At 78258, Zillow’s current ZORI is $1,496, with the typical observed asking-rent index down 0.7% from a year earlier. ZORI is a ZIP-level asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a market indicator rather than a quote for a specific unit. The 78258 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The immediate tension is a modestly lower asking-rent reading within an area whose broader resale indicators have not moved in the same direction.
The rent history classifies as cooling. Exact same-month change was negative over one year at 0.7% annually and over three years at 2.1% annually, while the five-year annualized change remained positive at 1.2%. That means the recent path breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer five-year rise. Monthly ZORI changes have shown 2.2% annualized variability, a relatively restrained level that supports some confidence in the direction of the current index reading. Still, the historical peak-to-trough drawdown reached 6.7%, so a single current snapshot should not be treated as a permanent level. The series has 100% coverage, and its transparent national discovery ranks are 2,660 for momentum, 324 for stability, and 1,915 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The ACS 2024 five-year matched-ZCTA median gross rent was $1,736. This is not directly interchangeable with ZORI: ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes over a five-year period, and gross rent includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents. The lower current ZORI reading can therefore indicate a different mix of available rental offerings, timing, and utility treatment rather than a definitive change in the costs faced by every occupied renter household. The ACS survey nature also means its estimates should be read as area-level measures rather than precise property-level facts.
Bedroom figures are modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces estimates of $1,126 for a studio, $1,233 for one bedroom, $1,496 for two bedrooms, $1,915 for three bedrooms, and $2,236 for four bedrooms. The corresponding HUD two-bedroom standard is $1,820. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and the modelled ladder does not establish that a particular apartment or house is available at these amounts. Its practical use is to put the blended ZORI into a transparent bedroom-size framework.
The arithmetic affordability screen is comparatively favorable against the area’s $117,835 median household income: annualizing the $1,496 ZORI implies $59,840 of income at a 30% rent-to-income screen, and the index equals 15.2% of the reported median household income before utilities or household-specific costs. This 30% screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Distribution remains important: among the estimated 8,820 renter-occupied homes in the ZCTA, 43.8% were rent burdened at 30% or more of income in the ACS measure. For wider context only, San Antonio city’s context rent is $1,382, Bexar County’s context rent is $1,389, and the San Antonio-New Braunfels metro context rent is $1,416; each is a broader geography, not a ZIP substitute.
The ACS housing-stock picture points to a mixed but predominantly single-family physical base. The ZCTA has 20,895 housing units and a 6.4% vacancy rate, with 559 vacant homes classified as for rent. There are 12,490 single-family units and 4,333 units in large multifamily structures. These counts describe the area’s stock and vacancy classifications, not the condition, rent level, lease terms, or immediate availability of any individual home. In particular, a vacant-for-rent designation cannot prove that a specific unit is rentable now, competitively priced, or suitable for a given household.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation belongs strictly to the for-sale market. It reports a $548,876 median sold price, up 4.6% year over year, with 182 homes sold and a 38-day median marketing time. Inventory was 233 homes and months of supply stood at 3.9. The average sale-to-list result was 98.8%, while 21.5% of sales closed above list price. These resale measures confirm that transactions were occurring while challenging a simplistic interpretation of the cooling rent history: sold prices rose even as ZORI declined. That contrast does not establish causation or property economics. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is 3.27%, only a cross-source screening ratio rather than a measure of a property’s financial result.
The principal limits are source mismatch and aggregation. ZORI is an index across asking rentals, ACS describes occupied renter homes in a statistical ZCTA, HUD provides administrative bedroom standards, and Redfin records ZIP resale transactions rather than rental deals. Before using the figures for a specific property, a reader should verify current asking rents, bedroom count, included utilities, concessions, lease duration, unit condition, and actual availability. On the resale side, relevant property-level checks include recent comparable sales, list-price history, time on market, condition differences, and whether the subject’s transaction terms resemble the ZIP-wide sale-to-list signals. The unresolved question is whether a specific listing aligns with these broad indicators rather than merely sharing the 78258 label.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI is $1,496 and has declined over both the one-year and three-year same-month comparisons, while the five-year annualized result remains positive. The shorter path therefore departs from the longer history. Limited monthly variability improves confidence in the observed cooling direction, but the historical drawdown shows that the current index should remain a snapshot rather than a fixed benchmark.","title":"Cooling rent index, but not a straight-line decline"},{"body":"The ZIP-level asking-rent screen is low relative to the ZCTA’s median household income, yet the ACS burden measure shows that a substantial share of occupied renter homes devote at least 30% of income to gross rent. The difference is expected because the screen uses current asking rent and area median income, while ACS describes surveyed occupied households with varying incomes, rents, and utility costs.","title":"Area affordability metrics and renter burden tell different parts of the story"},{"body":"The bedroom ladder translates the blended ZIP ZORI through local HUD bedroom relationships. It provides consistent estimates from studio through four-bedroom units, but it does not measure signed leases, advertised bedroom rents, concessions, or property quality. HUD’s standards are administrative benchmarks and should not be treated as proof that a specific comparable rental should command a particular price.","title":"Bedroom amounts are a transparent model, not observed rental comps"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a higher median sold price year over year, completed sales, and a sale-to-list ratio below full list on average. Those for-sale observations contrast with the cooling asking-rent index. The annualized-rent-to-price figure is useful only as a cross-source screen; it cannot describe transaction-level rental economics or the performance of a particular home.","title":"Resale strength creates a cross-market tension"}],"risks":["ZORI combines asking listings across rental types and cannot substitute for a property-specific quote. It may not reflect a subject home’s condition, lease term, included utilities, concessions, availability, or timing of marketing.","ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in a statistical ZCTA, not a live inventory feed for USPS delivery ZIP boundaries. Its gross-rent and burden measures cannot establish the experience of one household.","HUD FMR or SAFMR values are administrative bedroom standards rather than asking rents. The modelled bedroom ladder inherits that limitation and should not be interpreted as measured rents for comparable units.","Redfin resale statistics describe for-sale transactions over a rolling period, not rental transactions. Higher sold prices and cooling ZORI can coexist without proving a relationship, a cause, or a property-level financial outcome."],"qa":[{"a":"The $1,496 figure is Zillow ZORI, a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for tracking the current asking-rent environment, but it is not a signed-lease average, a bedroom-specific rent survey, or a quote for a particular available property.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure measure in 78258?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured asking rents, lease rents, or transaction rents. Differences in unit condition, location, utilities, concessions, and lease terms can cause actual listings to differ materially.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"It is an arithmetic screen: annualized ZORI divided by 30% produces the stated income figure. It is not financial advice, an affordability guarantee, or an applicant qualification rule. Household income, utilities, debt, household size, savings, and property-specific lease terms can materially change an individual situation.","q":"How should the 30% required-income figure be used?"},{"a":"Redfin’s figures are direct ZIP resale observations covering homes that sold or were listed in the for-sale market over a rolling three-month period. They report sale prices, marketing, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes, not apartment or house rental transactions. The rent-to-price calculation is therefore only a cross-source screening ratio.","q":"Why should the Redfin price evidence not be treated as rental evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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