The current asking-rent signal is softening even though this ZIP remains above its wider rent contexts. Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, was $1,824 per month and was down 1.8% from a year earlier. The Round Rock city context was $1,713.46, the Williamson County context was $1,685, and the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX metro context was $1,653; those are wider-area benchmarks rather than ZIP rental comparables. The ZIP reading therefore describes a higher current asking-rent index than each named context, but its immediate direction is downward.
The longer Zillow history supports the supplied cooling classification, with exact same-month annualized change of -1.8% over one year and -2.4% over three years, following a 0.9% annualized gain over five years. Recent declines therefore confirm the intermediate cooling path while breaking from the still-positive five-year path. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.7% suggests that an individual current ZORI snapshot has some month-to-month movement around it. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown was 11.3%, showing the extent of the larger retreat observed in the series. The history has complete 127-observation coverage. Transparent national discovery ranks were 2,808 for momentum, 1,029 for stability, and 2,464 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks higher; these are backward-looking discovery measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source definitions matter before comparing the rent figures. The five-digit 78681 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and the match to a Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS matched-ZCTA median gross rent was $1,963, a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities, rather than an asking-rent observation. The local HUD two-bedroom standard was $1,852, but HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI with that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,452 for a studio, $1,538 for one bedroom, $1,824 for two bedrooms, $2,312 for three bedrooms, and $2,718 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents.
The income and burden evidence gives a different view of affordability than the asking-rent index alone. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, the $1,824 monthly ZORI corresponds arithmetically to $72,960 in annual income; it is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ACS matched-ZCTA median household income was $137,819, and the asking-rent-to-income comparison was 15.9%. ACS nonetheless estimated 2,271 renter households paying at least 30% of income toward rent, equal to 43.1% of occupied renter households. That burden share was below the 50.8% Round Rock city-context burden share, but neither statistic establishes what any specific household can afford or what is included in any lease.
Housing-stock composition and vacancy qualify interpretations of both rent and burden. The ACS ZCTA reported 20,781 housing units, a 3.1% overall vacancy rate, and a 26.1% renter share. Its structure counts included 17,257 single-family units and 1,755 units in large multifamily structures, indicating that the stock is weighted toward single-family housing rather than large multifamily buildings. Vacant-for-rent homes are only one component of the vacancy categories, while an overall vacancy rate also includes other vacancy reasons. Thus, these aggregate figures can frame availability conditions but cannot prove that a particular unit is vacant, rentable, similarly configured, or offered at the ZORI level.
The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale record presents a related but separate cooling signal in the for-sale market, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $494,888, down 6.6% year over year, with 175 homes sold and a median 41 days on market. Inventory was 254 homes and had increased from a year earlier. At 4.4 months of supply, the listed inventory represents several months of selling pace rather than an immediate sell-through condition; it is below the 5.2-month Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX metro-context supply figure. Sale-to-list evidence was 98.3% on average, while 20.6% of sales closed above list and 42.2% went off market quickly. The 4.4% annualized-ZORI-to-median-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
The key tension is that both the rent history and the ZIP resale record point toward recent softening, yet the current asking-rent index remains above the named city, county, and metro rent contexts. The resale evidence confirms weaker current price and inventory conditions in its own for-sale universe, but it does not establish a rental-price cause or translate into property-level rental economics. Likewise, the income screen and lower city-context burden share provide an aggregate affordability lens, while the historical drawdown and current negative rent changes argue against treating one month’s asking-rent level as a durable trajectory. These measurements describe different populations, transaction types, and time constructions.
The practical limits are substantial. ZORI is an index rather than a lease ledger; ACS is a survey estimate with reported margins of error; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin measures observed ZIP resale activity over a rolling period. The bedroom ladder should be checked against actual bedroom count, unit size, condition, utilities included, lease term, concessions, recurring fees, and current listing status. Any property-level resale review should separately inspect comparable sale dates, property type, condition, list-to-sale records, and the distinction between active inventory and completed transactions. Vacancy, burden, and screening-ratio figures should remain area-level evidence rather than proof about a particular home or renter.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI was $1,824 in the latest reading, down 1.8% year over year. Exact same-month history shows additional annualized declines over one and three years, while the five-year comparison remains positive. That combination identifies recent cooling rather than a simple long-run collapse. The complete history and stability rank support using the series as context, not as a forecast.","title":"Asking rents are cooling after a longer expansion"},{"body":"ZORI is a ZIP asking-rent index across rental types. ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The bedroom figures derived from the HUD ladder are modelled ZIP estimates, not measured rents. Comparing these series can flag differences in market position, but it cannot identify the price of a specific available unit.","title":"Rent benchmarks answer different questions"},{"body":"The arithmetic 30% income screen for the ZORI level is below the reported matched-ZCTA median household income, and the asking-rent-to-income comparison is below the metro context. Still, ACS estimates that a substantial share of occupied renter households are rent burdened. The apparent contrast shows why area median income and household burden should be read together rather than treated as interchangeable affordability measures.","title":"Aggregate affordability is stronger than burden alone suggests"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation shows a year-over-year median sold-price decline, longer marketing time, increased inventory, and months of supply below the metro context. Average sales occurred below list, although some homes sold above list and a sizable share went off market quickly. These are for-sale liquidity signals only. The annualized-rent-to-price calculation is a cross-source screening ratio, not property economics.","title":"Resale conditions reinforce cooling but remain a separate market"}],"risks":["A ZIP-level asking-rent index blends rental types and may not match a specific home’s bedroom count, size, condition, utilities, lease term, concessions, fees, or current availability.","ACS figures are five-year survey estimates for the matched ZCTA, include reported margins of error, and describe occupied renter households rather than current listings or individual tenant circumstances.","The HUD-scaled bedroom ladder is modelled from administrative standards, so it should not be substituted for observed studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom, three-bedroom, or four-bedroom lease transactions.","Redfin resale observations reflect for-sale transactions over a rolling period; price, supply, and sale-to-list signals cannot establish rental demand, expenses, financing terms, or property-specific outcomes."],"qa":[{"a":"They cover different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. A difference between them does not indicate an error or identify a current lease price.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI different from ACS median gross rent here?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the direct ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than an asking-rent series. The estimates are useful for proportional comparison, but they are not measured rents for listed or leased units.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents?"},{"a":"The Redfin record is a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental evidence. It reports completed home sales, median days on market, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list behavior. The combination of lower sold prices and higher inventory supports a softer resale reading, while the below-metro supply level and quick-off-market share show that activity was not absent.","q":"What does the resale evidence say about market liquidity?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply divides the annualized ZIP asking-rent index by 30% to show the income level implied by that arithmetic convention. It is not leasing advice, a lending standard, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual affordability depends on household income, debt, utilities, fees, lease terms, and the particular unit’s stated costs.","q":"Does the 30% income screen determine whether a renter qualifies?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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