ZIP 78727 presents a cross-market cooling tension rather than a single rent conclusion. The latest Zillow ZORI is $1,514 per month, a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. That current asking-rent signal belongs to rentals, while the for-sale evidence described later is a separate resale observation. The central reading is therefore not that one series values the other, but that both should be tested for consistency: a softer current rent snapshot can coexist with a slower or repriced sale market. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is only a screening ratio, not an operating result.
Same-month rent history supports a cooling interpretation. ZORI declined 2.0% over one year and fell at a 3.4% annualized rate over three years, while the five-year annualized change remained positive at 0.8%. Recent direction therefore confirms the intermediate decline but breaks from the modest longer-run gain. Annualized monthly-return variability measured 3.1%, indicating that month-to-month changes have not been exceptionally erratic, yet the historical maximum drawdown reached 11.9%, which limits confidence in treating one current rent reading as a durable level. The record contains 126 observations with 100% coverage. Among history-eligible ZIPs, transparent national discovery ranks were 2,831 for momentum, 1,837 for stability, and 2,746 for the balanced measure; lower ranks indicate higher placement. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The five-digit label 78727 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a median gross rent of $1,882 with a $45 margin of error. That survey covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it is not interchangeable with Zillow asking rent. The local HUD FY 2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,852; HUD is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. In wider context, the Austin city context asking-rent figure is $1,615, the Travis County context figure is $1,649, and the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX metro context figure is $1,653. Those are wider-geography comparisons only, not substitutes for ZIP evidence.
Bedroom sizing should be read as a modelling exercise rather than as a set of observed listings. Scaling the ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,205 for a studio, $1,277 for one bedroom, $1,514 for two bedrooms, $1,919 for three bedrooms, and $2,256 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. Their purpose is to translate the ZIP-wide blended asking-rent index into a consistent bedroom ladder while retaining the local HUD relative structure. They cannot establish what a particular building, lease term, condition level, or utility arrangement will command.
The income screen is comparatively favorable at the area-wide level but does not erase household-level burden. The ZCTA-wide median household income is $110,379. At the current ZORI, the arithmetic income required for annual rent to equal 30% of gross income is $60,560, and annualized asking rent equals 16.5% of that area-wide median income. This 30% screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. ACS identifies 2,963 renter households paying at least 30% of income toward rent, equal to 36.1% of the surveyed renter population. That burden result is a survey measure across occupied renter homes; it is not proof that any particular unit is affordable or unaffordable.
Housing composition supplies useful context for that burden and rent reading without showing present-day availability. The matched ZCTA has 15,077 housing units, including 8,210 renter-occupied homes, for a renter share of 57.8%. Its overall vacancy rate is 5.8%, and 545 vacant homes were classified as for rent in the ACS tabulation. The stock includes both single-family and large multifamily structures, so a ZIP-wide index blends potentially different rental settings. Neither the vacancy rate nor the vacant-for-rent count demonstrates that a specific home is actively marketed, habitable, competitively priced, or available on a reader's move date.
The direct rolling three-month ZIP resale observation shows a separate form of cooling. Median sold price was $449,898, down 13.0% from a year earlier. There were 76 homes sold, median marketing time was 43 days, active listings totaled 178, reported inventory was 100 homes, and months of supply stood at 4.0. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.1%; 18.9% of sales closed above list, while 41.4% of listings went off market within two weeks. These are for-sale market signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals 4.0%, a cross-source screening ratio only. The price decline broadly confirms the rent history's cooling direction, while the sale-to-list and marketing signals caution against reducing resale conditions to that ratio alone.
Important limits remain. ZORI is an index rather than a property-specific lease quote; ACS is a multi-year survey; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin records resale activity rather than rental economics. No series here establishes utilities, concessions, square footage, condition, tenant turnover, financing, taxes, insurance, repairs, or actual operating income. A property-level review should compare live same-bedroom asking rents, lease concessions and utility responsibility, recent signed-rent evidence where available, days marketed, renewal exposure, physical condition, and direct sale comparables with matching property type. The useful final question is whether those checks support the current ZIP-level signals, rather than whether any single source can answer every rent or resale question.
","findings":[{"body":"Current Zillow ZORI is below its same-month level a year earlier and the three-year annualized trend is also negative. The five-year change remains modestly positive, so the recent pattern represents a break from the longer historical gain rather than a uniformly declining record. Full observation coverage strengthens measurement continuity, but drawdown history still limits confidence in any isolated current snapshot.","title":"Rent history shows a cooling break from the longer path"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index, ACS median gross rent is a survey statistic for occupied renter households that includes selected utilities, and HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The ZCTA match supports geographic comparison, but it does not make the Census statistical area identical to a USPS delivery ZIP or make the three rent concepts interchangeable.","title":"The rent measures answer different questions"},{"body":"The area-wide median household income produces a lower arithmetic rent-to-income screen than the threshold used for the required-income calculation. At the same time, more than one-third of surveyed renter households report paying at least 30% of income toward rent. This contrast shows why area medians cannot be used as a unit-specific affordability or tenant-qualification conclusion.","title":"Area-wide income screen and renter burden diverge"},{"body":"The ZIP's rolling resale observation reports a lower median sold price than a year earlier, alongside marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals that describe transaction liquidity. That direction is consistent with the rent-history cooling signal, but resale prices and sales behavior do not establish lease rates, property operating costs, or rental demand for a specific home.","title":"Resale data corroborate cooling but remain a separate market"}],"risks":["A ZIP-wide asking-rent index blends rental types and may not match a particular home's bedroom count, condition, utility treatment, concession package, lease term, or actual signed lease rate.","ACS ZCTA values are survey estimates across occupied households over a multi-year period, and the ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP boundary.","The resale series is a rolling for-sale observation, so its price, supply, and sale-to-list measures cannot be treated as rental comparables, operating results, or evidence of a particular property's economics.","Vacancy and rent-burden statistics describe groups of homes and households, not a specific listing's availability, tenant profile, maintenance status, pricing flexibility, or likelihood of leasing."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures use different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, while ACS median gross rent summarizes occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities. A difference therefore does not establish that either source is wrong or that one is a substitute for the other.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent higher than Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They preserve a consistent bedroom progression for scenario comparison, but they are not measured listing rents, executed leases, or evidence of what any particular unit should rent for.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed ZIP rents?"},{"a":"No. The calculation simply divides annualized current ZIP ZORI by a 30% income share. It is an arithmetic reference point, not financial advice, a landlord policy, an underwriting standard, or an applicant qualification determination. Actual qualification depends on property-specific rules and household circumstances not supplied here.","q":"Does the required-income screen determine whether a renter qualifies?"},{"a":"It establishes only the arithmetic result of annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the ZIP median sold price from a separate resale source. It excludes financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, concessions, property mix, and operating income. It should therefore be used only as a cross-source screen, not as a property-level return measure.","q":"What does the rent-to-price screening ratio establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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