In June 2026, 78704 presents a split current-and-longer-path rent reading: Zillow ZORI is $1,864 per month, down 1.4% from a year earlier, although its five-year history remains positive. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not an identical USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a market benchmark rather than a lease quote for a specified building, bedroom count, or utility package. The current decline describes the index’s recent direction; it does not predict the next rent move or determine terms for an individual listing.
Looking backward, exact same-month annualized ZORI changes are −1.4% over one year, −2.0% over three years, and +1.1% over five years. The short and medium horizons break from the longer positive path, establishing a cooling pattern rather than simply extending prior appreciation. The measurement set is complete at 100% coverage, which supports the descriptive record. Monthly-return movement annualizes to 2.8% variability; that dispersion makes a single current index reading useful but not definitive for a property. Separately, the record’s largest peak-to-trough decline is 8.9%, showing that the path has had a meaningful retreat. Transparent national discovery ranks place momentum at 2,753, stability at 1,296, and the balanced measure at 2,537 among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The local bedroom ladder adds sizing structure without creating bedroom-rent observations. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,484 for a studio, $1,572 for one bedroom, $1,864 for two, $2,362 for three, and $2,778 for four. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,852; it is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. In a different evidence universe, the matched Census ZCTA’s ACS five-year survey reports $1,801 median gross rent among occupied renter homes, with selected utilities included. The current ZORI is 3.5% above that survey median, a gap that can reflect the distinct definitions and periods rather than a conflict between sources.
An arithmetic affordability screen turns the monthly index into a household-level benchmark but cannot determine eligibility or advise an applicant. At a 30% rent-to-income threshold, the current monthly index corresponds to $74,560 in annual income. That is below the ZCTA’s $106,897 median household income, and the same arithmetic represents 20.9% of that median before household variation. ACS nevertheless reports that 37.0% of renter households pay at least 30% of income toward gross rent. This is a five-year survey result for occupied renter homes, not proof of any unit’s tenant cost or burden. The ZCTA contains 30,002 housing units, with a 6.9% vacancy rate; 1,070 vacancies are classified for rent. Aggregate vacancy likewise does not establish availability, condition, or terms for a particular unit.
Against wider rent context, the ZIP’s index exceeds the Austin city context rent of $1,615, the Travis County context rent of $1,649, and the Austin–Round Rock–Georgetown, TX metro context rent of $1,653. Each scope matters: the city, county, and metro figures are context only, not substitutes for ZIP ZORI or matched-ZCTA ACS results. The comparison confirms that the ZIP benchmark sits above the three wider rent measures, yet it does not identify why areas differ or what any particular apartment commands. Its higher renter share and lower surveyed burden share than the city and county add a second aggregate contrast, but geography, household mix, and source definitions bar a property-level conclusion.
At the June 30, 2026 endpoint, resale data independently show a softer for-sale setting, but they are a direct rolling-three-month ZIP observation rather than rental transactions. Redfin records a $833,562 median sold price, down 7.3% year over year, across 200 homes sold; median marketing time is 55 days. The ZIP’s resale inventory count is 446 homes and months of supply is 6.8. Sale-to-list evidence remains in this same for-sale universe: the average is 96.2% of list, 8.8% of sales close above list, and 20.3% go off market within two weeks. The price decline and below-list average confirm the ZORI’s cooling direction, while completed transactions and the reported marketing time show a recorded resale flow. None of these signals measures rent paid, leasing volume, or an individual asset’s economics.
Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s direct median sold price produces a 2.68% cross-source screening ratio. It simply juxtaposes an asking-rent index and a resale statistic; no property matching, operating costs, financing, taxes, condition, or lease-term inputs appear in the calculation, so it cannot describe property economics. Its narrow role is to set the rent benchmark beside the resale price measure. That framing sharpens a second tension: the ZIP index is above the named city, county, and metro rent contexts even as both its recent rent history and its resale price change cool. Neither pattern resolves affordability for a particular household or forecasts the next market movement.
