Recent repair rather than a smooth ascent is the central tension in this ZIP’s asking-rent record. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI for the ZIP was $1,599. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a signed-lease measure for one dwelling. The supplied history classifies the current pattern as accelerating: exact same-month annualized changes were 1.57% over one year, -2.26% over three years, and 1.55% over five years. The recent positive direction therefore breaks from the negative medium-horizon path while broadly confirming the positive longer result. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.94%, maximum drawdown was 12.42%, and history coverage was 99.21%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,157 for momentum, 1,502 for stability, and 2,187 for balanced performance; lower is higher. The extensive coverage records the path, but the variability and drawdown argue for restrained confidence in any one current rent snapshot.
At the current level, the ZIP sits below each supplied wider rent context: Georgetown city context has a rent of $1,643, Williamson County context has a rent of $1,685, and Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown metro context has a rent of $1,653; each is wider context only, not a ZIP estimate. A second contrast is definitional rather than necessarily a pricing conflict. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey reports $1,879 median gross rent for occupied renter homes. That survey measure includes selected utilities, whereas Zillow observes asking rents, and the ZIP asking index is 15.0% lower. The supplied FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,852, placing ZORI 13.7% below it. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so neither ACS nor HUD should be substituted for a contemporaneous listing quote.
That source distinction matters most when the headline index is turned into bedroom figures. The supplied local HUD ladder scales ZIP ZORI into modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,273 for a studio, $1,349 for one bedroom, $1,599 for two bedrooms, $2,026 for three bedrooms, and $2,383 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents: they preserve HUD’s relative bedroom steps while using the ZIP asking-rent index as the base. The match between the two-bedroom estimate and the headline index follows that scaling approach, not a count of observed two-bedroom advertisements. A real property can differ because this dataset does not supply its exact bedroom configuration, utility treatment, lease terms, or advertised price.
Affordability produces a second tension: the area-level income screen is lower than the area median, while ACS burden remains substantial. Applying the $1,599 monthly index to the 30% screen yields $63,960 in annual income. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $100,431, making the asking-rent-to-income ratio 19.1%; that comparison is area-level and does not identify renter income or a household’s actual bills. In the ACS renter-home survey, 3,527 of 6,420 renter households, or 55.0%, were at or above the selected 30% rent-burden threshold. ACS is a five-year survey and carries stated margins of error, so the burden result is a population estimate, not proof that any particular household or unit is burdened.
Inventory adds useful constraints without demonstrating availability. The matched ZCTA contains 17,865 housing units, with 16,813 occupied and an overall vacancy rate of 5.9%. Its structure mix includes 12,663 single-family units and 1,557 large-multifamily units, so the aggregate stock is not a unit-type price table. Of the vacancies, 337 are classified for rent, but that designation supplies no evidence on condition, timing, rent, bedroom count, or whether a specific home can be leased. The remaining dataset does not connect an advertised listing to those units. Accordingly, an area vacancy rate or for-rent vacancy count cannot establish vacancy, price flexibility, or suitability for a particular property.
Geography is an additional boundary on interpretation. The 78626 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA label in this packet. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the asking index and the ACS survey are matched reporting geographies rather than a guarantee that every delivery address or listing is included identically. Zillow’s ZIP index, the ZCTA survey of occupied households, and the supplied HUD geography each retain their own universe. The Georgetown city, Williamson County, and Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown metro figures remain context, not replacements for the direct ZIP measure. Time alignment also differs: ACS summarizes a multi-year survey while Zillow and HUD are dated current-period inputs.
