The central measured tension in 78729 is that the current $1,365 monthly rent snapshot is below the prior year while the longer record is not merely flat but uneven. Through June 2026, Zillow ZIP ZORI fell 2.5% on the exact same-month one-year measure, fell 4.5% annualized over three years, and slipped 0.2% annualized over five years. Thus, the one-year decline confirms the three-year downtrend rather than reversing it; compared with the nearly level five-year path, it is a weaker recent phase. These are backward-looking asking-rent measurements, not forecasts, property advice, or a statement about any particular listing. The practical issue is whether a current low-looking index is a durable reference point when its latest direction remains negative.
The historical record supports using the direction signal, but it also argues against treating a single reading as precise. Coverage is 99.3% across 136 observations, with 134 consecutive monthly returns available for the history calculations. Annualized monthly-return variability is 3.0%, meaning the path has moved enough month to month that confidence in one current rent snapshot should be moderate rather than absolute. Separately, the maximum drawdown reached 17.2%, showing a meaningful historical retreat from a prior index high. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,863 for momentum, 1,653 for stability, and 2,712 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher, but these are descriptive discovery positions, not investment signals.
Source scope explains why several rent figures should not be merged. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZIP ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. By contrast, the matched ACS five-year survey reports a $1,678 median gross rent, with a $66 margin of error, for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The current asking-rent index is therefore 18.7% below that survey measure. HUD's $1,852 two-bedroom FMR or SAFMR is instead an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; the ZIP asking index is 26.3% below it.
The bedroom ladder should be read as a model, not as a set of lease comparables. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,086 for a studio, $1,151 for one bedroom, $1,365 for two bedrooms, $1,730 for three bedrooms, and $2,034 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents because the calculation applies local HUD bedroom relationships to a blended asking-rent index. A specific listing can differ because its actual bedroom count, condition, utilities, concessions, lease term, and availability are not established by either the Zillow index or the HUD standard.
The affordability screen and the ACS burden measure point to a second tension. At a 30% rent-to-income threshold, $1,365 per month arithmetically corresponds to $54,600 of annual income, below the ZCTA median household income of $86,438; the asking-rent-to-income comparison is 18.9%. That calculation is a screen only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Meanwhile, 3,994 of 8,924 ACS renter households, or 44.8%, reported spending at least 30% of income on rent. That survey burden does not prove affordability or hardship for a particular household or unit. The ZCTA has 15,466 housing units, 14,500 occupied units, and 966 vacant units, a 6.2% vacancy rate; 460 vacancies were listed as for rent, which likewise does not establish vacancy at any individual property.
Wider comparisons put the ZIP's rent level in context without replacing ZIP evidence. Austin city context has a Zillow rent figure of $1,615, Williamson County context has $1,685, and the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX metro context has $1,653; the 78729 index is below all three broader figures. Those city, county, and metro readings refer to wider geographies, while the ACS ZCTA and Zillow ZIP observations are the local matches used above. The difference is informative as a benchmark, but it cannot identify which rental type, bedroom count, or lease terms account for the gap. It also cannot show whether a specific available unit is priced above or below the local market snapshot.
Redfin adds a distinct for-sale-market tension. Its direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation shows a $462,895 median sold price, down 2.2% year over year, with 69 homes sold and a median 37 days on market. Inventory stood at 90 homes and months of supply were 4.0. The average sale-to-list result was 98.6%, while 19.4% of sales closed above list and 53.5% went off market within two weeks. This is resale liquidity evidence, not rental transactions or rental comparables. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is a 3.54% cross-source screening ratio only; it does not capture property expenses, financing, taxes, condition, or realized performance. The decline in both sold price and asking-rent index confirms broad directional softness, while the limited supply and mixed sale-to-list signals challenge any simple conclusion that resale conditions are uniformly slack.
Several limits remain material before applying these area measures to an address. The Zillow figure is a blended ZIP asking-rent index, the ACS measure is a multi-year survey of occupied renter homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin records ZIP resale outcomes rather than rental deals. A property-level review would need the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, square footage, utilities, concessions, lease length, move-in timing, and unit condition. It would also need sale comparisons matched for property type, date, condition, and location before connecting resale evidence to an individual home. The key unresolved question is whether the specific unit under review resembles the blended rental index closely enough for the current snapshot and modelled ladder to be useful.
