. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio; it does not measure operating income, expenses, or a property-specific return.
Several limits matter before applying these figures to a property. ZORI is an index rather than a unit-level quote; ACS is a five-year survey of occupied homes; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin covers resale activity rather than leases. A concrete property-level review would check current comparable asking rents and executed terms where available, bedroom count, square footage, condition, included utilities, concessions, fees, lease duration, and actual availability. For a resale comparison, review sale dates, property characteristics, list-to-sale changes, and whether listed inventory is genuinely comparable. Those checks are necessary because the data describe ZIP or ZCTA aggregates and cannot verify the economics, marketability, or affordability of an individual home.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP-level ZORI was $1,180 and declined 1.7% year over year. That asking-rent index was below the City of San Antonio, Bexar County, and San Antonio-New Braunfels metro context indexes. The comparison identifies a lower current ZIP index, but the wider figures are context only and do not convert into ZIP rental comps or establish the rent of any individual unit.","title":"Cooling asking-rent index contrasts with higher regional context"},{"body":"One-year and three-year same-month ZORI changes were negative, while the five-year change remained slightly positive. Monthly index movement was relatively stable on the reported variability measure, yet the maximum drawdown shows a larger cumulative decline. Together, those backward-looking results support a cooling interpretation without providing a forecast for rents, leasing velocity, or future price changes.","title":"History shows low routine variability but a material retreat"},{"body":"The ZCTA ACS median gross rent exceeded current ZORI, but ACS measures occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities. ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. The ZCTA match is useful for demographic context, although a Census ZCTA is statistical geography and is not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"ACS gross rent and ZORI answer different questions"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation showed a lower median sold price year over year, sale-to-list execution below list on average, and several months of supply. Those signals broadly align with the rent index’s cooling path. However, Redfin resale measures describe homes sold and marketed for sale, not rental transactions, tenant demand, lease concessions, or property-level rental economics.","title":"Resale softness aligns with rent cooling, but remains a separate market"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS gross rent, HUD standards, and Redfin resale figures use different populations, timing, and definitions. Combining them as though they were interchangeable unit-level rent quotes would overstate precision.","The historical series is backward-looking and can show both low month-to-month variability and a sizable cumulative drawdown. Neither pattern establishes the next rent movement, leasing conditions, or the outcome for a particular property.","ACS burden, vacancy, income, and housing-stock estimates describe the matched ZCTA aggregate and carry survey uncertainty. They cannot prove that a specific vacant unit is available, affordable, comparable, or rentable today.","The resale data are a rolling ZIP observation for for-sale homes. Median price, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list metrics may differ materially by property type, condition, transaction timing, and seller concessions."],"qa":[{"a":"They cover different evidence universes. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. The difference does not show that either source is wrong or that a currently listed unit should rent at the ACS median.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent higher than the current Zillow asking-rent index?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent dataset. The estimates provide a consistent sizing framework but do not replace current comparable listings or signed lease evidence.","q":"Are the bedroom rents actual measured rents for ZIP 78251?"},{"a":"It converts the reported monthly ZIP ZORI into an annual income amount using a thirty-percent rent-to-income assumption. That is a mathematical screen only. It is not financial advice, a recommendation, a tenant underwriting conclusion, or an applicant qualification rule, and it does not account for household debts, utilities, fees, subsidies, or savings.","q":"What does the required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"Use Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale data to describe the for-sale market only: sold prices, transaction activity, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. It can test whether resale conditions appear directionally consistent with rent history, but it cannot serve as rental comparables, operating results, or evidence of a property-specific return.","q":"How should the resale data be used alongside the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area 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