The immediate tension is visible in the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not in rental transactions. Median sold price in the ZIP was $397,790, down 4.2% year over year, while 241 homes sold and the median marketing time was 58 days. Inventory stood at 330 homes, with 4.2 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 97.4%, and 9.0% of sales closed above list. Those resale signals show a price pullback and below-list average execution, which broadly confirms the cooling rent backdrop, but they do not establish that any particular rental property has weakened or become easier to lease.
At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow ZORI for this ZIP was $1,682 per month. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-level measure or a median for one bedroom count. The exact same-month history showed a 1.2% decline over one year and a 3.6% annualized decline over three years, while the five-year annualized change remained marginally positive at 0.2%. Recent direction therefore confirms the cooling classification over the shorter path while breaking from the nearly flat positive longer path. Monthly rent returns showed 2.6% annualized variability, while the maximum historical drawdown reached 12.5%, so one current index reading deserves more confidence as a dated snapshot than as a durable trend. Coverage was complete across 138 observations. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,762 for momentum, 873 for stability, and 2,349 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are stronger, and none are forecasts or investment recommendations.
The supplied bedroom ladder converts the ZIP-wide ZORI into modelled estimates by scaling it with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The resulting modelled monthly ZIP estimates are $1,339 for a studio, $1,419 for one bedroom, $1,682 for two bedrooms, $2,132 for three bedrooms, and $2,507 for four bedrooms. These are not measured bedroom rents. The corresponding HUD FMR/SAFMR administrative standards are $1,474, $1,562, $1,852, $2,347, and $2,760. HUD figures are bedroom-specific program standards, not asking rents, so the comparison is useful for a consistent sizing framework but cannot substitute for current unit-level asking prices.
The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,938, with a reported margin of error, for occupied renter homes. Gross rent includes selected utilities, making it conceptually different from Zillow’s asking-rent index; the ZORI is lower, but that gap is not evidence of a bargain or of an overstatement in either source. The same ACS survey places median household income at $122,680, also with a reported margin of error. Applying the arithmetic 30% required-income screen to current ZORI produces $67,280 in annual income and a 16.5% asking-rent-to-income screen. Separately, 45.5% of surveyed renter households were rent burdened at or above that threshold. The screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and the burden share does not determine affordability for a specific household or listing.
Housing-stock evidence adds an important caution to the rent and burden readings. The ZCTA contained 25,598 housing units, with a 5.6% overall vacancy rate; 703 units were vacant for rent. That rent-vacant count is a category within survey vacancy data, not proof that a particular building has availability, concessions, or weak leasing. Stock also leaned toward 18,693 single-family units, alongside 3,941 units in large multifamily structures. This mix helps describe the survey-area housing base but does not identify the type, age, condition, or utility treatment embedded in the current ZORI basket or in an available rental unit.
Wider geography provides reference points rather than substitutes for the ZIP measure. Round Rock citywide context rent was $1,713, Williamson County countywide context rent was $1,685, and the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX metro-wide context rent was $1,653. The ZIP index sits near the county reading, below the city reading, and above the metro reading, but those comparisons remain broader-context benchmarks. They should not be blended with the direct ZIP history, ACS ZCTA survey results, HUD standards, or the ZIP’s resale observation to create a single implied market rent.
The label 78665 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match in this packet. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, which matters when comparing ZIP asking-rent data with ACS household and housing-stock estimates. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price produces a 5.1% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, or expected return because it excludes property-specific operating costs, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy experience, lease terms, and the mismatch between an all-rental-type asking-rent index and a resale median.
The evidence supports a bounded reading: recent ZIP asking-rent history and resale pricing both moved downward, while the long rent history remains nearly flat on an annualized basis and the resale series describes a different transaction universe. Before applying these figures to a property, a reader would need the current advertised rent, bedroom count, lease length, included utilities, concessions, availability date, condition, and building type. A resale comparison would additionally need confirmation that sold homes match the property’s type and transaction timing. What remains unverified without those property-level facts is whether the current unit’s terms resemble the index, the ACS survey household, the HUD ladder, or the resale sample.
","findings":[{"body":"Recent Zillow rent history declined over the short and intermediate periods, while the direct ZIP resale observation also showed a year-over-year median sale-price decline. That alignment is a meaningful cross-market tension check, but it is not proof of a shared cause. Asking rents, completed home sales, and survey rent measures each capture different populations and transaction stages.","title":"Cooling is visible in both rent history and resale pricing"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom estimates are derived by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They provide a consistent relative sizing tool, especially where the ZIP index itself is not bedroom specific. They should not be treated as observed asking rents for available units, signed leases, building submarkets, or a specific property configuration.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled, not collected rent comps"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen based on current ZIP ZORI is below the matched ZCTA median household income, yet the ACS survey reports a substantial share of renter households paying at least the burden threshold. These facts are compatible because household incomes, rent payments, utility costs, household sizes, and tenure conditions differ across surveyed renters. Neither measure qualifies or disqualifies an individual applicant.","title":"Survey burden remains material despite a moderate aggregate rent screen"},{"body":"The Redfin observation supplies direct ZIP evidence on resale price, sales volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It can test whether rent cooling appears alongside for-sale softening, but it is not rental comparable data. The rent-to-price screen is only a cross-source ratio and omits the property-level inputs required for an economic return calculation.","title":"Resale liquidity should stay separate from rental conclusions"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the bedroom count, utility package, condition, lease term, concessions, or availability of a specific advertised unit.","ACS figures describe a matched ZCTA through a five-year survey of occupied households, and the statistical ZCTA geography does not exactly equal a USPS delivery ZIP or a current rental listing area.","HUD FMR or SAFMR levels are administrative bedroom-specific standards rather than observed market asking rents, so a gap from ZORI does not by itself indicate mispricing, affordability, or leasing pressure.","Redfin resale statistics reflect a rolling ZIP home-sale sample rather than rental transactions; median price and sale-to-list outcomes may not correspond to the property type, date, or operating profile of a rental."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures have different universes and constructions. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A difference can arise from timing, occupied versus advertised homes, utilities, and the households represented.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI lower than ACS median gross rent here?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The estimates preserve HUD’s relative bedroom pattern but do not measure current advertised rents, executed leases, concessions, or the availability of a particular bedroom type in a specific building.","q":"Are the bedroom rent estimates actual rents for studios through four bedrooms?"},{"a":"It is annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the direct ZIP median sold price from Redfin. The ratio is a limited cross-source screening tool for comparing an asking-rent index with a resale-price median. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or a substitute for property-specific operating and financing analysis.","q":"What does the Redfin rent-to-price screen mean?"},{"a":"Confirm the advertised rent, bedroom count, lease term, included utilities, concessions, move-in date, condition, and building type. For a sale comparison, confirm that the sold homes are similar in property type and timing. Those checks are necessary because the report combines separate ZIP index, ZCTA survey, HUD standard, and resale evidence universes.","q":"What should be checked before comparing a specific property with this report?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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