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP asking-rent index is $1,365 and has declined on the one-year, three-year, and five-year exact same-month measures. The recent one-year decline aligns with the more pronounced three-year decline, while differing from the nearly flat five-year average. High variability and a material historical drawdown mean the current level is a useful benchmark, but not a precise prediction for a particular lease.","title":"Recent rent direction remains negative"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI measures a blended typical asking-rent index, ACS median gross rent summarizes occupied renter homes and selected utilities, and HUD FMR or SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The bedroom figures presented for the ZIP are modelled estimates created by scaling Zillow ZORI with the HUD ladder. They are not directly measured rents for studios, one-bedroom homes, or larger units.","title":"Rent measures answer different questions"},{"body":"The arithmetic income needed to keep the current asking-rent index at thirty percent of income is below the ZCTA median household income. Yet a substantial share of ACS renter households report rent burdens at or above that threshold. This difference reflects distinct measures and populations, rather than proof that a particular available unit is affordable or that any renter household faces a uniform outcome.","title":"Income screen looks easier than burden data alone suggests"},{"body":"Redfin's direct ZIP resale evidence shows a year-over-year decline in median sold price, matching the negative asking-rent direction. However, resale inventory and months of supply do not describe a uniformly inactive market, while sale-to-list and quick-off-market indicators remain mixed. The annualized-rent-to-sold-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio and cannot establish property-level economics.","title":"Resale softness is paired with mixed liquidity signals"}],"risks":["The current Zillow asking-rent index can differ materially from an actual unit because it blends rental types and does not identify bedroom count, utilities, concessions, lease duration, condition, or availability.","ACS rent, income, occupancy, vacancy, and burden estimates are ZCTA five-year survey measures with sampling uncertainty, so they should not be treated as a current census of every household or property.","The HUD-scaled bedroom ladder is a modelled allocation of the ZIP asking-rent index, not a record of observed bedroom-specific leases, and may not match the mix of units currently marketed.","Redfin resale figures describe rolling ZIP for-sale transactions and marketing outcomes, not rental transactions; sold prices and sale-to-list signals cannot establish rent, expenses, financing, or results for a property."],"qa":[{"a":"The two figures come from different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. Differences in timing, occupied versus advertised homes, utility treatment, and unit mix can all produce a gap without indicating an error.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent index lower than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates. They scale the ZIP-level Zillow asking-rent index using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than a set of asking-rent observations, so the resulting estimates should not be substituted for current, unit-specific rental comparables.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures measured rents for 78729?"},{"a":"The history shows negative exact same-month change over one year and three years, with a nearly flat five-year average. Its high variability and prior maximum drawdown show that the path has not been smooth. Strong coverage makes the measurement useful for describing the past, but the volatility means one current index reading should not be treated as a stable forecast.","q":"What does the rent history say about confidence in the current snapshot?"},{"a":"It is simply annualized ZIP Zillow asking rent divided by Redfin's ZIP median sold price. Because it combines different sources and does not include expenses, taxes, insurance, maintenance, financing, vacancy at a property, or actual lease terms, it is only a broad screening ratio. It is not a property-level measure of realized financial performance.","q":"How should the Redfin screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1079.25843},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1089.76577},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1079.857389},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1070.003696},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1071.671342},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1081.076531},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1090.772781},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1106.403018},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1112.392434},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1119.068957},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1120.605098},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1124.507027},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1124.993501},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1133.84769},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1155.094033},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1155.119921},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1153.781811},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1138.209774},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1124.91283},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1128.844375},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1119.526903},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1129.790758},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1132.62163},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1134.264136},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1139.201641},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1145.845823},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1151.027299},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1153.26401},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1150.057088},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1151.41024},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1162.570204},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1167.276276},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1192.690247},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1185.568392},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1182.807425},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1173.829851},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1167.123008},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1165.824977},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1161.501327},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1169.483509},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1177.982143},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1180.607696},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1181.034136},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1181.082991},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1184.09138},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1190.387868},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1201.894826},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1206.328963},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1216.15477},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1219.767305},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1223.736933},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1223.374856},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1225.199577},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1232.22337},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1235.529038},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1238.983497},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1232.488315},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1235.087548},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1233.157238},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1239.608647},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1254.459663},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1250.628141},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1237.720903},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1223.580362},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1218.593189},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1213.000385},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1214.125525},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1222.027045},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1232.776986},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1248.654967},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1254.903297},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1268.81469},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1278.988672},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1308.844673},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1338.580504},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1380.285722},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1409.059829},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1453.197092},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1491.060111},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1522.368149},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1538.346774},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1556.441578},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1574.899325},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1591.430251},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1593.697135},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1600.113828},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1611.023685},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1620.714669},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1636.311081},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1634.617248},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1625.809115},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1616.47457},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1615.373489},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1611.400147},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1610.884471},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1600.690911},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1603.351667},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1585.362478},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1578.43543},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1565.749496},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1562.090559},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1542.242479},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1533.45465},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1514.887173},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1511.870621},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1508.656596},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1508.840039},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1505.593336},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1509.60491},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1515.064504},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1518.822993},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1500.560597},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1494.177147},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1489.342798},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1487.752896},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1485.159183},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1473.452717},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1459.520306},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1441.373753},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1436.467286},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1427.065598},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1425.72327},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1407.914408},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1400.33357},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1390.439548},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1388.511423},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1381.107641},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1378.834774},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1375.604577},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1374.748494},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1375.272591},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1370.058886},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1363.8819},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1355.426542},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1358.392818},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1365.039036}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":136,"firstPeriod":"2015-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":137,"coverageRatio":0.9927007299270073,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1400.33357,"endRent":1365.039036,"change":-0.025204376125896988,"cagr":-0.025204376125896988},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1565.749496,"endRent":1365.039036,"change":-0.1281881044910137,"cagr":-0.04469746507119021},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1380.285722,"endRent":1365.039036,"change":-0.011046036162649098,"cagr":-0.0022190336236797004}},"maxDrawdown":-0.17165717586434903,"annualizedVolatility":0.030180554201285553,"consecutiveReturnCount":134}}