Every current figure retains a scope limit. ZORI does not identify quoted rent, concessions, availability, utilities, or signed lease payments for a specific home. ACS has survey uncertainty and represents the ZCTA, a statistical area rather than an exact delivery ZIP; HUD standards are administrative; and resale aggregates are not rental comparables. Concrete property-level checks cover the exact bedroom count, unit and building type, advertised versus executed rent, lease term, utility treatment, concessions, condition, availability date, and, for a sale comparison, property type, transaction timing, list history, and condition. Those records test fit with the source measures rather than overwrite them. The open question is whether the individual property’s documented terms match the appropriate benchmark, not whether an aggregate ZIP statistic can stand in for it.
","findings":[{"body":"At the June 2026 endpoint, the ZIP asking-rent index is lower than a year earlier and its three-year annualized change is also negative, although the five-year annualized result stays positive. Full historical coverage makes that break observable. The reported variability and drawdown mean the current reading is a useful benchmark with a documented path, not a stable property-specific quote or outlook.","title":"Cooling interrupts the longer rent path"},{"body":"The bedroom figures derive from scaling the ZIP-wide ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They give a consistent studio-through-four-bedroom modelled pattern, but no observed transaction set verifies them as achieved rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR remains a bedroom-specific administrative standard, while ACS gross rent covers occupied renter homes and selected utilities. Comparing all three requires retaining those different universes.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled rather than observed"},{"body":"The required-income figure simply applies the stated 30% arithmetic to the index. It sits below the ZCTA median household income, yet more than one-third of surveyed renter households are rent burdened. This contrast prevents a broad income median from being treated as a household qualification result. ZCTA vacancy and for-rent vacancy counts are aggregate classifications, not confirmation that a target unit is available or affordable.","title":"Income and burden provide different screens"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP data describe resale rather than leasing. Lower median sale pricing, selling below list on average, and several months of supply point in the same broad cooling direction as the rent history. However, completed sales and reported market-time measures remain separate for-sale liquidity observations. The annualized-rent-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screen and cannot supply property economics.","title":"Resale evidence supports a broader cooling reading"}],"risks":["The ZORI benchmark blends rental types and tracks typical observed asking rents. A particular advertisement can differ because of bedroom configuration, building type, lease timing, included utilities, concessions, condition, or availability.","ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey with stated margins of error and applies to occupied renter homes; its median gross rent and burden data cannot be read as current asking rents or individual household outcomes.","HUD bedroom standards are administrative FMR/SAFMR values, not lease quotations. Scaling them to ZORI makes modelled bedroom estimates, so a difference from an advertised unit does not establish a data error.","Redfin aggregates rolling-three-month for-sale transactions and listings within the ZIP. Median sale price, supply, and sale-to-list measures cannot establish rental demand, landlord expenses, or an individual property’s financial result."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched-ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and median gross rent includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard. Because geography, timing, occupancy, utility treatment, and purpose differ, the figures are parallel benchmarks rather than interchangeable rent observations.","q":"Why do ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR differ in this report?"},{"a":"No. The one- and three-year annualized changes are negative, whereas the five-year annualized change remains positive. The description is therefore a break from the longer path, not an erasure. Coverage supports the historical measurement, while variability and drawdown caution against treating the latest index as a precise property-level quote or forecast.","q":"Does the recent decline erase the longer rent record?"},{"a":"It divides the annualized ZIP asking-rent index by the stated 30% threshold. It is arithmetic for a broad comparison with the ZCTA median household income, not affordability advice, an underwriting standard, or an applicant qualification rule. Surveyed burden is separate evidence: it measures occupied renter households reporting gross-rent burdens, rather than the terms facing an identified renter or unit.","q":"What does required income at the 30% screen mean?"},{"a":"The Redfin block is limited to ZIP resale pricing and liquidity at its rolling-three-month endpoint. Its homes sold, days on market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list measures are not rental transactions or rental comparables. The annualized ZORI-to-median-price percentage simply juxtaposes two sources; it omits property matching and expense information, so it cannot describe an individual asset’s economics.","q":"How should the resale data be read beside rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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