Resale evidence supplies the clearest tension for ZIP 78741. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, the median sold price was $343,422, down 5.9% year over year. The same resale universe recorded 62 homes sold, 72 median days on market, 249 active listings, and 164 homes of inventory. At 8.1 months of supply, sales activity was paired with a relatively extended listed supply measure. The average sale closed at 95.3% of list price; 3.3% sold above list, while 24.7% went off market within two weeks. These are resale-market observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The softer resale signals broadly align with the recent rent retreat, but they also caution against treating one income screen as a complete affordability conclusion.
Zillow’s June asking-rent index for the ZIP was $1,435 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types, rather than a measure of every lease executed or every unit currently available. Its same-month one-year change was negative 2.7%, and the longer same-month path also declined at a 4.2% annualized pace across three years. Over five years, however, the annualized change was slightly positive at 0.1%. Thus, the recent direction confirms the intermediate decline but breaks from the essentially flat-to-slightly-positive full-period record. The history has complete coverage: 100% of the expected observations were present. These are backward-looking rent measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The five-digit label 78741 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey places median gross rent at $1,596, making the current asking-rent index 89.9% of that survey median. Those measures differ materially: ACS represents occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI represents typical observed asking rents. HUD’s FY 2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,852. HUD is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,142 for a studio, $1,210 for one bedroom, $1,435 for two bedrooms, $1,819 for three bedrooms, and $2,139 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents.
Income and burden measures point to a separate tension. The matched ZCTA’s median household income was $66,741, while the arithmetic annual income needed to keep the current ZIP asking-rent index at 30% of income is $57,400. On that simple screen, annualized asking rent equals 25.8% of median household income. This 30% screen is arithmetic only; it is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Yet 47.9% of surveyed renter households reported paying at least 30% of income toward rent. The burden statistic describes households in the ACS survey, with their differing rents, incomes, household sizes, and utility costs; it does not establish that a specific advertised unit is affordable or unaffordable.
The housing base is predominantly renter occupied. Of 25,953 housing units in the matched ZCTA, 23,867 were occupied and 2,086 were vacant, producing an 8.0% vacancy rate. Renters occupied 84.7% of occupied homes, so changes in rental conditions can be especially consequential to the local household mix. Among vacant homes, 1,130 were classified as vacant for rent, a category that should not be read as a count of currently comparable, priced, lease-ready listings. The structure mix also includes 9,927 units in large multifamily buildings. This stock composition helps frame the observed rent index and survey burden figures, but neither vacancy nor structure counts prove the price, condition, concessions, or availability of any individual home.
Wider-area context puts the ZIP’s lower current asking-rent index in perspective: Austin city’s broader rent context was $1,614.53, Travis County’s was $1,649, and the Austin–Round Rock–Georgetown, TX metro context was $1,653. The city, county, and metro figures are comparison scopes only, not substitutes for the ZIP-level Zillow observation. Austin city and Travis County also had lower renter shares than the matched ZCTA, reinforcing that the ZIP’s renter-heavy occupancy pattern is not a metro-wide identity. In the metro’s resale context, months of supply were 5.2, below the ZIP’s direct Redfin supply reading. That gap makes the ZIP resale picture appear looser than the broader metro resale reference without establishing why the difference exists.
The rent history warrants more caution around a single current snapshot than its complete coverage alone might suggest. Month-to-month ZORI changes annualize to 3.3%, meaning the index has not moved in a perfectly smooth path. Separately, the historical peak-to-trough drawdown reached 16.1%, showing that the series has experienced a meaningful cumulative retreat from a prior high. The transparent national discovery ranks were 2,865 for momentum, 2,074 for stability, and 2,805 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are higher. These ranks organize past observations rather than grade future prospects. Taken together with the recent declines, the variability and drawdown mean that a current asking-rent reading is useful but should be interpreted as a time-specific index, not a fixed local rent level.
Several limits remain important. ZORI cannot identify the lease terms, concessions, utilities, unit condition, furnishing, or exact bedroom mix behind a particular listing. ACS is a survey of occupied households rather than a current listing feed, HUD is a policy standard, and Redfin tracks ZIP resale conditions rather than rental transactions. Property-level review should therefore verify the advertised rent, lease duration, fees, utility treatment, concessions, bedroom count, square footage, availability date, and comparable current listings. For a purchase-oriented review, verify the individual property’s sale history, list changes, condition, and directly comparable closed sales rather than applying the ZIP screening ratio to a specific asset. Does the particular unit being evaluated actually match the source definition used in the comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP’s direct resale observation showed a year-over-year decline in median sold price, extended marketing time, substantial active listings, and months of supply above the metro context. Those indicators are confined to the for-sale market, but they create an important tension: a current asking-rent screen may look manageable against median income while resale liquidity and household rent-burden evidence remain less straightforward.","title":"Resale market signals are softer than a simple rent-to-income reading"},{"body":"ZIP ZORI declined over the latest same-month comparison and at an annualized rate across the three-year comparison. The five-year result was only slightly positive, so the current downtrend is consistent with the intermediate path but not with a simple story of persistent long-term growth. The full history coverage improves measurement continuity, not predictive certainty.","title":"Recent asking-rent direction is negative despite a nearly flat five-year record"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures begin with the ZIP asking-rent index and apply the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are modelled estimates designed to preserve local HUD relative bedroom pricing. They should not be treated as measured rents for available units, lease transactions, or a property-specific rent schedule. Actual listings can differ because of condition, utilities, concessions, timing, and lease terms.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaling outputs, not observed unit rents"},{"body":"The matched ZCTA has a high renter share and a large share of surveyed renter households paying at least 30% of income toward rent. That burden measure is useful context for occupied households, but it does not identify any particular tenant, building, or advertised unit. Vacancy counts likewise describe housing status categories rather than immediate, comparable rental availability.","title":"Renter concentration and reported burden deserve separate treatment"}],"risks":["The Zillow asking-rent index blends rental types and reflects typical observed asking rents, so it may not match the lease price, concessions, utilities, furnishing, condition, or timing of a specific available unit.","ACS median gross rent and rent burden are five-year survey measures for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities in gross rent, and should not be treated as current asking-rent evidence.","The HUD bedroom ladder is an administrative FMR or SAFMR standard, not a market-rent survey. Its scaled bedroom outputs are modelled estimates and can differ materially from live listings.","Redfin resale figures describe a rolling ZIP for-sale market. Price changes, inventory, marketing time, and sale-to-list measures cannot establish rental demand, property cash flow, or transaction economics."],"qa":[{"a":"The comparison separates three distinct evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical asking-rent index, ACS gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter households that includes selected utilities, and HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Differences between them are informative but do not mean any source is measuring the same lease market.","q":"Why does the report compare asking rent with ACS gross rent and HUD standards?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder. The procedure preserves the ladder’s relative bedroom relationships, but it does not observe current unit-level listings or signed leases. A specific apartment or house may differ because of location, condition, furnishing, utilities, amenities, concessions, and lease structure.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures actual observed rents for studio through four-bedroom units?"},{"a":"It establishes only the arithmetic annual household income associated with allocating 30% of income to the annualized current ZIP asking-rent index. It is not financial advice, a recommendation, an underwriting conclusion, or an applicant qualification standard. Household budgets can differ substantially because of taxes, debts, utilities, household composition, subsidies, savings needs, and other obligations.","q":"What does the 30% required-income calculation establish?"},{"a":"No. Redfin’s ZIP resale observation documents for-sale activity, including sold prices, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio. It excludes property-specific operating costs, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy experience, lease terms, and actual collected rent.","q":"Can the resale data be used to infer a property investment return?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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