A rising ZIP asking-rent reading and a softer for-sale signal create the central tension in 78744. At the stated Zillow endpoint, ZIP ZORI was $1,443 per month: a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a quote for a specific available unit. The five-digit Zillow market identifier matches a Census ZCTA, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For wider context, Austin city scope ZORI was $1,615, Travis County scope ZORI was $1,649, and Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX metro scope ZORI was $1,653. Those broader readings are benchmarks only, not replacements for the ZIP-level measure.
Direct ZIP resale evidence supplies the counterweight. Redfin's rolling-three-month for-sale observation recorded a $393,911 median sold price, down 2.7% year over year, alongside 142 homes sold and a median 69 days on market. It also showed 383 active listings, 214 homes of inventory, and 4.6 months of supply. Sale-to-list averaged 97.6%, while 7.3% of sales closed above list and 19.9% moved off market quickly. These are resale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions or rental comps. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that median sold price produces a 4.4% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return.
The rent history puts the current increase in a less straightforward frame. Exact same-month ZORI change was 1.0% over one year, but the annualized change over three years was negative 3.7%; the five-year annualized change was positive 0.9%. Thus, the recent modest rise breaks from the intermediate decline, while the longer path remains only slightly positive. Month-to-month annualized-return variability reached 3.6%, which reduces confidence that one current index observation captures a stable level. Separately, the historical peak-to-trough maximum drawdown was 15.8%, demonstrating material prior movement. The record has 121 observations and 100% stated coverage. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,325 for momentum, 2,339 for stability, and 2,667 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Bedroom figures are best treated as a sizing model, not as measured asking rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder yields modelled monthly estimates of $1,148 for a studio, $1,217 for one bedroom, $1,443 for two bedrooms, $1,829 for three bedrooms, and $2,150 for four bedrooms. The local HUD two-bedroom standard is $1,852. HUD FMR or SAFMR values are administrative, bedroom-specific standards rather than asking rents, and they should not be read as evidence that a particular unit will list, lease, or transact at that amount. The modelled ladder is useful for consistent bedroom scaling only because it starts with the blended ZIP ZORI index and applies the local HUD relationship.
Affordability requires another source distinction. The matched Census ZCTA ACS five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,647 among occupied renter homes; gross rent includes selected utilities, unlike a pure asking-rent index. The difference from ZORI is therefore not a discount or premium that can be applied to a listing. A simple 30% income screen puts the annual income required for the current ZORI at $57,720, compared with estimated median household income of $83,002; the implied asking-rent-to-income ratio is 20.9%. This screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. An estimated 49.7% of renter households were burdened at or above that threshold, versus 47.7% in Austin city scope and 48.5% in Travis County scope. Survey uncertainty and household variation mean the burden statistic cannot establish affordability for a particular unit.
Housing stock shows a near-even tenure split alongside some available vacant stock, without identifying what is actually rentable today. The ZCTA contained 21,868 housing units, including 10,280 renter-occupied homes, a 49.0% renter share. There were 892 vacant units, producing a 4.1% overall vacancy rate, and 339 were classified as vacant for rent. The structure mix included 12,117 single-family units and 3,947 units in larger multifamily structures. These ACS counts describe the survey area's housing inventory and occupancy patterns rather than a real-time unit search. In particular, vacant-for-rent units may differ in location, condition, lease terms, bedroom count, utility treatment, availability date, and advertised price; their existence is not proof that a suitable unit is currently obtainable.
Read together, the data present a tension rather than a single verdict. The latest ZIP asking-rent direction is positive after a weaker intermediate history, whereas the direct resale median sold price declined and sale-to-list behavior remained below full list price on average. The resale figures can therefore challenge an interpretation that the current rent uptick alone represents a broadly strengthening housing signal. Conversely, the ZIP's supply and transaction measures show active for-sale market movement, but they do not explain rent setting or household affordability. Zillow asks one question about blended asking rents; ACS describes occupied renter households and utilities-inclusive gross rent; HUD supplies administrative bedroom standards; and Redfin records resale activity. None can be substituted for another source universe.