For a property-level decision, verify the listing’s stated monthly asking rent, bedroom count, lease term, availability date, and which selected utilities are included before using any comparison here. Check whether the advertised address belongs to the relevant delivery ZIP and whether its type matches the general rental mix represented by ZORI. Treat the modelled ladder as a sizing reference and the HUD standard as an administrative benchmark, not as an observed quote. Compare those checks with the listing itself rather than inferring a concession or an applicant outcome from area burden or vacancy. The practical closing question is: does this specific listing’s documented price and configuration fit the comparison universe being used?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June reading is $1,599, with positive one-year change after a negative three-year annualized path. The five-year measure remains positive, so the short run does not describe a uniform trend. Near-complete coverage gives the historical calculations broad record support, but volatility and the recorded drawdown make the current index a point-in-time reference rather than evidence of a durable direction.","title":"A recent rise follows a weaker middle horizon"},{"body":"ZORI is a ZIP asking-rent index; ACS median gross rent covers occupied renter homes and selected utilities; HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The lower current ZORI relative to the ACS and HUD reference values is therefore not a simple discount calculation for a listing. Different timing, occupancy, utility treatment, and program purpose mean the series should remain separate.","title":"Three rent concepts answer different questions"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP ZORI base. They provide a consistent relative ladder for comparison, but they are not measured rents from advertisements or leases. The direct index does not reveal the price, unit condition, utility package, floor plan, or availability of any specific dwelling.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled, not observed"},{"body":"ACS reports a meaningful share of renter households at the stated burden threshold, while the inventory counts identify an overall vacancy rate and a subset classified for rent. These aggregate measures help define the local reporting frame but do not establish a given renter’s expense burden, an owner’s willingness to change terms, or the condition and availability of a particular unit.","title":"Aggregate burden and vacancy cannot describe a listing"}],"risks":["Zillow, ACS, and HUD values are not interchangeable: they observe asking rents, survey gross rents with selected utilities, and administrative bedroom standards, respectively, at differing time frames.","The Census ZCTA match is statistical rather than a USPS delivery map. A listing associated with the ZIP label may not align identically with the survey geography.","Modelled bedroom estimates inherit HUD relative steps and the headline index; they do not observe floor plan, listing terms, unit condition, utility inclusion, or actual availability.","Historical gains, losses, volatility, and drawdown document prior index movement only. They cannot establish future rents, a particular property’s leasing outcome, or an applicant’s qualification."],"qa":[{"a":"The ACS figure is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. Because the universes, timing, occupancy status, and utility treatment differ, the gap measures a difference between datasets rather than a verified difference for a particular available home.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent above Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling Zillow ZORI with the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder. They preserve relative bedroom differences from that ladder, but they are not a sample of advertised rents or completed leases. A specific unit’s layout, utilities, condition, term, and availability can produce a different asking price.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"The record shows a positive same-month change in the latest year, a negative annualized result over the three-year horizon, and a positive annualized five-year result. That means recent direction breaks from the middle horizon but aligns broadly with longer growth. Volatility, drawdown, and high coverage describe the quality and movement of the historical series; they do not forecast the next observation.","q":"What does the recent historical pattern establish?"},{"a":"Confirm the stated asking rent, bedroom count, lease term, date of availability, and selected utilities directly with the listing or property documentation. Then check whether the address’s delivery ZIP and housing type fit the reporting frame. Do not infer concessions, condition, availability, or applicant treatment from the area-level vacancy rate, burden share, ZORI, or HUD standard.","q":"What should be checked for a specific property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1179.885193},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1171.626736},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1155.612731},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1177.482573},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1176.863414},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1177.125762},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1174.978449},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1194.078169},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1185.812752},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1196.646433},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1188.781849},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1202.294264},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1208.841907},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1210.397522},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1192.248142},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1193.898664},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1211.303869},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1229.325835},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1235.417649},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1227.801634},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1226.023734},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1235.24806},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1237.186058},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1239.569695},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1247.903528},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1253.222056},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1266.144486},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1257.612592},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1245.157837},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1243.979417},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1242.41373},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1252.507683},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1249.174699},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1248.289782},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1256.007993},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1263.291652},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1263.728833},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1272.827383},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1277.618954},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1291.941474},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1302.764473},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1304.738668},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1312.863919},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1314.273252},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1328.418526},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1331.946941},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1335.787999},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1336.651549},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1341.253165},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1342.011523},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1339.454969},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1335.003217},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1324.315451},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1322.963052},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1311.942944},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1319.536585},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1328.136703},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1352.1844},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1360.166835},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1367.420371},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1372.141769},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1382.988068},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1407.703643},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1434.452102},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1458.238375},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1480.205453},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1519.07444},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1568.607382},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1599.989784},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1614.172166},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1630.91212},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1648.051981},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1668.190432},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1683.301893},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1701.821086},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1702.953116},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1717.558515},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1738.11285},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1759.674828},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1753.570533},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1746.513906},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1733.714352},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1729.158618},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1723.304888},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1724.711905},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1719.843463},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1723.8545},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1728.02614},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1733.008789},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1712.199007},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1687.236248},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1668.370159},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1671.201887},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1681.110232},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1678.477726},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1672.73704},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1657.646807},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1654.329382},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1640.624667},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1643.138427},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1640.574196},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1649.634837},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1642.582805},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1634.212271},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1627.877041},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1628.747003},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1638.691775},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1648.319661},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1652.504022},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1640.376097},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1625.658172},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1603.868412},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1588.698346},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1573.85443},{"period":"2025-07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