$1,316 is the June 2026 Zillow ZORI for 78412, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a lease quote for any one home. That ZIP reading was 1.0% above its same month one year earlier. For wider context, Corpus Christi city’s Zillow rent was $1,414.56, Nueces County’s Zillow rent was $1,415, and the Corpus Christi, TX metro Zillow rent was $1,422; each is a broader-scope comparator, not a ZIP substitute. The current ZIP index is below all three contextual asking-rent readings, but those gaps do not establish the rent of a specific available unit or explain why the levels differ.
The longer rent tape makes the calm current reading less simple. Exact same-month Zillow ZORI changes through the stated endpoint annualize to 1.0% over one year, 0.2% over three years, and 1.2% over five years. Recent direction therefore broadly confirms a modest longer path while exceeding the especially subdued three-year pace; it does not demonstrate acceleration beyond the observed endpoint. Monthly change variability annualized to 3.5%, supporting the high-variability designation and reducing confidence in a single current snapshot as a stable reference. Separately, the largest peak-to-trough decline was 5.8%, showing material historical reversals. The series has 100% coverage, with transparent national discovery ranks of 2,129 for momentum, 2,199 for stability, and 2,525 for the balanced score among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The five-digit 78412 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS five-year ZCTA median gross rent is $1,322 with a $51 margin of error, a survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities; the Zillow asking-rent index equals 99.5% of that amount. In contrast, the HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is $1,366, an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. To express bedroom sizing around the ZIP index, modelled monthly estimates scale Zillow ZORI using the local HUD ladder: $993 for a studio, $1,076 for one bedroom, $1,316 for two bedrooms, $1,730 for three bedrooms, and $1,979 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
Income and burden present a different tension: the arithmetic rent screen is lower than the observed burden prevalence. The ACS five-year ZCTA median household income is $61,215 with a $3,970 margin of error. At 30%, $1,316 monthly asking rent corresponds to $52,640 in annual required income, and the simple asking-rent-to-income screen is 25.8%. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Yet 48.5% of occupied renter households reported spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. Because gross rent includes selected utilities and the ACS frame covers occupied homes, this burden result cannot prove what any particular available unit costs or whether a prospective household is burdened.
The ACS ZCTA housing base contains 17,120 units, including 1,507 vacant units, for an 8.8% vacancy rate. Renters occupy 55.1% of occupied homes, making renter households the larger tenure group in this statistical area. Stock includes 8,687 single-family units alongside large multifamily structures, a composition count rather than a measure of rental availability or condition. Of vacant homes, 582 were classified for rent. These counts come from the ACS five-year ZCTA universe rather than a contemporaneous listing feed. Vacancy does not reveal concessions, physical quality, lease terms, or availability for a particular address.
Resale is the counterweight to the gently positive rent history. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, median sold price was $195,931, down 9.9% year over year. The ZIP recorded 68 homes sold, a 33-day median marketing time, 128 homes of inventory, and 5.7 months of supply. Sellers averaged 96.2% of list price; that is a for-sale market signal only, not evidence about rental transactions. Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by median sold price produces an 8.1% cross-source screening ratio, not a property-level return measure. Lower sale pricing alongside a mildly rising asking-rent index challenges any reading of that rent screen as a complete valuation signal, while supply and sale-to-list evidence must remain separate from lease-demand evidence.
Taken together, the evidence does not offer one clean directional story. The ZIP asking-rent index sits below city, county, and metro asking-rent context, while its own history is positive but uneven. The income screen appears less stretched than the observed share of renter households with gross-rent burdens, a difference that follows from distinct source frames and household circumstances rather than a contradiction that can be resolved from aggregates alone. Meanwhile, the resale record shows lower sold pricing and negotiating signals that challenge a rent-only view. The renter-majority and for-rent vacancy counts describe the ACS statistical area; the price and liquidity measures describe direct ZIP resales. They cannot be joined into a claim that a particular property will lease or resell under stated terms.
Important limits remain before applying these figures to an address. Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS gross rent is a five-year occupied-household survey with margins of error, HUD standards are administrative benchmarks, and Redfin observations concern resale rather than rentals. Address-level verification would need current like-for-like advertised or signed leases by bedroom count, utility inclusions, lease term, concessions, and actual availability rather than a ZORI or gross-rent proxy. For a resale-linked review, concrete checks include the property’s list and sale history, time on market, competing active listings, condition, bedroom count, and whether the observed resale figures match the relevant property type. Those checks determine whether this ZIP-level evidence is relevant to the individual property being considered.