Property-level diligence remains essential because each series is aggregate or modelled. Confirm the actual asking rent, advertised concessions, lease duration, bedroom count, included utilities, available date, and whether the unit's features reasonably match the bedroom model. Check current unit-level availability rather than inferring it from the vacancy statistic. For a purchase-side comparison, verify the specific property's closed-sale evidence, listing history, marketing time, condition, and any differences from the ZIP's median transaction. Also distinguish a seller's asking price from a completed sale and a landlord's advertised rent from a signed lease. The unresolved decision question is whether the particular unit's all-in terms remain consistent with the relevant source measure, rather than whether any single ZIP statistic appears favorable.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI increased modestly over the latest same-month year, yet the annualized three-year rent change remained negative. The longer five-year history was only slightly positive and included a meaningful prior drawdown. That combination makes the current reading more useful as a current market marker than as proof of a settled trend.","title":"Recent rent direction differs from the intermediate path"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation showed a lower median sold price year over year, marketing time measured in months rather than days alone, and average sale-to-list performance below full list price. Transaction activity and available listings still indicate an active for-sale market. These facts describe resale conditions only and should not be converted into rental performance conclusions.","title":"Resale softness is a meaningful counter-signal"},{"body":"The Zillow asking-rent index is below the ACS median gross-rent figure, but the sources are not interchangeable because ACS covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The required-income screen is a transparent ratio calculation. The burden estimate adds household context, but it cannot determine whether a specific household or unit will be affordable.","title":"Affordability measures answer different questions"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom figures are derived by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They provide a consistent way to frame unit size differences, but they are not measured bedroom rents. HUD standards are administrative benchmarks, so unit-specific listings, concessions, utility charges, and lease terms remain necessary checks.","title":"Bedroom estimates are a modelled ladder"}],"risks":["A blended ZIP asking-rent index can move differently from a particular building or unit because property type, bedroom count, concessions, utility treatment, availability timing, and lease terms are not held constant.","ACS gross rent and burden estimates are survey-based measures for occupied renter households in the statistical ZCTA. Their margins of error and broad household mix limit their usefulness for judging one applicant or one available unit.","The Redfin observation is limited to a rolling ZIP resale window. Median sold price, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list measures cannot establish rental demand, rental cash flow, or economics for a specific property.","Historical rent changes, variability, drawdown, and discovery ranks describe past index behavior only. A recent increase following an intermediate decline may not persist, and no historical measure should be treated as a forecast."],"qa":[{"a":"They observe different universes. Zillow ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index, ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities, HUD is an administrative bedroom standard, and Redfin records direct ZIP resale activity. Differences are expected and should not be mechanically reconciled.","q":"Why do Zillow, ACS, HUD, and Redfin show different rent or housing signals?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled estimates created by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to ZIP ZORI. The approach gives a consistent size-based reference, but it does not measure current listings or signed leases by bedroom count. Actual unit rent can differ because of building type, condition, utilities, concessions, and availability.","q":"Are the bedroom figures evidence of current rents for each unit size?"},{"a":"The income screen calculates the annual income associated with spending thirty percent of income on the current monthly ZIP asking-rent index. It is arithmetic only, not advice or a qualification rule. The ACS burden measure describes surveyed renter households reporting substantial housing-cost burdens and cannot prove affordability for any particular household.","q":"What does the income screen and rent-burden measure mean?"},{"a":"Verify the unit's actual asking rent, concessions, lease term, bedroom count, utility inclusions, availability, and condition. For resale comparisons, verify closed sales and the property's own listing history rather than relying on a ZIP median. These checks determine whether the aggregate or modelled statistics are relevant to the particular property.","q":"What should be verified before using these ZIP statistics for a specific property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 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