ZIP market identifier 78628 presents a cross-market tension: the typical observed Zillow asking-rent index, blended across rental types, was $1,896 in June 2026, down 0.7% from a year earlier, while the direct resale evidence moved differently. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is an asking-rent index rather than a lease-specific quote, so it establishes the current ZIP rent signal but does not describe every available unit.
The backward-looking rent record reinforces the cooling label, although it is not a forecast or investment recommendation. Exact same-month annualized ZORI change was -0.7% over one year and -1.0% over three years, versus +1.6% over five years. Thus, the latest decline confirms the shorter cooling path but breaks from the longer positive path. The history has 98 observations and 100% coverage. Monthly rent changes produced 3.4% annualized variability, so a single current reading deserves context rather than full weight. Separately, the worst peak-to-trough decline was 6.5%, showing a meaningful historical setback. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,631 for momentum, 2,107 for stability, and 2,733 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher.
For-sale conditions add the principal tension. In Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, the median sold price was $544,877, up 4.6% year over year; 417 homes sold, median marketing time was 77 days, and inventory was 697 homes. Months of supply stood at 5.1, while the average sale-to-list ratio was 97.8%. These are resale-market observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals 4.18%, but that is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. Rising reported resale pricing alongside cooling asking rent challenges any simple reading of that ratio as a property outcome.
Wider rent benchmarks sit below the ZIP asking-rent index, but they remain context rather than substitutes for ZIP evidence: Georgetown city-context asking rent was $1,643, Williamson County context asking rent was $1,685, and Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX metro-context asking rent was $1,653. Each value has a different geographic scope from ZIP 78628. These comparisons show that the ZIP's current asking-rent index is higher than these wider context figures, yet they cannot establish the rent of a particular home, apartment, bedroom count, or lease term.
Bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. They scale the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder: $1,509 for a studio, $1,599 for one bedroom, $1,896 for two bedrooms, $2,403 for three bedrooms, and $2,826 for four bedrooms. The HUD two-bedroom standard is $1,852. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, while Zillow ZORI is blended across rental types. The modelled ladder is useful for placing bedroom sizes on one consistent ZIP index, but it should not be treated as a record of observed asking rents for specific units.
The affordability screen and renter burden evidence should also be kept separate. In the matched ACS 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes, median gross rent was $1,687, including selected utilities; the current ZORI is 12.4% higher, partly reflecting their different universes. Median household income was $125,635. Applying a 30% arithmetic screen to the monthly ZORI produces required annual income of $75,840, and annualized ZORI equals 18.1% of that area-level median household income. This arithmetic is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. Meanwhile, 2,662 of 4,681 renter households, or 56.9%, reported spending at least 30% of income on rent; that survey burden does not prove the burden for any particular unit or household.
Housing composition provides another constraint on interpretation. The matched ZCTA survey counted 19,856 housing units, with 772 vacant units for a 3.9% vacancy rate, while renter-occupied homes represented 24.5% of occupied units. The stock included 16,002 single-family units and 1,971 units in larger multifamily structures. These are area-level survey counts, not a live inventory of rentable homes. In particular, a measured vacancy rate cannot establish that a desired unit is available, whether it is listed at the ZORI level, or whether a vacancy reflects rent readiness, sale status, seasonality, condition, or lease timing.
The usable conclusion is therefore a bounded comparison rather than a forecast: ZIP asking rents have cooled over the recent historical windows, the longer historical record remains positive, and the resale series shows higher median sold prices with moderate marketing and sale-to-list signals. Source boundaries matter throughout: Zillow describes a blended asking-rent index, ACS describes surveyed occupied renter homes and selected utilities, HUD provides an administrative bedroom ladder, and Redfin describes ZIP resale activity. Property-level review can check the current advertised rent, bedroom count, utility responsibility, lease duration, concessions, availability date, condition, and relevant direct sale records or list-price history. Which of those unit-level facts would reconcile a quoted rent with the ZIP index and the separate resale screen?
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP asking-rent index declined over the latest one-year and three-year same-month comparisons, while the five-year comparison remained positive. That pattern makes the current cooling designation historically grounded, but not equivalent to a prediction. Full history coverage improves continuity, while the observed variability and prior drawdown mean a current rent snapshot should be interpreted within a changing path.","title":"Cooling rent signal versus positive long-run history"},{"body":"Redfin's ZIP resale series showed a higher median sold price even as the Zillow asking-rent index softened. Homes sold, marketing time, inventory, months of supply, and the sale-to-list ratio are all for-sale market signals. The annualized rent-to-price calculation is useful only as a cross-source screening ratio; it does not contain operating costs, financing, taxes, repairs, vacancy experience, or lease-specific income.","title":"Resale pricing does not validate rental economics"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen based on current asking rent is below the matched ZCTA median household income, but the ACS renter survey reports a substantial share of renter households spending at least 30% of income on rent. Those facts are not contradictory because one is an area-level calculation using an asking-rent index and the other is a five-year survey measure of occupied renter households and gross rent.","title":"Area income screen and renter burden point to different questions"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom estimates were created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. That preserves a consistent relationship across bedroom sizes, but neither the HUD standard nor the resulting estimates are measured asking rents for particular apartments or houses. Unit condition, utilities, concessions, lease timing, and availability can all produce materially different advertised rents.","title":"Bedroom ladder is a model, not observed unit pricing"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is an aggregate typical asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it can differ from a current quote for a particular unit, lease duration, condition level, or utility arrangement.","ACS ZCTA estimates are five-year survey measures with margins of error, cover occupied renter homes for gross-rent measures, and use a statistical geography that is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.","Redfin resale measures describe sales rather than rental transactions. Median price and sale-to-list signals cannot establish rent, operating expenses, property condition, financing terms, or the economics of an individual property.","Vacancy and renter-burden figures are area-level measures. They cannot demonstrate current availability, tenant demand, concession levels, or affordability outcomes for a specific vacant home or apartment."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures use different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Timing, occupied versus asking units, utility treatment, rental mix, and survey design can all create a difference without indicating an error.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent index higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom values are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The estimates provide a consistent sizing framework, but they do not replace direct unit listings or completed lease evidence.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures actual observed rents for each bedroom count?"},{"a":"It is annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin's median ZIP sold price. The calculation connects two distinct sources for screening only: a blended asking-rent index and a rolling-three-month resale median. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or estimate of property-level performance because it excludes costs and property-specific conditions.","q":"What does the rent-to-price screening ratio mean here?"},{"a":"The recent decline is consistent with the one-year and three-year history, but the five-year record remains positive. Complete observation coverage supports the continuity of the history, while monthly-return variability and the prior maximum drawdown show that the series has moved meaningfully over time. The current reading is therefore best treated as a dated measurement, not a stable long-term assumption.","q":"How should the cooling history affect confidence in the current rent snapshot?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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