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow asking-rent index is modestly higher than a year earlier, while the supplied three- and five-year same-month history also remains positive. However, the high-variability classification and historical peak-to-trough decline mean a single current index reading deserves less precision than a smooth trend would imply. The complete history coverage supports measurement continuity, but the discovery ranks are comparative labels among history-eligible ZIPs rather than predictions.","title":"Modest rent path with meaningful historical variation"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI, ACS median gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR are close in level here, but they answer different questions. ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes with selected utilities, and HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The HUD-scaled bedroom figures are useful modelled estimates for sizing the ZIP index, not observed rents for available studios through four-bedroom units.","title":"Source alignment does not make the measures interchangeable"},{"body":"The 30% income calculation indicates that the current asking-rent index corresponds to income below the ZCTA median household income. At the same time, nearly half of occupied renter households reported gross-rent burdens of at least 30% of income. That contrast is decision-relevant but not contradictory: one is simple arithmetic using a current index, while the other is a survey result for occupied households and gross rent.","title":"Arithmetic affordability screen contrasts with reported burden"},{"body":"Direct ZIP resale data show a year-over-year decline in median sold price, months of supply, and average sale-to-list pricing below list. Those are for-sale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transaction measures. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price calculation is therefore only a cross-source screen. It may be useful for comparing aggregate signals, but it cannot substitute for property condition, lease evidence, or transaction-specific resale details.","title":"Resale evidence challenges a rent-only screening view"}],"risks":["The Zillow index is a blended asking-rent measure across rental types, so it may not match the bedroom count, condition, utilities, lease term, or concessions attached to a specific available property.","ACS ZCTA measures are five-year survey estimates for a statistical area, with margins of error and occupied-household coverage; they cannot establish current rent, vacancy, or burden for an individual unit.","The historical rent series is designated high variability and includes a meaningful drawdown, so current positive same-month growth should not be treated as a stable continuation or forecast.","Redfin resale metrics describe direct ZIP for-sale activity rather than rental transactions. Sale prices, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list ratios cannot demonstrate property-level rental economics or lease demand."],"qa":[{"a":"They are drawn from different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Similar values do not make them interchangeable or convert any of them into a unit-specific lease quote.","q":"Why are Zillow, ACS, and HUD rent figures different?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom values are modelled monthly ZIP estimates. They scale the ZIP Zillow ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder, preserving the local HUD relationship between bedroom sizes. They must not be read as measured rents, current listings, executed leases, or proof that a particular unit should command the modelled amount.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for 78412?"},{"a":"It is a mathematical screen: annualizing the current monthly Zillow asking-rent index and dividing by 30% produces the stated income amount. It is not financial advice, an affordability determination, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence that any household can or cannot rent a particular home. Actual household expenses, utilities, and lease terms are not captured by that arithmetic.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"Use Redfin only as direct ZIP resale context. Its sold price, price change, inventory, supply, marketing time, and sale-to-list results describe for-sale transactions, not rental comparables. Annualized Zillow ZORI divided by median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio. Property-level analysis would still require matching the property type, condition, bedroom count, listing history, and current lease evidence.","q":"How should the resale data be used alongside rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1063.331276},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1078.330664},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1036.280359},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1046.677372},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1045.328818},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1042.448079},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1033.858447},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1028.165798},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1023.262815},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1029.193967},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1042.085809},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1034.101971},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1027.81842},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1024.494732},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1042.371773},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1038.045896},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1043.872415},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1055.71356},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1068.260136},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1080.146662},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1078.250233},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1077.431128},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1073.547494},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1077.404715},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1089.612747},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1097.062441},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1116.1601},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1105.963503},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1093.111235},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1097.791935},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1103.742064},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1116.36839},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1123.579277},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1132.570206},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1140.790871},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1163.005714},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1159.821267},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1162.587603},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1180.817063},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1211.423177},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1238.521246},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1242.821356},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1258.82678},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1278.198222},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1280.247031},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1306.286601},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1312.219123},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1332.486652},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1320.101207},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1316.117349},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1300.322497},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1290.227746},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1292.524241},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1292.20537},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1296.299522},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1293.158681},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1296.950469},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1277.027148},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1281.966973},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1270.407183},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1288.868399},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1287.523083},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1293.359799},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1301.53815},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1300.904107},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1307.289365},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1292.089254},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1286.018815},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1278.635244},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1283.089566},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1266.275474},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1254.792344},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1262.068057},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1278.958954},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1298.976382},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1307.423143},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1311.827038},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1315.048506},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1308.298711},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1299.741969},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1296.084502},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1291.80849},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1317.784617},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1334.209546},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1328.344253},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1318.185404},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1325.523368},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1330.35451},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1319.374171},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1302.81202},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1316.188171},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1327.757016},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1335.01309},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1340.603251},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1328.223946},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1323.713885},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1321.511879},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1321.689108},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1306.620297},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1298.823121},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1305.883605},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1316.117734}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":102,"firstPeriod":"2018-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":102,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1302.81202,"endRent":1316.117734,"change":0.01021307279618111,"cagr":0.01021307279618111},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1307.289365,"endRent":1316.117734,"change":0.00675318658314028,"cagr":0.002246013839482197},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod"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